Staff Contributors
Guest Contributors

Next market bubble: farmland!

Thanks to the ethanol boom, big investors are plowing cash into corn country

Posted by Tom Philpott at 8:22 AM on 07 Feb 2008

Read more about: agriculture | economy | biofuels | ethanol | energy | business

Big investors seem to have forgotten how to exist without some sort of speculative bubble. In the last decade, they've whipped cash from tech stocks to bonds to emerging markets to real estate to junk mortgages. With the latter bubble now deflating rapidly, they've turned to ... Midwestern farmland?

Yes, big cornfields. Here's a Chicago asset manager talking about who's buying up farmland, quoted in USA Today:

It's everybody from the person concerned about the stock market to large government and corporate pension funds, insurance companies, hedge funds. [!]

Investors do like a sure bet. With the 2007 Energy Act mandating that corn-based ethanol production double yet again over the next several years, investors are fairly sure that corn prices will keep rising -- pushing up land values accordingly.

Average Midwestern farmland values have doubled since 2000 -- and rose 20 to 23 percent in 2007 alone in Iowa, Nebraska, South Dakota, and Wyoming, USA Today reports.

Besides land speculators, who does this trend benefit -- and who loses?

Clearly, a lot of Midwestern farmers own swaths of land and have seen their net worths jump over the past several years. Like Manhattan co-op owners who bought in the 1970s, these people are sitting on large paper gains.

But by no means do all farmers own their land. In Iowa, for example, some 45 percent of farmers rent all or part of their land. For these folks, rising land values have meant higher rent payments.

Worse, say you're a young person wanting to start a new farm -- say, a produce farm designed to sell fancy veggies to all those newly rich farm owners. You're now literally competing with hedge funds for land.

But I doubt the trend can last. At some point, corn-based ethanol just has to collapse under the weight of its vast ecological liabilities. When it does, corn prices will dive, taking land prices along for the ride.

And things are already looking a bit frothy, as the stock analysts say. One analyst says he expects farmland prices to rise at a 6 to 12 percent annual rate over the next three years, compared to gains in farm income of 4 to 5 percent.

In other words, land prices are rising faster than the income the land generates -- sure sign of a bubble.

Isn't there a good side here though?

When farm land was worth more as a Wal Mart than a corn field, lots of small farmers were selling out and turning rural america into big box retailers.  Surely there is a benefit in the fact that it's now got value in agricultural production?

Wind power land

Wait until the wind power land rush starts.  It will make this land rush look tame.

The "free" market in action.  Yep, it's going to be great for farmers...  exfarmers that is.  The ones who sell out to corporate agribizz interests who hire illegal workers.

New mexico has a CAFO dairying industry destroying its groundwater right now.  Exactly in this mode.

A good side?  Well yeah for hedge funds, they profit all the way up the bubble then on the way down as well.  Then during the depressive economic phase they buy up cheap assets.

http://amazngdrx.blogharbor.com/blog John Schneider, Northern Wisconsin

Sean : Walmart V. Ethanol

Farmland sold for development is still worth much, much more than farmland sold for corn production.  Around the fringes of Midwestern cities there is still a lot of farmland being sold.  In Illinois I have heard of farmland owners near Chicago suburbs selling their farms for up to $80,000 dollars per acre.  So, say you just sold 100 acres for $80,000 per acre.  You now have $8 million dollars!  To keep from paying a big chunk of capital gains taxes what are you going to do?  Go downstate and buy 1600 acres for $5000 per acre, driving up the demand and price of land in the process!  So, McMansions, McDonalds and Walmart will still pay a hell of a lot more for land than farmers will for corn and a lot of farmland owners are more than willing to accommodate.  

One other thing that is driving up the price of rural land in Illinois and elsewhere is the craze over deer hunting parcels.  It is amazing what well heeled hunters are paying for the opportunity to own their own hunting land. Much of this is timber and pasture land, but some of it contains tillable land too.  The gentrification of the land continues.  There just ain't no good poor man's land left in the US.  

hedge funds

Am I the only person who sees the humor in hedge funds buying up agricultural land?

And yes, I realize farms in the midwest pretty much never have hedgerows around their fields.  I'm still amused.

Yeap

http://greyfalcon.net/farmers2
http://greyfalcon.net/farmers


-David Ahlport
For all of you out there thinking

biofuels are going to help the poor, think again. They are going to lose their land.

In the end, it all comes down to biodiversity. Poison Darts--Protecting the biodiversity of our world
You are not logged in. Thus, you cannot post a comment. If you have an account, log in. If you don't have an account, well, by all means go make one! Meet you back here in five.
sign in
Search Gristmill
Subscribe
  • subscribe via RSSStay updated with the Gristmill RSS feed.
  • Add to My Yahoo!
  • Subscribe with Bloglines
  • Subscribe in NewsGator Online
  • Subscribe in Netvibes
  • Subscribe in Google
Using Gristmill
  • What is Gristmill?
  • Posting rules
The comments of Gristmill users reflect the opinions of those individuals only, and do not necessarily reflect the viewpoints of Grist, its staff, its board members, their psychotherapists, or their aestheticians. Got it?

Gristmill is powered by Scoop.

ADVERTISING POLICY


About Grist | Support Grist | Job Board | Archives | Grist by Email | RSS | Podcast
Gristmill Blog | In the News | Ask Umbra | Muckraker | Victual Reality | 'Tis the Season | The Grist List | The Bottom Line



Grist: Environmental News and Commentary
a beacon in the smog (tm) ©2008. Grist Magazine, Inc. All rights reserved. Gloom and doom with a sense of humor®.
Webmaster | Sitemap | Privacy Policy | Terms of Service | Trademarks