And there won't really be much of a problem powering em.
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-David Ahlport

As fuel sales decline either by people not driving or by people switching to more fuel efficient vehicles, so will the gas tax revenue that funds highways. Since no one seems to want to pay any taxes at all, the roads and bridges will continue to crumble making driving a poor option even if the fuel issues are solved.

Driving is going way down before it starts going up again if it ever does.

http://www.pnl.gov/news/release.asp?id=204

Since, PHEVs are expected to cost about $6,000 to $10,000 more than existing vehicles - mostly due to the cost of batteries -- researchers evaluated how long it might take owners to break even on fuel costs. Depending on the price of gas and the cost of electricity, estimates range from five to eight years - about the current lifespan of a battery.

Figure 1 shows the life-cycle-cost analysis results for purchasing and operating a PHEV compared with a conventional high-fuel-efficiency vehicle such as a Honda Civic. The results are expressed by diagonal break-even lines for varying gasoline prices. Each break-even line in the figure assumes a specific gasoline price and delineates a region below and to the left of the line in which a PHEV would have a lower life-cycle cost than a conventional vehicle and therefore would justify a premium purchase price. This is described as a cost-effective region. Above each line is the region where the PHEV is not cost effective. The premium can be read off the horizontal axis for a given electricity price. For instance, using California average residential rates of 12 cents per kWh and a price of the gasoline of $2.50 per gallon, the break-even point for the purchasing premium is $2,000 for California.  In the state of Ohio, with lower electric rates, the break-even point at the gasoline price of $2.50 per gallon is $3,000 (see Figure 1).

estimating based on their chart, at current CA residential electricity price (rounding up: 15¢/kWh) and gas price ($4.50/gal) i think the break-even point -- the sticker price difference between honda civic and honda civic plug-in at which the "plug-in" pays for itself over the life of the car -- is somewhere above $6,000.

current price difference between civic and civic hybrid is a little hard to figure out because the range for civic sedans runs from $15,000 (stick shift and spartan trim, compared to hybrid) to $21,000 depending on options. hybrid price is about $22,000.

over the next few years almost all of today's cars in the USA will lose tons of resale value because of sucky fuel efficiency. on top of that, there's no telling how much people will be able to borrow, given current circumstances. how long will our slump last? how much will banks be willing or able to lend. how many people will get pulled into the red. ok. yada yada yada, bears instead of bulls, financial crisis, etc.

this puts the plug-in hybrid and even the regular HEV somewhere out in dreamland for most households. under similar circumstances japan transformed its kei car program to make the cars more appealing and useful to families. if gas prices are really up for good now we may have to do the same thing, at least until affordable 5-seater EVs are available -- unless we're willing to subsidize HEVs to the tune of something like $5000 per, for the whole fleet. or more.

Vanpooling

Telecommuting

Shorter work weeks

Job sharing

Increased frequency of bus routes

All these are short term options that will take the edge off a lot faster than replacing our car fleet with whatever whizbang new vehicle comes along.

grist.org

but not sure about...

...car sharing services, because i don't know how actual trips these would offset, in moderate to low density america. (did people notice the miles driven dropped much more outside the cities?)

...telecommuting, because fewer people will be pushing paper, not more, as the twenty-teens get going.

...job sharing, because ditto, and if money's tight, "i need the hours."

got nothing against NEVs of the future. current crop: seems like a lot of money to pay not to be able to use the highway. GEMs look fine. this is more what i was hoping for.

Also, while I'm at it, should I put sugar in the gas tank of their Astro van?  How much carbon would that put into the atmosphere versus them driving it around for another 10 years?

Il faut cultiver notre jardin.