Staff Contributors
Guest Contributors

That nuclear renaissance: any day now

Industry bottlenecks will delay any reactors for years, maybe longer

Posted by John McGrath (Guest Contributor) at 3:50 PM on 06 May 2008

Read more about: nuclear power | energy | insanity

Kind of an important point:

It turns out that Osaka-based steel-making giant Japan Steel Works Ltd ... is also the world's only maker of ultra-large forgings, a crucial component in the construction of most new nuclear reactors ...

Japan Steel, for example, is currently equipped to supply only five reactor forging sets each year, with each set including an ultra-large forging.

So, the nuclear industry that shills sources have assured us is ready to leap in to action with ridiculous modest subsidies to avert global warming can currently build a grand total of ... five reactors a year?

That's a little short of one a month.

Nuclear isn't cheap

I used to live in Japan and everyone always said that electricity was very expensive. My power came from the Toukyou Electric Power Company (TEPCo) which is about 40% nuclear. Clearly nuclear isn't cheap. They had to shut down a bunch of reactors for several months to conduct safety inspections and repairs which had been neglected. I would not be to quick to increase nuclear power anywhere in the world. There are better options.

Types that don't depend on large forging plants

are mentioned in the article. They also don't depend on uranium enrichment plants. Two went into service in 2007.

How shall driving gain nuclear cachet?

Can't Do

You are right Cowan, but then of course you run up into the issue of cost.

But some nuclear experts argue the pressure-tube design is also Candu's Achilles' heel. "Think of a car with 400 lines into the engine and 400 lines out. Who would buy a car that had that design?" said Frank Greening, a former nuclear engineer at Ontario Power Generation.

Greening said each tube has to be closely monitored and tested, and a feeder pipe connected to each tube that carries the heat used to make electricity is prone to erosion. This, he said, contributes to the need for a costly, mid-life refurbishment of Candu reactors.



Where is the long view?

I find it interesting that so many regular participants here are glad to jump on renewable technology that has no practical path to commercial deployment, but think a few years is fatal to nuclear development.

Yes JSW has a limited capability right now. But they've already started a program to double capacity. Forgemasters in England is starting to restore their large forging capability. Doosan in Korea is capable of quickly increasing their size capacity. There are facilities in France that could be expanded within a few years. In the US there are mothballed facilities that formerly produced the large forgings. This whole capacity issue is bogus. You could make the same statements about windmill capacity, mirror capacity, etc.

Also, what kind of an engineer is Frank Greening? He must have never seen a boiler for a coal or natural gas fired power plant. Unless he was misquoted, he should be embarrassed.

Good point!

I can hear it already though.  They will answer.

Why not just tool up in China to produce these parts?  Quality is the problem.  These parts must be perfect for reactors to meet investor expectations.  Not to mention public safety concerns.

On the other hand, the renewable/conservation alternative only needs to be mass produced.  A glitch here and there won't contaminate whole regions of planet earth, like the Chernobyl disaster did.

"..no practical path to commercial deployment"  eyyh Ken?

Wake up and smell the GHG-free solutions.

http://amazngdrx.blogharbor.com/blog/_archives/2008/5/7/3 ...

http://amazngdrx.blogharbor.com/blog

Go Build It

I have no bone to pick with renewables. I've worked a bit in that area. However, I've been working in energy systems for 35 years and solar/wind was "just around the corner" when I was an undergraduate.

As soon as it all works I'm confident the renewables will be built. I guess I'm just not smart enough to see how it can be done.

Simple observation

"I guess I'm just not smart enough to see how it can be done."

It's pretty easy to see really.  The various projects now underway have been highlighted in Grist and on other sites for years.

Xcel's Colorado smart grid project, huge shifts of capital into wind, solar thermal technology investment by Google (you've heard of them right?), farm biogas projects, a big wave of geo heat exchange heating/cooling, plugin hybrids, electric mass transit.  It's all underway somewhere and facts and figures are there for your perusal.

You are not alone in ignoring all this, Barack's energy advisor was just interviewed here and he has ignored nearly all of this too.  And he is very smart.  Hehey.


http://amazngdrx.blogharbor.com/blog

Gristmillers imply Japan should run on coal

Katakanadian wrote: Nuclear isn't cheap [...] I used to live in Japan and everyone always said that electricity was very expensive.

Indeed. All forms of electricity production are expensive in Japan.


Katakanadian wrote: My power came from the Toukyou Electric Power Company (TEPCo) which is about 40% nuclear.

That leaves 60% for other fuel-types, probably coal and/or natural gas -- both of which are more expensive than nuclear in Japan.


Katakanadian wrote: Clearly nuclear isn't cheap.

Your syllogism seems to be missing something.


Katakanadian wrote: They had to shut down a bunch of reactors for several months to conduct safety inspections and repairs which had been neglected.

They had to, or they did? Japan happens to have the strictest nuclear safety regulation in the world. Hyper-regulation is not known for keeping costs low.


Katakanadian wrote: I would not be to quick to increase nuclear power anywhere in the world. There are better options.

You are referring to coal and natural gas? Japan is currently trying to exit from those hyper-expensive options.


Real Numbers

I'm very familiar with alternative energy sources. I'm very familiar with the projected costs that assure us that everything will be affordable and easy to implement. I'm also aware of the actual costs and operating difficulties of these facilities.

http://www.azstarnet.com/metro/226345

Let's just look at one in particular - Concentrating Solar Power. Here ia an article about the new Gila Bend project in Arizona.

It sounds great but look carefully at the numbers. The installed cost is $1 billion and the peak capacity is 280 MWe. That would be a capacity factor adjusted capacity of less than 100 MWe. So the equivalent installed cost is well over $10,000/kw for intermittant capacity. Why does $6000 or $8000/kw nuclear sound so unacceptable?

Oh, I know, sunlight is free and the operational costs will be very low. If you read the article, you will see that the utility will have to pay $4 billion for 30 years of electricity. If you run out the numbers you will find the production costs are about 15 cents per kw. That compares to 2 cents/kw for nuclear plants.

This technology needs an order of magnitude reduction in cost and we've been building these facilities for over 30 years with very little change in costs. When do the economics improve?

Again, I'm not against renewables. I just think we're being set up for failure by pie in the sky visons of a renewable future.

Other forging makers, new capacity and options

Japan Steel is doubling forging capacity in the next two years

Japan Steel caters to all nuclear reactor makers except in Russia, which makes its own heavy forgings. Plus not needed for Candu reactors as noted. Areva, the world's biggest reactor builder, is considering modifying its newest design to be able to make the central reactor-vessel part from a 350-ton ingot instead of more than 500 tons as required today. Another alternative is to turn back the technological clock and weld together two smaller forgings, said John Fees, CEO of McDermott International Inc.'s Babcock & Wilcox Co., which built the Three Mile Island reactor. That technique was used over the past 40 years in the U.S. and France and is still applied in China.

Other makers of large forgings, including South Korean's Doosan Heavy Industries & Construction Co. and Japan Casting & Forgings Corp., are spending big to expand their capacity.

Doosan will have the capability to make forgings in late 2009 or 2010.

China First Heavy Industries Company Ltd. recently said it is investing $2.3 billion to increase its capacity to supply 600 tonne ingots for ultra-large forgings.

British company Sheffield Forgemasters International Ltd. said last month it will seeking financing to build a massive press for ultra-large forging - by 2011 it is hoped.

nuclear

and any other source of energy has been subverted for years by the easy availability of oil.  Until oil begins to run out it is to the advantage of Big Oil and its investors to overestimate the cost of converting to any other kind of energy production and to denigrate those sources unmercifully.

Gordon Gecko of movie fame said that "Greed is good."  Well, we are now experiencing the problems which that attitude exemplifies and will suffer more until regulations are re-imposed upon the offending corporations.  Other sources of energy production should not only be allowed but assisted to compete against the established oil suppliers who already have the government pipelines putting cash into their pockets.

Des Emery

You are not logged in. Thus, you cannot post a comment. If you have an account, log in. If you don't have an account, well, by all means go make one! Meet you back here in five.
sign in
Search Gristmill
Subscribe
  • subscribe via RSSStay updated with the Gristmill RSS feed.
  • Add to My Yahoo!
  • Subscribe with Bloglines
  • Subscribe in NewsGator Online
  • Subscribe in Netvibes
  • Subscribe in Google
Using Gristmill
  • What is Gristmill?
  • Posting rules
The comments of Gristmill users reflect the opinions of those individuals only, and do not necessarily reflect the viewpoints of Grist, its staff, its board members, their psychotherapists, or their aestheticians. Got it?

Gristmill is powered by Scoop.

ADVERTISING POLICY


About Grist | Support Grist | Job Board | Archives | Grist by Email | RSS | Podcast
Gristmill Blog | In the News | Ask Umbra | Muckraker | Victual Reality | 'Tis the Season | The Grist List | The Bottom Line



Grist: Environmental News and Commentary
a beacon in the smog (tm) ©2008. Grist Magazine, Inc. All rights reserved. Gloom and doom with a sense of humor®.
Webmaster | Sitemap | Privacy Policy | Terms of Service | Trademarks