You got to know when to hold 'em

Republicans are bluffing on drilling

Posted by David Roberts at 2:35 PM on 24 Jul 2008

Read more about: politics | Congress | oil | oil and gas drilling | gas prices

Republicans have mastered a political technique that seems to work on Democrats every time: the projection of strength. No matter the issue, when it comes up for dispute Republicans claim that Americans support their position; they claim that Democrats are out of touch with ordinary folk; they claim that Democrats are on defensive; they put forward bill after bill, press release after press release, stunt after stunt, trumpeting their alleged advantage.

Faced with this predictable and oft-repeated tactic, Dems cave again and again. Told they're on the defensive, they go on the defensive. They start trying to split the difference with the Republican position and shift the focus to other issues. And the public notices. Faced with a choice between bold wrongness and mealy-mouthed hedging, they'll go with the wrongness.

It's a weird form of hypnotism, and it's playing out before our eyes in the energy debate. Republicans are widely loathed, they're getting creamed on the economy, and with Obama's overseas trip, creamed on national security, they know their presidential candidate is a dud, they've got no new answers on the energy crisis they helped create ... yet they've got the entire D.C. establishment convinced that their drill-and-burn message is a winner.

And Democrats are buying it; now they're out emphasizing that they love drilling too! (Except here but not there, this lease but not that lease, this pace not that pace.) The entire Democratic Party has gone in to a defensive crouch, trying to match Republicans oil gimmick for oil gimmick -- speculator-bashing, windfall profit taxes, use-it-or-lose-it legislation, etc. etc. They are showing the American public yet again that they are the choice for people who like less-Republican Republicans.

But it's all based on a bluff. It's BS. Dems are getting duped. It's true that the public is concerned about gas prices, and it's true they will support virtually anything that looks like bold action, but it's simply not true that they are attached to drilling specifically. If they are polled in a way that sets drilling against other alternatives, other alternatives win. They want something done, but there's no need to accept the Republican framing that something has to mean getting more oil in the market.

More on this in a subsequent post.

For story: You got to know when to hold 'em
19 Comments | Post a Comment

Indeed

Noam Chomsky has repeatedly made the point that the American people NEVER supported any of Reagan's positions; in poll after poll, the Democratic positions prevailed, but the Democratic Party poo-bahs -- fresh from reasserting their control by torpedoing Jimmy Carter -- bent over and told the press that they couldn't possibly resist such a ravishing virile force of nature as the old Raygun.

Walter Karp makes the same point -- since 1880, it is the Democratic Party "leadership" that does most of the heavy lifting for Republican reactionary positions.

The 5% Project

by JMG at 3:58 PM on 24 Jul 2008

maybe the ice will break soon

The Republicans' positions are loathesome and economically disastrous, and the people want them less and less. The Democrats are confused and cowardly, so their positions don't matter, and the people want them less and less.

Maybe both of these rotten organizations will crack up soon, and we'll actually start to have some real political open space in this country, instead of the ice-jam we've had for so long.

by Russ at 4:22 PM on 24 Jul 2008

I hope David is not right

Its possible the Democrats might be agreeing with the Republicans in talk only. The Democrats endgame hopefully is delaying until after elections when the Republicans will be even weaker.

by josullivan58 at 4:32 PM on 24 Jul 2008

Answer this for me

You say the Republicans push an unpopular agenda and that the Democrats let them get away with it. Neither sound like political parties that we want running this country.

So, why then do so many turn away from the idea of a third party based on the assumption that "they can't win."

Environment be damned, as long as we win the White House.

That is not the future that I want.

Wes Rolley CoChair - EcoAction Committee Green Party US

by wesrolley at 4:32 PM on 24 Jul 2008
[ Parent ]

Josullivan

I should be clear: the Dems absolutely do not agree with Republicans on this. It is very much a strategy to get them through the next election, when they assume they'll have larger majorities and a Dem president.

grist.org

by David Roberts at 4:34 PM on 24 Jul 2008

Walter Karp a good read now

Not that I want to get too cynical, but the Democrats, since 1865, have been in the position of being the opposition party, with the Republicans in the position of being the ruling party. Historically, the Democrats didn't propose much, but were there in case the Republicans screwed up so bad that people wanted something different.

That's how FDR got elected, but he actually did some things -- partly because there was a very strong Left that was breathing down his neck. He also famously told some people who were trying to convince him of an action, "Go make me do it".

So now the Democrats have something of a legacy of doing something. But unless there is strong grassroots push on them, they will simply crouch and wait for power to fall into their laps.

by Jon Rynn at 5:32 PM on 24 Jul 2008

It works...because it's the truth!

I'm a Johnny Come Lately to the Republican Party. And you know what...the thing is, the people who are in it, by and large, are ordinary people! In fact, they are the people the Liberals never talk about. In the Liberal view of the world everyone is either, a Super Rich Do-Gooder who solves the problems of the planet with technologies and foundations, or they are hip bloggers living in condoes in Seattle's Belltown, or they are a downtrodden Poor Person, who goes around punching people and killing them, but only because the System is to blame. There is no room in the Lib Cosmology for the 80 percent of people who live in the suburbs and go to work and have health care because of their job and who pay a mortgage. The reason the Republican message is so powerful is because most people, if they took an honest look at their prospects and circumstances, would be Republicans...

by jabailo at 6:11 PM on 24 Jul 2008

I think you are right.....

David, but the key is that the Dems have to show that they're doing something for people's economic pain (whether justified or not). As I pointed out in my post today, this is not so difficult because the public is on the Dems side.

As usual, jabailo, you provide excellent comic relief- Republicans are the party of the "ordinary people"- classic- I love it- you're the 1st person I've met you actually has become a Republican under George Bush's reign- the other Republicans I know are running as far from the GOP as they can without crossing the Mexico or Canadian border....

We need to focus on the root causes of problems.

by Jason D Scorse at 6:34 PM on 24 Jul 2008

Bailo, do Republicans like bike lanes?

by Jon Rynn at 8:38 PM on 24 Jul 2008

Riddle Me This, Aristotle

Bailo, do Republicans like bike lanes?

I am a Republican.
I like bike lanes.

Therefore, some of the class of people known as Republicans, like bike lanes.

by jabailo at 12:07 AM on 25 Jul 2008
[ Parent ]

But more Democrats like bike lanes

than Republicans, I would assume, both percentage-wise and in absolute numbers.

by Jon Rynn at 8:50 AM on 25 Jul 2008

A flawed strategy but possibly the only one

It is a strategy and I'm glad that was clarified. Unfortunately, it may be the only strategy available in this short time period. The Republican leadership and the Drill Here, Drill Now crowd has millions backing their campaign, just to convince the American people that drilling will lower their gas prices. So they've already created the discourse (they've been creating it for years) and poll after poll says that Americans are saying "drill in my backyard if it will lower gas prices." This offshore drilling cropped up in a matter of days when Congress returned from recess in early July and reached a fever pitch of hysteria within a week. With that kind of time scale there's not much hope of changing the discourse that has been in place for years. At this point it's a matter of stalling long enough to make Americans realize that there are other options.

Congress will be recessing after next week and it is during that month that we have to push with everything we have. The House and Senate will reconvene in September and be forced to act. During August, we have to pressure them to act in the country's best interest.

http://www.sierraclub.org/wildlegacy/blog/

by MattKirby at 9:35 AM on 25 Jul 2008

But there's no short-term solution

to higher prices -- but there has to be some kind of alternative proposal, or else the Republicans have the only proposal, unless it's just "not that proposal".

The only thing I can think of is to push immediately building high-speed rail, light rail, any rail, putting freight on rail, mortgages near transit, etc. -- mandate all plug-ins by some date? But none of this helps people in the short-term -- but then, neither does drilling.

by Jon Rynn at 10:07 AM on 25 Jul 2008

A-S-S-U-M-E

I would assume, both percentage-wise and in absolute numbers.

This is what happens when you assume:

http://youtube.com/watch?v=tKlWGZHEO7Q

by jabailo at 10:38 AM on 25 Jul 2008

My clarification

No the Democrats don't agree with the Republicans, but as David accurately notes the Democrats have a special talent for folding.

I am hoping the Democrats won't fold on oil drilling.

by josullivan58 at 11:02 AM on 25 Jul 2008

Pelosi holding firm

check it

http://www.upi.com/Top_News/2008/07/24/Pelosi_House_wont_ ...

We need to focus on the root causes of problems.

by Jason D Scorse at 11:26 AM on 25 Jul 2008

truth?

part of post from jabailo "have health care because of their job"

The republican politicians are the ones backing efforts by employers to stop providing health care benefits and shift the cost to the individual employees.

by zqahtt at 7:01 PM on 25 Jul 2008
[ Parent ]

What The Democrats Are

The Republicans are the party of the business class and represent the most right wing values of corporate America. The Democrats are supposed to represent average folks, but instead are merely the liberal voice of corporate America.* Not much of a choice, though that's not my point.

The reason that Democrats cave so easily is that they don't represent the right values in the first place. Democrats get massive contributions from corporations just as Republicans do. Bill Clinton actually got more financial support from the ruling class than George Bush did when they ran against each other.

If you support private autos, as the Democrats do, you also support the oil and auto industries along with all other industries needed for private auto travel, despite public comments to the contrary. So when Republicans say that high gas prices are hurting people and that we must drill as much as possible, you have no choice but to either agree or propose other destructive methods to continue our ecologically destructive lifestyles. It takes people with alternative visions to oppose destructive policies unequivocally and not cave in to crap like this. There is no chance that Democrats will ever do this.

* The Progressive Caucus is obviously not included in this description, but it's less than 10% of the Democratic Party and is much closer in ideology to the Green Party that to its own.

by Wolverine at 12:33 PM on 26 Jul 2008

Yep Wolvi

Appealing to conventional wisdom, that is what the party does. leadershop doesn't lead it panders to the lowest common mass delusion in the media.

Reality has to break through if change is going to happen. Do we have enough influence to get that to happen? As an amorphous movement.

I think we have leaders who want to do it, Gore and others. How do we help them get the message across? Donating to and supporting most environmental orgs seems useless, as they have become shills for lobbying as usual.

It's a conundrum.

http://amazngdrx.blogharbor.com/blog John Schneider, Northern Wisconsin

by amazingdrx at 9:57 PM on 27 Jul 2008

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