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Sorry, deniers

Research finds (once again) that climate change is not caused by cosmic rays

Posted by Joseph Romm (Guest Contributor) at 1:56 PM on 06 Apr 2008

One more denier talking point has been debunked by scientists using actual observations. You can read the Science News article here, which explains, "New research has dealt a blow to the skeptics who argue that climate change is all due to cosmic rays rather than to man-made greenhouse gases."

You can read the original article, just published by the Institute of Physics' Environmental Research Letters, "Testing the proposed causal link between cosmic rays and cloud cover," online here. The major finding:

[N]o evidence could be found of changes in the cloud cover from known changes in the cosmic ray ionization rate.

Here is the full abstract:

A decrease in the globally averaged low level cloud cover, deduced from the ISCCP infrared data, as the cosmic ray intensity decreased during the solar cycle 22 was observed by two groups. The groups went on to hypothesize that the decrease in ionization due to cosmic rays causes the decrease in cloud cover, thereby explaining a large part of the currently observed global warming. We have examined this hypothesis to look for evidence to corroborate it. None has been found and so our conclusions are to doubt it. From the absence of corroborative evidence, we estimate that less than 23 percent, at the 95 percent confidence level, of the 11 year cycle change in the globally averaged cloud cover observed in solar cycle 22 is due to the change in the rate of ionization from the solar modulation of cosmic rays.

You can read more debunking here.

Yes, I know, the whole idea should have died last year with the study in Proceedings of the Royal Society A, "Recent oppositely directed trends in solar climate forcings and the global mean surface air temperature" that I blogged about here. That study found:

There is considerable evidence for solar influence on the Earth's pre-industrial climate and the Sun may well have been a factor in post-industrial climate change in the first half of the last century. Here we show that over the past 20 years, all the trends in the Sun that could have had an influence on the Earth's climate have been in the opposite direction to that required to explain the observed rise in global mean temperatures.

The authors specifically looked at trends in cosmic ray intensity as part of their analysis. As Britain's Royal Society said in an accompanying statement at the time:

At present there is a small minority which is seeking to deliberately confuse the public on the causes of climate change. They are often misrepresenting the science, when the reality is that the evidence is getting stronger every day.

Can we finally bury this myth once and for all?

This post was created for ClimateProgress.org, a project of the Center for American Progress Action Fund.

It's Turtles

It's turtles all the way down as far as climate change deniers are concerned. You can refute the existence of one of their pathetic excuses for scientific criticism turtles but they have an infinite number of replacements.

Put the Carbon Back
Hrmm

Now if only we could launch that DSCOVR satellite...

http://www.desmogblog.com/more-dirt-on-the-dscovr-climate ...
http://www.desmogblog.com/government-insider-document-sho ...
http://www.celsias.com/blog/podcasts/celsias_show_003.mp3 ...


-David Ahlport

serially supportive turtles *sans fin*

Nice reference, Pangolin.  If I had a better memory, I would add to the Wikipedia article that in one version, the scientist being questioned is the psychologist William James; and that in a version of whatever the original Hindu myth is, the elephant is standing NOT on the back of a tortoise, but definitely on a turtle, who is swimming in a sea of milk.

(But then, where does the milk come from?  The Cosmic Creatrix Cow of Scandinavian mythology?)

One may quibble with whether the story quite fits the intellectual problem of GW-deniers; but nevertheless, it is always pleasant to be reminded of it.

Chickens deserve our true friendship! So do fish! So do other sentient beings! Let us learn to be kind.

That Old Trick


They wheel these anti-Svensmark articles out about once every 3 years.

He's refuted them time and time again.

but "reference to faith"....

is misunderstood to be an attack on Christianity, Islam, Hinduism or whatever religion prevails locally. Where really you mean that the foundation of their argument doesn't have, and will never require validation by empirical evidence.

Ultimately the AGW deniers have two major blocks of support; the cynical profiteers and the "true believers." There is a chance that a cynical profiteer could come around to seeing that destroying his ability to air freight fresh grapes from Chile will detract from the point of making a profit. Reference to reality ultimately works with them and some change in behavior occurs. The change always expresses itself as support for a cap-and-trade system but we'll leave that for another thread.

The "true believers" aren't going to give an inch because telling them that the toys they have today will be put away tomorrow or worse that we are going to close the toy chest and quit making cookies forever is just not acceptable. They were told, usually by the cynical profiteers, that if they just pushed the go-kart long enough they will get their turn to drive. Only the most seriously world-view destroying of events will turn them from their faith. The techno-fix folks are true believers.

AGW is going to be with the human race until it learns to live within the limits of it's environment. It is independent of oil, natural gas or coal burning. If zero-point energy were available or the "Mr. Fusion" our descendants would still have this argument in 150 years or so when heat pollution would be doing the work that GHGs are doing now. Nothing will make the happy motoring utopia sustainable for 9 billion people.

It's just easier to say they've got "turtles all the way down" and move on. Wink, wink, nudge, nudge.

Note: see science fiction humorist Terry Pratchet for some (totally unfounded in reality) details on world carrying turtles.

Put the Carbon Back

Svensmark Speaks


Looks like Global Taxers are desparate now that the temperatures have stopped rising.  They have to "make up" exaggerated reserach to keep their funding going...

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/7327393.stm

Dr Svensmark himself was unimpressed by the findings.

"Terry Sloan has simply failed to understand how cosmic rays work on clouds," he told BBC News.

"He predicts much bigger effects than we would do, as between the equator and the poles, and after solar eruptions; then, because he doesn't see those big effects, he says our story is wrong, when in fact we have plenty of evidence to support it."



BBC Article Gets It Wrong


http://www.webcommentary.com/asp/ShowArticle.asp?id=webst ...

A recent BBC News article claims "'No Sun link' to climate change" in its headline. Yet a careful read of the article strongly suggests that there is a solar link to climate change, but that some researchers looking at the theory simply don't have a good understanding of the nature and strength of that link as it relates to cloud formation.

There are many possible explanations why the research performed by Lancaster University scientists might have failed to live up to expectations. Among those possibilities are: (1) researchers do not adequately understand the theory (as suggested by its chief proponent, Dr. Henrik Svensmark of the Danish National Space Center, DNSC), (2) the relationship is not manifest as anticipated by those researchers (i.e., the effect may not be manifested in the time and space they expected), (3) they did not look at a sufficiently robust set of conditions (locations, season, etc.).




This article is Moronic


http://environmentalresearchweb.org/cws/article/opinion/3 ...

Here's his evidence.  He moves up the line of latitude and says, well there are less cosmic rays at higher longitudes, and so there should be more cloud cover.

That completely ignores any other aspect of the earth's geometry on cloud formation!

We're talking about overall cloud formation based on cosmic radiation.

Meanwhile...the Truth


http://environmentalresearchweb.org/cws/article/opinion/3 ...

The blue curve shows the low cloud amount (seasonally corrected) against time measured from 1983 when satellite measurements of clouds became available.


Relax jabailo

A) Four posts in fifteen minutes on the same subject is just spamming. Form a whole thought and then post.

B) Your going to blog yourself to death trying to keep up with all of the rest of us. The shotgun approach is not going to work and  simply jumping in with repeated denials is tedious. Try a reference to reality now and then. It's spring, check out the outdoors once in a while. We worry about you.


Put the Carbon Back

Hes making my point!

  That the moles will keep popping up. Cosmic Rays disputed, not a word about that, now a claim from a very short time series that water vapor isn't increasing as predicted -ero no AGW! So they distract the rest of us with their wack-a-mole tactics.  So maybe its nor turtles all the way down -unless turtles can magically transform into moles.

  And once La Nina ends, and we surpass the 1998 temp record, their will be yet another mole. It seems to me we should be using mole traps, and not mallets, as the wack-a-mole game is nonending.

Yeay!

Pangolin, you're on a roll today! You're an excellent writer when you're not being grumpy about vegans!

The true meaning of life is to plant trees, under whose shade you do not expect to sit.
Yes.

And I very much enjoyed the link to Terry Pratchet and "Discworld," about which it seems incredible I had not heard.

Chickens deserve our true friendship! So do fish! So do other sentient beings! Let us learn to be kind.
Cosmoclimatology -- Pro and Anti


Interesting blog that references some preprints.

The one cited by Romm above, and two others in support of cosmoclimatology through the millenia.

I certainly will read all in detail (the rest of you might try that as well...instead of ranting about "turtles" and salamanders and whatnot).

http://motls.blogspot.com/2008/03/three-preprints-on-cosm ...

Three preprints on cosmoclimatology
During the last week, there have been three cosmoclimatological preprints by two teams on the arXiv.

Rusov et al. (Ukraine) argue that all observed climate change at the timescale of millenia and millions of years can be explained by two factors, namely the the solar output and the galactic cosmic ray flux that determines the cloudiness.



Cosmoclimatology Continued

I've brought to the attention of AGW alarmists, on various threads, that there is a dedicated international team of over 50 scientists working at CERN on Svensmarks findings.

The reaction from the alarmists is akin to a stunned Mullet;

Quoting CERN on their 5 (five) year programme:  

"The collaboration comprises an interdisciplinary team from 18 institutes and 9 countries in Europe, the United States and Russia. It brings together atmospheric physicists, solar physicists, and cosmic ray and particle physicists to address a key question in the understanding of clouds and climate change. "The experiment has attracted the leading aerosol, cloud and solar-terrestrial physicists from Europe; Austria, Denmark, Finland, Germany, Switzerland and the United Kingdom are especially strong in this area"

It's odd that the alarmists do not react favourably at the possibility of good news.

Good news

What's wrong with it?

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