Gas prices to peak soon?

EIA: Making the same mistake again and again

Posted by Eric de Place (Guest Contributor) at 9:34 PM on 14 Jun 2008

Read more about: gas prices | energy | oil

If you believe the Energy Information Administration, U.S. gas prices will peak at $4.15 per gallon in August.

Whew. That's a suprise for most Americans, 86 percent of whom believe that prices will top $5 by the end of the year. We can be confident that the EIA -- the agency that does the country's official projection of oil prices -- knows what they're talking about. Yessiree.

If you detect a note of sarcasm in my post maybe that's because the EIA has a hilarious record of forecasting world oil prices. And even when it comes to domestic gasoline prices, it's as if their forecasts are completely impervious to reality. To wit:

In February, the EIA forecast that prices would peak at $3.40 in the spring.
In March, they forecast that prices would peak at $3.50 in the spring.
In April, they forecast that gas prices would peak at $3.60 in the spring.
By early May, prices were at $3.57 and climbing, so the new official projection said that prices would peak this month, in June, at $3.73.
By late May -- just weeks after the new forecast -- the average price was already at $3.94. And yesterday's national average gasoline price was $4.04. So now they're saying that prices will peak in August, at $4.15.

In fairness, maybe the EIA will get it right one of these days. Maybe gas prices will peak and start descending back to earth.

On the other hand, it's been reported that global oil production actually fell in 2007, despite record high prices. Less supply will, of course, tend to exert an upward pressure on prices. And it's getting a little hard to take the EIA seriously when they keep making the same mistake again and again and again and again ...

If anyone wants to bet with me on August gas prices, I'll be taking the "over."

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8 Comments | Post a Comment

I filled up yesterday

for the first time in about a month. Gas was $4.27/gal.

$4.05 is a joke where I live. Where in the country is it lower?

Glad I've cut my gas bill in half!, I'm going to have to keep cutting usage at this rate to stay in the black.. .. .. zipcar/flexcar, here I come!

zach
pennywise-poundfoolish.typepad.com

by zach at 10:29 AM on 15 Jun 2008

EmIA

Energy (mis)Information Agency.
Clearly if we are too try to find someone to blame for the present oil price crunch, it should be EIA, IEA, and CERA. These entities had been deemed credible, and no one who thought otherwise was considered to be a serious thinker. So many of the bad investment decisions made during the past decade, have taken their price predictions as reasonable.

by bigTom at 3:41 PM on 15 Jun 2008
[ Parent ]

Get Ready for $5 a Gallon Water!

Please...someone slap me in the forehead with a wet towel and tell me this can't be true:

http://gizmodo.com/5016343/genepax-unveils-a-car-that-run ...

Running a car on water has been the holy grail for car manufacturers for some time now, but it appears that a Japanese company named Genepax may have pulled ahead of the competition with a prototype vehicle that runs entirely on water and air. Their new "Water Energy System (WES)," generates power by supplying water and air to the fuel and air electrodes using a proprietary technology called the Membrane Electrode Assembly (MEA). The secret behind MEA is a special material that is capable of breaking down water into hydrogen and oxygen through a chemical reaction.

by jabailo at 8:25 PM on 15 Jun 2008

Been done by France

PS -- gas is almost $5. in CA.

by CountersTrike at 9:53 PM on 15 Jun 2008
[ Parent ]

Dimwits On Parade

PS --

PS -- do you have an extra chromosome or something?

by jabailo at 10:39 PM on 15 Jun 2008
[ Parent ]

Speaking of dim

Weren't you on some kind of majic radioactive battery kick awhile back? How is that working out? Do you really need perpetual motion water cars with these marvelous nukes?

Maybe the radioactive batteries could power electriolysis and the hydrogen could power your gas guzzler? Hehey.

http://amazngdrx.blogharbor.com/blog John Schneider, Northern Wisconsin

by amazingdrx at 11:14 PM on 15 Jun 2008

Gristwits...

Weren't you on some kind of majic radioactive battery kick awhile back?

You mean the sort that have been used in long distance satellites since the early 1960s, and which researchers announced they had found a way to make them 40% efficient? If that is what you meant, but had not the capacity to explain...then yes...that is something "I am working on".

power electriolysis and the hydrogen

I added the article asking people to refute it if they could. That was the gist of my small jibe before the blockquote. But no, you Gristwits take everything at face value...and when pressed, cannot respond to a simple query.

Gristwits...sort of like the old Second City TV skit Halfwits...

http://sctvguide.ca/programs/halfwits.htm

by jabailo at 11:52 PM on 15 Jun 2008
[ Parent ]

Oh thanks!

Another chance to talk over perpetual motion and why it doesn't work? I think there are maybe at least a few thousand other sites where you could jabber on about that.

Where plenty of other people are hanging out who haven't heard about the whole water powered car scam yet.

Just a suggestion.

http://amazngdrx.blogharbor.com/blog John Schneider, Northern Wisconsin

by amazingdrx at 7:36 AM on 16 Jun 2008

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