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A trip to the Land of Strained Analogies

More blather about sacrifice from pundits who don't really care about climate change

Posted by Adam Stein (Guest Contributor) at 8:25 AM on 05 May 2008

I see the pundits are still lobbing up chinstrokers about how addressing climate change is going to require "sacrifice -- serious wartime sacrifice." This sounds Very Serious. The only quibble I have is that it's probably not true. "Going green" in a carbon-constrained economy won't feel like sacrifice to most people. It will feel like shopping.

Meaning, it will feel like all the decisions we make every day, but tilted imperceptibly by the price ramifications of a carbon cap. Studies suggesting that the overall economic effect of climate change legislation will be fairly small just keep piling up. The most recent one was from the environmental radicals at the IMF.

So why all the sacrifice talk? Maybe because it's just plain hard to imagine what a decades-long economic transformation will look like. We tend to extrapolate crudely from where we are now. If you want to cut your individual carbon footprint 80 percent today, you might have to sell your car, give up flying, move into a smaller house, and start foraging for food.

But that's not how this will go down. Fully decarbonizing will take several decades. The process will be unpredictable, creating winners, losers, opportunities, and benefits. Come with me now to Strained Analogy Land. Imagine going back in time to meet your hippie forebear ...

Future you: I need you to do me a favor.

Retro you: Lay it on me.

FY: I need you to build a worldwide network of devices that subsumes what you presently think of as the postal service, the telephone network, television, and a large chunk of the U.S. retail economy. I'm envisioning a gadget-y thing that will, for example, let you listen to any song ever recorded, search the text of any book or newspaper, talk to anyone in the world, file your taxes, buy stuff, look up recipes, what have you.

RY: Sounds complicated.

FY: You'll have a few decades.

RY: The book thing alone will take that long.

FY: You'd be surprised.

RY: Ask NASA to do it. They just put a man on the moon!

FY: The government will lend a hand with R&D and a congenial policy environment. More importantly, you can count on assistance from several billion technologically clueless consumers and a large number of rapacious, profit-minded corporations.

RY: We're doomed. Even if this were technically possible, which it's not, it sounds insanely expensive.

FY: We'll all chip in. I did some rough math. Counting all the computers and bandwidth I've ever consumed, I'd guess I've personally contributed about $25,000 over the years to developing the infrastructure of the "new economy."

RY: That covers a lot of cookbooks! This gadget is for the super-rich!

FY: Hardly. I don't even own a Mac. My employers paid most of the 25 grand. Actually, wait, I think I left out a few things. I bought a ton of stuff on Amazon. And I've got a data plan for my cell phone. Does that count? I'm not sure. It's hard to disentangle exactly what should be apportioned to the "new economy."

RY: You keep using that term. Forget it. The old economy suits me fine.

FY: No problem. You can opt out. I should warn you, though. I'm going to tax your time.

RY: You're going to what?

FY: Tax your time. Every year, I'm going to remove three minutes from your day.

RY: Take five. I'm not busy.

FY: You'll see. Right now you don't even know what a spreadsheet is. In a few years, you'll go nuts if a webpage takes ten seconds to load. You'll be bereft if your cell phone hits a dead spot. You'll feverishly refresh your favorite environmental blogs.

RY: I don't want any part of this.

FY: Wait til you see the iPhone. It's awesome! Really, though, you can opt out. You just won't want to. Your time is valuable to you, and it will become ever more so. To maximize its value, you'll start making choices. And bit by bit, the Electromofied Librariphone will be built.

-----

There's a very simple point to this dumb little parable: Fairly dramatic infrastructural changes don't feel bad to most people while they're happening. They feel bad to some people -- truck drivers are not very happy right now -- and they feel great to other people -- wind turbine manufacturers are looking forward to their Christmas bonuses -- but most people get carried along for the ride. 

Personal conservation efforts matter a lot, particularly in the near term. Over the longer term, though, Mr. and Mrs. Average Citizen mostly become greener by virtue of living in an economy that is having the carbon wrung out of it over time, just as Mr. and Mrs. Average Citizen today are technological savants by virtue of being embedded in an information-driven society. The notion that we're all going to suffer horribly through the transition is a total misunderstanding of how this sort of thing goes down.

Obviously, my story is oversimplified and glib, but certainly not any more so than calls for "sacrifice -- serious wartime sacrifice." And one final point before I am criticized for expressing insufficient moral seriousness: The people who are going to be talking loudest about sacrifice over the next few years are going to be the ones arguing for inaction.

Well, maybe sorta

Joe Romm often argues against comparing progress in energy to progress in IT, e.g. here, with good reason. I wouldn't be surprised if we hear from him here.

I respond to your point in a bit more detail on "In It for the Gold".


mt

We Do That


you might have to sell your car, give up flying, move into a smaller house, and start foraging for food.

That lifestyle is current and omnipresent.

It's called being poor.

I live in a one bedroom apartment.

I drive occasionally and have given up long trips to anywhere.

I bike.

Many people around me are immigrants...from all over the world.

They walk.   They bike.   They carry their food from the supermarket.

Just like my mom did when I was a kid.

The only problems in the world are the people who spend all their time making gizmos to allow them to fly to Europe every day and use 20% less fuel so they can go on television and tell everyone how "Green" they are.

Whatever happened to Evan Thomas

He used to be a good reporter (for Time, by the way).  Did you know that his grandfather was Norman Thomas, Socialist Candidate for President against Roosevelt?

Part of the article was about how global warming is a nonissue, this was pretty funny:

Slow food to most people means that the waitress at the local IHOP is falling behind.

The rest was the worst kind of blather that Adam talked about, plus the added bit about carbon capture and nuclear energy as the only real alternative.

But the weirdest part, in a way, is that there seemed to be no awareness that fossil fuels are getting much more expensive, even without doing anything about global warming, so maybe something has to be done anyway?  

Oh well, thanks for pointing out the article, Adam.

Agree, Michael

One problem with my cutesy story is that it's possible to read it as fable in which we innovate our way out of the climate change problem. That's not really what I'm getting at. My main point really is about timescale. All of the "wartime sacrifice" talk just completely misunderstands that we're talking about a multi-decadal process of turning over our capital stock. There's this weird notion that we're going to just have to get used to doing without, when in fact what we're more likely see is a bunch of gradual price shifts.

And you're certainly right about one thing: on balance, decarbonizing will almost certainly cost us something. It would be happy talk to suggest otherwise. But it does appear that the costs are manageable.

Jon -- I don't know anything about Evan Thomas, but I always find it eye-opening to be smacked fully in the face by Conventional Wisdom (tm). Pretty dreadful stuff.

www.terrapass.com/blog

I can't agree.

One of the best, most promising, energy saving technologies is geoexchange heating and cooling. It offers to efficiently heat and cool average buildings and provide hot water while drawing a power load that can be easily handled by a 2kw rooftop solar system.

The installation isn't going to be transparent however as it would involve a few hours with a drill rig for your average house. Plus several days of technicians poking hole in your walls. It's not nearly as neat as something you can go pick up at Costco and bring home in a cardboard box.

Since so much of what we use energy for is heating a mass, or cooling a mass or moving a mass of materials it gets very hard to imagine the kind of transformative technology that computers and cell phones offered. We're not going to get the Mr. Fusion and if we did it would be an ecological disaster.

The human race is going to need to learn that sometimes the needs of the environment trump human needs or wants. Ultimately we can spend only so much time in what science fiction writer Ian Banks calls Infinate Fun Space, that space that exists in virtuality but may or may not relate to the physical universe. Just like I have to quit this and tackle the dishes the human species needs to quit believing in the big rock candy mountain of free energy.

It doesn't exist. It's investing the trust fund in lottery tickets.

Put the Carbon Back

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