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Climate change ideas for On Day One

A UN Dispatch-Grist collaboration

Posted by Ideas for On Day One (Guest Contributor) at 12:02 PM on 23 Jun 2008



This week marks the twentieth anniversary of NASA Scientist James Hansen's groundbreaking Congressional testimony on global warming, an event that put climate change squarely on the political agenda. In honor of the anniversary, UN Dispatch, On Day One, and Grist are partnering to discuss ideas the next president can adopt to take on climate change. We are joined by a panel of experts who will weigh in on ideas submitted to On Day One by everyday users concerned about the climate crisis.

Our first idea comes from On Day One user wise old owl, who suggests we decentralize energy production.

Decentralized energy production through use of renewables (roof-top solar as well as solar farms, together with geothermal, tidal, and wind) can be transferred across our national grid to areas where it is needed from areas with higher productivity and/or lower need, which would change on a dynamic basis. This would eliminate centralized generating facilities as "targets" for terrorists, and eliminate the "control mentality" of large, centralized for-profit utilities.

Grist writers Kate Sheppard and David Roberts; President of Climate Advisers Nigel Purvis; and Timothy B. Hurst of Red, Green and Blue and EcoPolitology, each respond below the fold.

Kate Sheppard

This strikes me as important, because this is one of the ideas that people could start working on without the federal government. The ability to connect to the grid and sell energy back to your local supplier is based on state and local laws, primarily. I know in New Jersey there are farmers along the Delaware Bay, which has great wind capacity (and doesn't have the prized "views" that folks along the Atlantic Coast are worried about impairing), who would love to build wind turbines and start selling back to the grid, but they're prevented by state laws. It's not only a tremendous opportunity to become energy independent and to curb emissions, but it's also an economic opportunity for individuals and small businesses. This is something that folks should be lobbying for at the local and state levels now, which would help create more pressure to do the things nationally that would need to be done to make this happen.

But then, of course, there's the bigger problem of revamping the grid to make this possible. Oilman-turned-clean-energy-evangelist T. Boone Pickens was on the Hill just last week testifying about how the country's transmission problems are preventing wind from becoming a major source of power. Pickens is attempting to build the world's largest wind farm in Texas. Right now though, it would be impossible to get solar energy from Arizona to Seattle, or wind energy from Texas to the surrounding states. It would require a a lot of new transmission lines, and that would probably take a significant amount of public investment at this point. Some states, like Texas, have already started adding and expanding transmission lines, but there really needs to be a national effort in order to connect all these localities.

On the federal level, though, another major hindrance right now is the lack of stability in the renewable industries, because Congress has failed to pass tax credit extensions multiple times. There's a $54 billion tax package hanging in the balance in Congress right now that would extend tax breaks for renewable energy that are set to expire at the end of this year. This includes a six-year extension of the investment tax credit for solar energy; a three-year extension of the production tax credit for biomass, geothermal, hydropower, landfill gas, and solid waste; and a one-year extension of the production tax credit for wind energy. There are also incentives for the production of renewable fuels such as biodiesel and cellulosic biofuels, incentives for companies that produce energy-efficient products, and incentives to improve efficiency in commercial and residential buildings. The House has passed the package repeatedly, but it's failed in the Senate six times now.

Folks in the renewables industry are starting to get nervous as we near the expiration of those credits at the end of this year, and I've talked to people who work with trade organizations that represent renewable-energy firms on the Hill who say they're already seeing a slowing of growth in the sector because companies are hesitant to start new projects without the assurance that these credits will be available. Passing those credits now would be a significant step toward decentralizing energy

Nigel Purvis, President of Climate Advisers

Opening and expanding the grid to promote green competition makes a lot of sense. Of course, we also need to find ways to ensure that the companies that paid for today's grid recoup their investment in a green energy future. One way to do this would be to create financial incentives for today's utilities to improve the energy efficiency of their customer's homes, schools, factories and office buildings, as Duke Power CEO Jim Rogers has proposed. The cleanest power plant is the one that doesn't have to be built. And greater investment in energy efficiency would increase incomes and economic growth, making it one of the clearest 'no regrets' climate change solutions.

David Roberts

I think large, central-generation power plants are on the wane, for reasons as much economic as environmental. The cost of power plants has been spiking and there's been a concomitant surge in interest in smaller, faster, lower-risk investment options. There's big private money flooding into this area and orders of magnitude more ready to go pending the lowering of a few barriers.

Keep in mind that there are two kinds of decentralized energy. One is solar panels, small wind turbines, combined heat and power systems, geothermal heat pumps, and other sources of energy that can be owned and operated by communities, business, or individuals. The other is utility-scale renewable power farms, mostly wind and concentrated solar (CSP). These are large and centralized insofar as they clustered together, but they are decentralized in that they are made up of multiple independent units. They are, in the jargon, modular.

Both have their merits -- 207 merits, according to Amory Lovins. A system based on some mix of the two would get you graceful failure (individual units can go out without imperiling overall supply), safety (it's difficult for terrorists or natural disasters to take out power plants that are spread out), dispatchability (it's almost always windy or sunny somewhere in a large geographical area), and speed (units are smaller and cheaper and thus can be built more quickly).

As in so many cases, what's needed is a combination of regulatory reform and investment. Right now electricity sector regulations are heavily biased in favor of central plants, for reasons varied and painfully wonky. In terms of investment, we need to put far, far more public money into clean energy R&D , and we need to get serious about infrastructure, particularly building a smart grid that can intelligently coordinate distributed resources. We also need innovative funding mechanisms (like Berkley, Calif.'s rooftop solar program or Shai Agassi's Project Better Place in Israel) to overcome the primary barrier to deployment, which is high upfront capital costs.

Just to end with a metaphor: The move from central to decentralized power will mirror the move from mainframes to desktop PCs. The democratization of computing power not only made IT cheaper, it is helping invigorate democracy itself as citizens learn to talk, learn, and work together directly, without intermediaries. Thus has come a flood of innovations and serendipities we never could have predicted in advance. Another flood will come with the decentralization of power.

Timothy B. Hurst, Red Green and Blue and EcoPolitology

The biggest obstacle to decentralizing our system of electricity generation and transmission has been, and will continue to be, the institutional structures working to keep it centralized. For us to transition to a system that favors decentralized or "distributed" generation, we would need substantive changes in policies at the local, state, and federal levels -- not to mention cultural shifts at the utilities themselves.

Thus far, the favored policy mechanisms for developing renewable energy in this country have been tax credits, and more recently at the state level, renewables portfolio standards (RPS). But the problem is that federal investment tax credits for renewable energy (ITCs), and production tax credits (PTCs) have not provided the steady, long term investment security that is needed to make renewable energy a substantial portion of our electricity mix.

Instead, the one and two-year extensions of the tax credits interspersed with periods of no federal support whatsoever, have given us "feast or famine" cycles of clean energy development, whereby, renewable energy development ebbs and flows with the shifting political tides.

The tax credit/RPS model does little to encourage proliferation of the kind of small-scale renewable energy generation Mr. Owl refers to in his question. For example, the PTC is only applicable to those entities with a large enough tax liability to make a tax credit worthwhile (usually multinational energy companies). Excluded from taking advantage of the PTC are most individuals, churches, schools, water districts, neighborhood associations, or any other not-for-profit organization.

I submit that the best way to develop this country's renewable energy sources is not necessarily to extend those languishing tax credits for another couple of years, but rather to democratize the grid by guaranteeing a fixed tariff for anyone who puts electricity back on it. The "feed-in tariff" model is the primary reason that half of the world's installed solar PV is in Germany. German feed-in laws require utilities to pay a specific tariff based on the technology used to generate the electricity. The idea behind the different payouts is that they will eventually drive down prices of the more expensive technologies so they become more competitive with other sources. Thanks to the feed-in, Germany now gets about 15 percent of its electricity from renewable sources, at an added monthly cost of about $1.69 per household.

In the U.S., on the other hand, those who put solar, small wind, biomass, etc. back on the grid are lucky if they can benefit from a local "net-metering" policy, which allows meters to spin backwards, but doesn't allow the folks who own them to actually turn a profit.

Feed-in tariffs have been introduced in several U.S. states, and most recently, a national feed-in tariff proposed by Rep. Jay Inslee (D-Wash.) may be introduced in the House as early as this week. But as I mentioned at the outset, the policies and institutional structures that have been built around the model of centralized generation and distribution will not be easy to change, and those with vested interests (i.e. the major utilities) are going to do their best to prevent that change from happening.

Part two, three, four, and five of On Day One: UN Dispatch-Grist collaboration.

Plant size and efficiency

Is it not the case that large power plants (of any type) are fundamentally more efficient?

Because they are large and specialized, they can capture economies of scale. They can also employ personnel specifically to keep them running as well as possible. Rooftop solar panels and the like can't do this. Big power plants are also built as 40-50 year investments: the kind of planning and capital-raising that home owners cannot do.

While there are definitely losses associated with transmission, high voltage direct current infrastructure should help to cut them. If so, it may be that big plants continue to dominate the grid, even once the long-term shift to renewables is well under way.

a sibilant intake of breath

Terrorism

Also, the terrorism argument seems to be a bit of a red herring. Terrorists with the means to attack and destroy a power plant could probably use those capabilities to do something more deadly and spectacular. Admittedly, nuclear plants are a special case. Otherwise, given the choice between destroying a few megawatts of electrical capacity and destroying an office building, someone aiming to maximize the fear generated would probably choose the latter.

a sibilant intake of breath
Sindark - no

But it's a common misconception.  It's more metabolically efficient to be a dog than a mouse, but not to be a brontosaurus.  The same logic holds for power plants (along with the same human tendency  to infinitely extrapolate from finite data points.)

One can certain squeeze a couple of percentage points more out of a thermal plant by driving up steam pressures to supercritical levels and maintaining very deep vacuums on condensers - both of which are only cost-effective at large scales.  But when all is said and done, these can get you at most 5 - 10% efficiency gains.  By contrast, you can get 30 - 60% efficiency gains by recovering waste heat from power plants and/or using locally-available opportunity fuels.  And neither opportunity fuels nor waste heat are easy to transport.  Thus, the most efficient power plants are those sized to local waste energy supplies and/or thermal needs, which tend to be much smaller than a big central plant.

This is no less true on the capital efficiency side of the equation.  The capital costs per kW don't fall off very quickly once you get above 50 - 100 MW for most technologies, and in some cases increase.  (Consider: a small plant located "behind the fence" at an industrial faces very little permitting hassle.  The same technology placed in a greenfield setting must go through full permitting review that can massively increase project capex - see Cape Wind as an example.)

Amory Lovins has shown that similar math applies on the maintenance side.  An unexpected trip at a small plant is an inconvenience, but a minor one.  The same trip at a big thermal plant can cause week+ long outages to accomodate the need to slowly shut down and restart the plant.  Oak Ridge commissioned a fairly exhaustive survey of actual plant operating data several years ago that found exactly this point - the overall on-stream time for small, local plants is significantly (and statistically) higher than for big central plants - meaning that your asset is not only burning less fuel, but also running more often.

Re: Terrorism

It's not so much an issue of hitting the big generator as much as capturing the nodes on the system.  More nodes = fewer critical points.  Fewer nodes = more critical points.

A colleague of mine who used to run several large utilities expressed it to me after 9/11 by saying "knowing what I know, I could take the grid down with a 6-shooter."  He wasn't exaggerating, but using actual math, taking account of the fact that there are a few critical interconnection points on the system where one big section is bottlenecked down to feed another section that are very easy to disrupt.  If you know where they are, you could cause a lot of mischief.  But this is a function of the centralized nature of the system.  The greater the likelihood is that there is generation on both sides of that bottleneck, the less it becomes a bottleneck.  

An example: in the 2003 blackout, you'll notice that the outage largely stopped at the NY border with VT and MA.  I'm told that this was largely coincidental.  New England happened to be in an exporting mode at that point, and the sudden drop in voltage as they exported caused breakers to trip.  Had they been importing, those sensors wouldn't have caught the failure in time to isolate.  Grid managers keep the location and operation of those breakers under a fairly high degree of secrecy, for fairly obvious reasons.  But a system with more local generation is essentially putting many more of these breakers out there, rendering the secrecy needs moot because the averaging effects of the system swamp out the ability of any one node to meaningfully compromise reliability.

Feed In Tariffs

If I remember correctly Germany just reduced their solar subsidy due to concerns over long term electricity prices being raised too much.

Perhaps this is an example of a subsidy program working too well, but to me it is an indication that their model might not be the one we should follow.

I also have to agree with sindark about the terrorism issue. First of all I remain unconvinced that hardened targets like power plants (especially nuclear ones) are more appealing than softer ones like sporting events etc.

And while it is sunny or windy somewhere, it is also not hard to image the T+D losses occuring from geographically distant areas being large enough to question not having generation that is "on" no matter what the weather is like. I'd also quibble over whether it is economically sunny or windy somewhere all the time, but thats another story altogether.

capital productivity

Just to second Sean's point, capital -- which generally means machinery -- can be more or less productive, depending on whether it's "down" or not.  If you run a factory, and you have a few huge million dollar machines, every minute that they are down, you're losing money.  So stability of production can be just as important as economies of scale -- in fact, more so, if economies of scale max out early.

The Soviets maxed out economies of scale with their huge mega-super-duper projects, as have many capitalist economies.  Particularly with computer-control, it has become more and more possible to use "batch" production in manufacturing, as opposed to "mass" production.  

The same applies to energy -- if you can provide small-scale generation, that is used continuously, or at least (as in the case of solar and wind) works reliably when possible, then you can outperform other energy forms -- especially when large, centralized power plants waste 60% of their energy as heat.

Millstone --

My understanding of German feed-in tariffs is that they intentionally reduce the tariff in order to encourage producers to learn to produce electricity more cheaply -- the tariffs are not meant as a permanent subsidy, more like an "infant protection" scheme -- although I don't know if that is what was going on in the case you read about.

Tariffs cont.

I'll admit to not knowing much about the intentions of the feed in tariffs. I have only just recently read WSJ articles about the subject, in which they refer to solar subsidies in the same way the feed in tariff is being described. That is to say the power is fixed at an above market price. Solar producers in Germany had been fearful the "subsidy" would be lowered by as much as 25%, although in the end it only was reduced by 8%. As I understand the motivation for the bill was the notion that Germany would be saddled with unreasonably high electricity prices for some time if solar continued to grow at current rates.

So perhaps it was understood that tariff reductions would occur but this reduction was unexpected? It seems at the very least that the motivation behind this cut was to protect consumers from high prices and not to encourage more efficient production.

Ratcheting FITs

Yes, feed-in tariffs usually have a ratcheting component to encourage companies to make their technologies increasingly efficient. In the German case, the ratcheting component was recently accelerated to appease the conservative wing of the Christian Democrats and to prevent what some warned would be a spike in future electricity bills.

Under the current feed-in tariff system, the rate paid to solar power providers declines 5 percent annually for rooftop installations, and 6.5 percent for free-field installations, beginning on January 1, 2009.

But the Ministry of the Environment recently released a draft proposal to accelerate the tariff reductions to 7 percent annual reductions for rooftop and 8.5 percent for free-field.

And while the feed-in for solar PV is being ratcheted back, the tariff for onshore wind farms will be increased from EUR 7.9 to 9.2 cents/kilowatt-hour (kWh). The tariff for offshore wind will go up to EUR 13 cents/kWh (Renewable Energy World).

Tim Hurst

ecopolitology

Red, Green, and Blue

The government

This is a really important concept. What's so frustrating is that the Department of Energy produced a report describing how these distributed energy systems are more efficient, yet we still see the politicians, and our presidential candidates, arguing for large-scale energy systems. Apparently they didn't get the memo.

Another reason for resistance to decentralization

Nuclear.

I know, I know, y'all were 'spectin me to say kudzu.

Direct subsidy diversion

Direct subsidy right to consumers who invest in renewables and conservation.  

Take the money now doled out to old energy economy corporations and energy traders (2 bucks of every 4 dollar gallon of gas), to pay for the subsidies to homeowners and small businesses who use solar panels and plugin hybrids and geo heat exchange heating/cooling.

Simple.  pay per GHG free kwh generated or kweh saved.  Maybe 10 cents per kwh for retail customers and 5 cents for utility level customers.

If we all got behind that simple plan, the market would pick the best GHG/energy saving techologies as people spent their subsidy checks to pay for the solar panels, and other devices.

Don't let the hedge fund scammers get a hold of this climate change battle ground.  that way lies more financial madness.

The same madness that has gas twice the price it would normally be, without the enron loophole.

http://amazngdrx.blogharbor.com/blog/_archives/2008/6/24/ ...

http://amazngdrx.blogharbor.com/blog John Schneider, Northern Wisconsin

Biodiesel made from what?

"There are also incentives for the production of renewable fuels such as biodiesel..."

No mention of corn ethanol. Are there no incentives for corn ethanol?

Biodiesel made from soy (most biodiesel) uses about four times more land than corn does for ethanol. Biodiesel made from Canola uses twice as much land. All share the same fatal flaw of displacing food and ecosystem carbons sinks around the planet and increased nitrous oxide green house gases from soils.  

In the end, it all comes down to biodiversity. Poison Darts--Protecting the biodiversity of our world

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