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A climate hero: The early years

A look back at James Hansen's seminal testimony on climate, part one

Posted by Guest author (Guest Contributor) at 7:59 AM on 16 Jun 2008

Worldwatch Institute is partnering with Grist to bring you this three-part series commemorating the 20-year anniversary of NASA scientist James Hansen’s groundbreaking testimony on global climate change next week. It is written by Worldwatch staff writer Ben Block. Here follows part one. Part two is here.

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James Hansen

The speakers at a Washington, D.C., climate rally this past Earth Day, April 22, showcased the range of the modern environmental movement. They included an activist who engaged in a hunger strike, an outspoken preacher from the Hip Hop Caucus, and a folk duo that performed, "Unsustainable," a parody of Frank Sinatra's "Unforgettable."

Yet it was a comparatively dry, 20-minute scientific presentation that brought the crowd to its feet. The speaker, introduced as a "climate hero," was James Hansen, a long-time scientist with the U.S. National Aeronautics and Space Administration.

Hansen is not a revolutionary by character. He is a mild-natured man who speaks with a soft, Midwestern tone. Raised in southwest Iowa, the fifth child of tenant farmers, Hansen would later commit his life to studying computerized climate models. With human-induced climate change now widely regarded as the greatest challenge of this generation, Hansen is considered a visionary pioneer.

Theories of climate change first surfaced more than a century ago. But it was Hansen who forever altered the debate on climate change 20 years ago this month.

On June 23, 1988, in the sweltering heat, Hansen told a U.S. Senate committee he was 99 percent certain that the year's record temperatures were not the result of natural variation. It was the first time a lead scientist drew a connection between human activities, the growing concentration of atmospheric pollutants, and a warming climate.

"It's time to stop waffling so much and say that the evidence is pretty strong that the greenhouse effect is here," Hansen told reporters.

Scientists first expressed concern about possible climate change more than a decade before Hansen's testimony. The most-publicized report came from the National Academy of Sciences in 1977. It warned that average temperatures may rise 6 degrees Celsius by 2050 due to the burning of coal.

Around the same time, Hansen, a space scientist at NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies in New York, began studying the effect of greenhouse gases on climate. His first paper on the subject, published in the journal Science (PDF) in 1981, predicted that burning fossil fuels would increase global temperatures by 4.5 degrees Fahrenheit (2.5 degrees Celsius) by the end of the 21st century.

The incoming Reagan administration responded to Hansen's predictions by cutting funding for GISS. But Hansen, encouraged by former Friends of the Earth president Rafe Pomerance, continued to raise the issue. "It was truly important for him to be heard. The issue had no traction at that point," said Pomerance, now president of Clean Air Cool Planet.

Al Gore, then a young member of Congress, began organizing some of the first Congressional hearings on climate change in the early 1980s, which featured Hansen's input. As more studies suggested a link between burning fossil fuels and climate change, the media gave the issue greater coverage throughout the decade. But in 1986, two separate polls found that most Americans (55 percent) still had not heard about the greenhouse effect.

Sen. Tim Wirth (D-Colo.) was aware of the growing evidence of climate change, in part from his constituents at the National Center for Atmospheric Research and the National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration's Aeronomy Laboratory, both based in Colorado. He wanted to make a difference.

Meanwhile, the United States in 1988 was suffering from a terrible drought. Wirth knew that if he arranged a hearing that drew a link between the present weather conditions and a trend of global warming, it would generate considerable media attention.

Wirth's legislative assistant, David Harwood, called Hansen for his input. Hansen responded that the observed temperatures were warmer beyond the range of natural variability. The year 1988 was on pace to be the warmest on record. "I didn't know much, but I knew that was significant," Harwood recalls.

Plans for a groundbreaking hearing were under way. Hansen would soon become the leader of climate science in a warming world.

Wednesday: The testimony

Where should humanity aim?

Gristmill has been focusing a lot on reducing carbon emissions. Some of these texts (by Joseph Romm) keep talking about a 450ppm scenario.

However, Hansen himself has been waging a campaign that is far more radical.

In his now seminal article Target Atmospheric CO : Where Should Humanity Aim?, he calls for 350ppm as the goal.

This means we must not only 'reduce' emissions, no, that would be too weak an offer. We must actively remove CO2 from the atmosphere. Else we face collapse.

In short, this means we have to invest in four priority areas outlined by Hansen:

  1. phasing out all coal, and implementing CCS
  2. coupling bioenergy production to CCS, which results in negative emissions energy (actively takes CO2 out of the atmosphere; no other form of renewable energy is capable of this; wind, solar, etc... are all carbon-positive and contribute CO2 over their lifecycle; only carbon-negative bioenergy can remove atmospheric CO2)
  3. investing in reforestation in the subtropics
  4. investing in biochar and soil carbon sequestration, and in a transition from slash-and-burn to slash-and-char

Other techniques to capture CO2 from the atmosphere are way too costly. Capturing CO2 via biochar is in many instances (if applied in the large tropical oxisols and ferralsols) a profitable concept.

In short, I wish Grist were more ambitious. Instead of focusing on a catastrophic 450ppm scenario - which is the certain pathway to catastrophy - it should follow Hansen in his plea for a 350ppm target.

Jonas Is Correct About The Goal

Actually, our goal should be to reduce atmospheric CO2 levels to those before the industrial revolution, but 350 ppm is clearly better than 450.  Where I part ways from both Jonas and the conservative Hansen is that humans must simplify their lifestyles and live more naturally, especially those humans living in technologically advanced societies.  There will be no magical technological solution to global warming, and the sooner humans grow up and realize that, the more likely this problem will be solved.

Wolverine, what is "more natural"?

Wolverine, it depends a bit on what you understand as 'simplified' and 'more natural' lives.

For example, the internet has simplified my life, I can enjoy online banking and buy stuff online. But the backbone is a highly complex technology.  Simplification does not always mean more efficiency or it doesn't mean that what's simple on the surface is so on the backbone.

Take the 'cradle-to-cradle' design paradigm. It can take on extremely refined, smart and highly complex forms, but it is certainly more sustainable than the simplified tricks of the current petrochemical industry.

Simplicity should not equal an aversion to science or technology or to progress.

Likewise, "more natural" can mean anything. What does it mean to you? To me it can mean making use of nature in very smart ways - but to make use of nature's resources in any case. There is no 'pristine' nature anywhere (terra preta would show this nicely: large tracts of the 'pristine' Amazon rainforest are actually man-made). Nature has been denaturalised long ago. The result of a new smart reliance on nature could be very different from the quite natural lifestyle we live today. It could, on the contrary, be very un-natural and highly complex. Nobody knows.

There's an interesting philosopher in Europe (Slavoj Zizek) who has some lectures on why we need to "denaturalise" ourselves in order to live sustainably and to "save the environment" (which actually means "saving the human race", because nature doesn't give a damn about what we do; we don't have to protect nature, we have to protect ourselves).

His ideas go against most of what you will hear basal environmentalists say.

The calls for a move 'back to nature' and for 'reterritorialisations' of all kinds ('re-localisation', 'autarky', 're-gression') are very dangerous. There's no escape from globalisation and deterritorialisation, we must just use it to our advantage (like Deleuze would say: in order to beat deterritorialisations, you have to deterritorialise even more and faster...). It might be much smarter to jump forward and alienate ourselves far more from nature, because that would allow us to develop hyper-technologies that make the human race much more performant in its environmental caretakership.

Check it out:

Slavoj Žižek - Ecology: A New Opium for the Masses (1/10) (starts at minute 9.30, plz skip the boring Lacanian woman at the start; or start with part II).

Note, for those who don't know Zizek: he hisses a bit and is hyper-neurotic (being a psychoanalist), but aside from this, he's currently probably Europe's most influential thinker. A Lacanian neo-stalinist.

Simple & Natural

The fact that you seriously (I assume) ask what is more simple and more natural is a problem per se.  If you really don't know, nothing I can tell you in a few words could possibly explain it.  All I can say is, if you really want to know, go live in nature for awhile with some people who still live relatively naturally, like the Dine or Hopi in northeast Arizona or the hunter-gatherers who still live in rainforests.  I can give you a strong hint of what simple and natural is definitely not, which is a society based on things like driving and other harmful technologies.  The less technology and use of resources you need, the more simply and naturally you're living.

But I suspect by your post that you're not at all interested in what simple and natural means.  Your priorities are very anthropocentric and you show no concern for the natural world, except as it can be exploited by humans.

And BTW, I watched an hour long interview with Zizek and was not at all impressed.  His thinking is very myopic and anthropocentric, as are those of all leftists, and he understands nothing of the natural world.

Hansen Roadblock


Is has been said that scientific revolutions do not occur through logic, but by the Old Guard dying off.   Hansen's retirement would be the greatest Renaissance in Earth and Atmospheric science in modern history.   Finally Naturo-Genic Global Warming theory, Earth Expansion, and other new paradigms would no longer be under the boot of Hansen.

Defining Simple & Natural

For "ordinary" folks it would mean CO2 neutral.
For those really caring, CO2 negative.

-----------------
Hey, jabailotrollo got revolutionary new science to offer! Show us details!
What is Earth Expansion?

Sorry wolverine, you are outright dangerous

Wolverine, I am not convinced by your simplistic call to go 'back to nature'.

There simply aren't enough caves to turn 6.4 billion people back into cavemen.

But perhaps you are advocating the mass-slaughter of people so that the limited number of caves is no longer an obstacle to the realisation of your naive dream?

My alternative would be a radical denaturalisation of mankind. Build hyper-efficient high-rise cities that are self-sufficient in food and energy and that have an ultra-low impact on their surroundings; make all productive activities part of a cradle-to-cradle cycle. And leave nature to fend for itself.

Just imagine 6.4 billion people returning to villages or bands of hunters-gatherers. That would be environmentally catastrophic. It would mean the death of all forests and its wild animals. It would mean the wholesale destruction of all more or less conserved ecosystems. It would cause mass social warfare.

The Path To A Greener Earth

Jonas,

Instead of my view being "simplistic" as you call it, it is a view that is shaped by a strong reverence for the natural world, which you obviously lack.

First and foremost, I guess you haven't seen any of my posts on the subject, but overpopulation is one of the twin root causes of all serious environmental harm, the other being overconsumption.  However, I've never advocated killing anyone.  The way to address this problem is through birth control, specifically a one-child-family policy like that of China, which has worked so well that the average number of children per family there is now 1.4 in urban areas, where most of the people are.  Abortion and birth control methods should be completely unrestricted and free on demand, and both carrots and sticks need to be used for the one-child-family policy.  That's the way you reduce human population, not by killing people.

Second, of course I don't advocate people becoming hunter-gatherers at this point in human history, mainly for the reasons you identified.  Humans have been causing serious ecological harm to the Earth for 10-12,000 years, so these problems are not going to be completely corrected anytime soon.  But the goals worked toward, whether those goals are set in the near or far future, determine present actions.  Returning to a far more natural way of living must be our ultimate goal, albeit one that transcends the hunter-gatherer lifestyle that humans have known to this point.  What humans should NOT be doing is seeking more, and more advanced, technologies, because that puts us on a path to ever greater destruction of the natural world.

Third, while your idea of all humans living in an extremely dense skyscraper environment and leaving nature alone is a quite tempting one, there are two major problems with it.

First, humans society would be far from leaving nature alone, because the immense waste created by and consumption of natural resources needed in order to sustain your type of community would wreak havoc on the natural world.  These communities would also be ecological dead zones just because of the ridiculously dense human population.  So while I'd support your idea as one that prevents humans from further harming the natural world, it unfortunately would not come close to accomplishing that goal.

Second, this would be a very unpleasant way to live, despite its purported advantages for the natural environment.  I live in San Francisco, where I find the extreme density of humans to be despicable.  The constant industrial noise and feeling of living like a rat in a cage packed with other rats is overwhelming.  (The only reason I live here is because we have a rent controlled apartment and can't afford to move.  Otherwise, I'd be in Berkeley, a much more sane city re human density.)  You're always talking about what's practical; well, this idea clearly isn't, as if even a city boy like me doesn't want to live in such a dense environment, most others won't either.  

Argh & Amen

Long after Hansen passes from this world, we'll be stuck with his alarmist's claims that politicians are already using to craft policy (see the climate security act debacle a few weeks back). And that is really the rub: his prophesies are so vague, so 'far' off in time, he'll be long gone and all this hero-worship will be for naught. I foresee a future where we look back at our own hubris and gullibility for putting any credence in a government-paid hack who uses his position to garner power like so many carbon offsets.

How many scientists of yore do we already look back upon as disastrously wrong with their theories and predictions and chuckle that people at one time actually believed the then-current snake oil? As late as 1850, current medical theory (the consensus) believed that too much childhood education would lead to over stimulation, causing nervous disorders and insanity (hence a far shorter school day and calendar than we have today). This and other examples far outweigh the number of times men of learning actually got it right. History can and will repeat itself, especially with people like Hansen at the helm, if only temporarily.

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