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Latest hot commodity: coal

As coal prices rise, U.S. coal exports boom

Posted by Tom Philpott at 8:35 AM on 21 Mar 2008

Environmentalists have helped scuttle more than 50 coal-fired power plants in the U.S. in the past year.

That's fantastic. But the movement to stop coal won't help the climate unless it can globalize; for the climate, coal burned in China traps just as much warmth as coal burned in Texas.

Nor will stopping more U.S. coal-fired power plants help save communities in the mining zones of Appalachia from environmental and economic devastation. That's because U.S. coal companies are merrily exporting excess coal abroad.

Check out this New York Times graphic: U.S. coal exports are up from under 40 million tons in 2002 to nearly 60 million tons last year.

And that means a windfall for the mega coal producers. As with other commodities, coal prices have risen sharply. The above-linked Times chart shows that one grade of coal -- Central Appalachian -- doubled over the past year.

Why? A recent piece in the Washington Post attributes the hike to "an untimely confluence of bad weather, flawed energy policies, low stockpiles, and voracious growth in Asia's appetite."

That sounds about right. But it should be noted that a large portion of coal use in Asia, the globe's industrial belt, goes to making stuff for U.S. and European consumers. So that sentence could have have added "insatiable Western demand for cheap crap."

Interestingly, the Post cites the coal-export boom for helping to moderate the gaping U.S. trade deficit, "which declined last year for the first time since 2001."

That leads to an interesting observation:

That means that, in a small way, higher revenues for U.S. coal exports indirectly helped the U.S. economy cover the cost of iPods from China, flat-screen TVs from Japan, and machinery from Germany. The still-gaping trade deficit of the world's largest industrial power at the dawn of the 21st century was slightly eased by a fuel from the era and pages of Charles Dickens.

Nice, but the author left out an additional irony: that exported coal also literally helped generate the electricity that went into manufacturing those iPods, etc.

An article in The Times adds an additional wrinkle. U.S. consumers have so far been spared impact from the jump in coal prices, because power-plant operators here buy coal in long-term contracts, locking in prices for several years.

But when those contracts are up and the new prices are in, we can expect sudden spikes in electricity prices. One coal analyst tells the Times:

Watch out, consumer. You're probably going to see accelerating electricity prices in 2009, 2010 and 2011.

So electricity will soon join food and gasoline on an inflationary tear. Fasten your seat belts -- it's going to be a bumpy ride.

Coal to China

It is going to be a big part of the Eastern Coal Market, the appalachian mountains. Western coal being 10 times lower in sulfer is first choice for power generation.

The Eastern Market has a hard time staying competitive unless they do MTR. They can sell a dirty coal to China who does not regard Co2 emissions as an impediment to industrial growth or have any real concern about the environment.

The china export may improve our balance of trade but it will reduce our balance of mountains and valleys with clear water streams. Nature's balance will suffer and Appalachia will never be the same. This damage is not reversable, you can't reclaim valley fills.  

The eons of time and nature was good to us down here. It was not until we become civilized that destroying our habitat become fathomable or fashionable.

Won't the massive price increase...

...eventually lower the demand for American coal?  'Specially since it's more expensive to mine it here than in most other places?

Easy Coal

Most of China's easy coal has been mined, drift and slope mines. The large shaft mines they run are dangerous and production is lower than strip mining for coal. You may remember hearing about accidents with huge death tolls in china from time to time in the coal industry.

MTR gets the cost of coal down to where it can be competitive in the oversea's market. At a terrible cost to the environment but that is why they will hang on to it as long as they can.

The demand for coal in china is insatiable with a coal fired power plant coming on line about everyday. Compared to oil or natural gas imported coal from the U.S. will still be about half as cheap.

The eons of time and nature was good to us down here. It was not until we become civilized that destroying our habitat become fathomable or fashionable.

Fallacy of Domestic Energy

This points out one of the fallacies of the "energy security" of domestic sources such as coal... and domestic oil.  Unless the government intervenes in the market, which mainstream politicians of either party are unlikely to do, Americans are exposed to world shortages via higher prices.

This is not to say that domestic sources aren't better from a trade deficit standpoint, but the notion often implied by politicians that domestic oil or coal will be cheaper for consumers is simply false... those two items are transportable and fungible and even if produced domestically will be sold to the highest bidder.

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