The shape of the race

The next U.S. president will favor a carbon cap. What effect this has on the race is anyone's guess.

Posted by Adam Stein (Guest Contributor) at 2:01 PM on 08 Feb 2008

Now that John McCain is the presumptive Republican nominee, the shape of the debate over climate change takes on different contours. Hillary and Obama are offering substantively similar climate plans, so there's no need to wait for the Democratic contest to be decided before we start gaming out a few scenarios.

1) Will climate change take on more or less prominence as an issue in the general election?

Argument for less: with everyone preaching from the same book, the media sees no hay to make. This suits the candidates fine. McCain knows the topic alienates conservatives. Hillbama knows their policy position makes them look liberal and McCain look independent/centrist. Under different circumstances, the Dem could have tried to portray the Republican as reactionary, but no longer. Everyone changes the subject to war and the economy.

Argument for more: candidates might want to ignore the issue, but they won't be allowed to. Seeing the writing (now bold-print, 198-point font) on the wall for 2009, interest groups go nuts. Environmental Defense and the Competitive Enterprise Institute take out dueling ads in swing states. Slow-witted reporters find a story angle: whose climate change plan wrecks the economy more? "Energy independence" and "green collar jobs" become dominant buzzwords of the election cycle.

Safe prediction: an escalating contest to prove who loves biofuels the most culminates in one candidate chugging a gallon of ethanol on live TV.

2) With all candidates agreeing on the need for a carbon cap, will proposed legislation become weaker or stronger?

Weaker: with McCain providing cover on the issue, Hillbama and Democrats in general delightedly tack to the center. By erasing any difference between themselves and McCain, they hope to neutralize wedge issue politics and rob anti-environmental voters of a clear choice. McCain himself implicitly backs away from his previous commitments by ostentatiously bear-hugging a bunch of poison pills (nuclear energy, etc.) and daring his opponent to follow him.

Stronger: recognizing that most of the public isn't following the weedy details, candidates and lawmakers engage directly with the relevant interest groups. The policy momentum strongly favors greens, who are increasingly happy to let the question simmer until 2009. For its part, industry is newly ready to make concessions.

Safe prediction: the eventual legislation will contain provisions for creating jobs, battling terrorism, and whitening teeth.

Anyone care to place some bets?

For story: The shape of the race
5 Comments | Post a Comment

Nobody will feel obliged to impose a carbon cap

Capital flight would be accompanied by the stripping of America and the parting-out of its capital resources to foreign countries. That would go over well. Maybe there will be one for show, and they will impose a "carbon cap" that is easy to circumvent.

Want to cap carbon? Cap the oil wells!

http://www.dailykos.com/User/Cassiodorus

by LegumeSam at 2:09 PM on 08 Feb 2008

They will, however, have to recognize the issue

I press that we move immediately to reinstitute the Victory Gardens program, as a way of cutting down on carbon use in food transport and as a way of generating "carbon credits" to attract foreign investors who must comply with Kyoto. We can plant a lot of fruit trees.

http://www.dailykos.com/User/Cassiodorus

by LegumeSam at 3:39 PM on 08 Feb 2008

Green Parties

There's a great post on how green the candidates are at Matter Network that covers what they are saying, their records and where their lobby money comes from.

by scotts at 6:52 PM on 09 Feb 2008

Stop shaping the race!

And stop telling people that Mike Gravel isn't in it! Put him back on your front page!

by inkabinkaboo182 at 9:44 PM on 09 Feb 2008

Finally

The party machinery has ejected those pesky environmentalists from the election cycle. What a relief. Good job pols!

Now we can get down to the real race, who can pander to corporate lobbyists more effectively? The race to the bottom..line that is.

http://amazngdrx.blogharbor.com/blog John Schneider, Northern Wisconsin

by amazingdrx at 9:30 AM on 12 Feb 2008

ADVERTISING POLICY

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