It's a bird ... it's a plane ... it's ... Super Tuesday!

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Posted by David Roberts at 5:01 PM on 05 Feb 2008

Read more about: politics | elections | presidential race 08

OK, well ... here we go! Consider this the Super Tuesday catch-all thread -- share your news, opinions, brickbats, and whatnot in comments.

Obama kicks things off with a huge win in Georgia.

UPDATE: Obama has taken Delaware and Illinois. Clinton has taken Arkansas, Tennessee, Massachusetts, New York, and New Jersey.

McCain's won Delaware, Connecticut, Illinois, and New Jersey. Romney's won Massachusetts and Huckabee, somewhat to the pundits' surprise, is kicking a little ass in the South, taking Arkansas, Alabama, and West Virginia.

The story thus far, as far as I can tell: McCain's still the presumptive favorite, but not doing nearly as well as people thought. Huckabee is his secret weapon, siphoning conservative votes from Romney. Clinton is doing extremely well, taking the Mass. and NY prizes despite late Obama surges.

UPDATE: The latest, via TPM:

CLINTON: AR, MA, NJ, NY, OK, TN
OBAMA: AL, CT, DE, GA, KS, IL, MN, ND, UT
HUCKABEE: AR, AL, WV
MCCAIN: CT, DE, IL, NJ, NY, OK
ROMNEY: MA, UT

The Mass. loss was a real blow to Obama. I think he's going to fall short of the hype and lose a little momentum. Calif. is huge, huge, huge, and I hear Latinos are going heavily to Clinton, so things don't look good for him there either. Big night for Clinton.

Also, holy crap, Huckabee just won Georgia. He is blowing away expectations. Can you say VP?

UPDATE: Clinton takes Arizona -- another blow to Obama. Looks like the delegate count is going to be fairly close. It all comes down to California.

UPDATE: They're calling California for Clinton. NPR says Clinton is about 20 delegates ahead of Obama -- that's close.

Also: Sen. Barbara Boxer (D-Calif.) is a superdelegate; she pledged to vote for whoever won Calif., so she's voting for Clinton.

UPDATE: The Mittster picked up a run of late states -- ND, MT, UT -- but McCain picked up Calif., so it still seems like he's the prohibitive candidate.

UPDATE: Kos says they called Missouri wrong -- Obama is in fact the winner.

UPDATE: Just noticed that Clinton called out beating the "climate crisis" in her (strong) speech tonight.

UPDATE: Alaska goes to Obama. As did, it turns out Missouri. I can't find a definitive delegate count, but there are rumors around that Obama might even have a lead.

UPDATE: Sounds like Romney might be dropping out in the next few days.

UPDATE: The popular vote on the Dem side was incredibly close -- something like 49% to 48%. The race is a dead heat. Harold Meyerson has an insightful look at where the race goes from here.

For story: It's a bird ... it's a plane ... it's ... Super Tuesday!
14 Comments | Post a Comment

"Taking" is wrong

Remember, on the Dem side, the order of finish isn't very important because they aren't using winner-take-all, so those strong Obama finishes are huge, because they take delegates directly from Clinton and put them in Obama's column. So if she "takes" NY or NJ but by far less than she hoped, it's a victory for Obama.

The 5% Project

by JMG at 6:54 PM on 05 Feb 2008

Yeah, Obama's going to get...

...more delegates than expected -- maybe half. Just a few weeks ago, Clinton was way ahead. The momentum has shifted significantly in Obama's direction. He actually seems to have exceed what he needed to get -- all the primaries between now and March 5 favor him.

by GreenMom at 9:24 PM on 05 Feb 2008

I was up

far too late (or early, as the case may be) watching the returns.

After the speeches last night, I was even more happy with my vote. I thought Hilary's was quite gracious; focused on the issues, congratulated Obaba, sent prayers out to the folks in tornado country. If she attacks anyone, it is the present administration, and Republicans. Obama, on the other hand, was quite snarky, I thought, and while he bills himself as the "uniter" (CNN reminds me that Bush ran as the "uniter" in 2000 - D'oh!) he's simultaneously making snarky comments about supporting the war and old-school politics.

Anyway - about what we expected, I think: quite close and a long battle ahead.

I am in Quebec City today for a business meeting - will be interesting to see how much (if any) attention they pay to this.

by kmp at 5:29 AM on 06 Feb 2008

Romney adieu!

Romney is the slimiest blight on the noble tree (?) of US politics. And Super Tuesday will have at least one unquestionably good consequence, if he is driven at last from the race.

The Democratic picture is far too complicated to figure out. The Dan Balz paraphrase of Winston Churchill has been bouncing around a bit: for the Republicans, this is the beginning of the end, but for the Democrats, it is just the end of the beginning.

Obama's momentum does indeed seem to have been staggered. But the squeaky victory in Missouri is meaningful.

Also, I am very surprised that he took New Mexico. Did Hillary assume too much down there?

Chickens deserve our true friendship! So do fish! So do other sentient beings! Let us learn to be kind.

by caniscandida at 5:39 AM on 06 Feb 2008

Huckabee in Georgia

I'm always amazed at my native state. David's sainted grandmother didn't actually vote yesterday, but she told me she liked Mike Huckabee because he was such a nice, Christian man. This is odd because until John Edwards left the race, she loved John. I guess we can't discount "affinity" voting too much because she loves her sweet, southern, Christian white guys.

I don't dislike Huckabee, but I can't imagine him as president.

by Baby Boomer at 6:52 AM on 06 Feb 2008

Amen, Canis

Romney, adieu, I'm with you.

I would almost have re-registered republican so I could vote against him, but he's way ahead in Mass polls (were my fellow citizens awake for the last 5 years?) so I decided just to cast my Green Party ballot.

Here's hoping Mitt the Twit does not recover from this.

Erik

The Orion Grassroots Network: supporting grassroots groups working for conservation, justice, & more

by Erik Hoffner at 8:29 AM on 06 Feb 2008
[ Parent ]

Hidden issue

The big issue that no one talks much about. Corporate corruption.

Where is the cash coming from that will fuel the final win? What do they expect in return for their cash?

Barack panders to corporate lobbyists now, what can we expect of him later, after he is elected?

He isn't hiding his support for nuclear power, fuel farming, and clean coal. Do his supporters expect him to switch his support to more eco friendly energy policy later? Or don't they care?

Change is fine, but only if it is in the right direction. Bush brought change too.

http://amazngdrx.blogharbor.com/blog John Schneider, Northern Wisconsin

by amazingdrx at 8:47 AM on 06 Feb 2008

Lobbyist money

In Obama's speech last night, I thought he said that he "hadn't taken a single penny from lobbyists, unlike "some" who had received even more than their Republican counterparts."

I thought that was pretty far-fetched, but maybe I misunderstood him?

by kmp at 9:17 AM on 06 Feb 2008

I've heard that too

He is claiming only smaller amounts from individual backers. That money can be bundled. Before it is donated. As in caucuses, union leaders or company bosses can direct one's support by offering incentives at work.

I think that's how it works, funneling funds so they get around campaign finance laws.

But the real problem is the positions, they all are right out of the respective lobbyists playbooks. Nuclear power, ethanol, clean coal, helathcare related corporations.. all seem to have the main input on the policies proposed.

I'm not saying Barack is dishonest, I'm saying he does not yet have the experience to differentiate himself on important issues from corporate lobbying positions. That leaves we the people with a weak negotiator at the table.

We need someone who has experienced pressure politics and is ready to stand up to it to set this situation on the right track. Economic, energy, and regulation wise. Starting out the power playing by giving up is not goinmg to cut it with the big (corporate) boys.

Bartering with multinational corporations bigger than most countries in terms of market cap, needs a strong hand.

http://amazngdrx.blogharbor.com/blog John Schneider, Northern Wisconsin

by amazingdrx at 9:59 AM on 06 Feb 2008

Anyone wants to know where the money comes

from, here:

http://opensecrets.org/pres08/contrib.asp?id=N00009638&am ...

That's Obama's info. There's another link for Hillary (below). But it's certainly not all disinterested individuals. Up to date as of the last quarter (Dec 2007).

http://opensecrets.org/pres08/contrib.asp?id=N00000019&am ...

by AuntBeth at 5:37 PM on 06 Feb 2008

UBS AG insider hedge fund trading

Just an example of one large contributor on that list Beth. From Wikipedia:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/UBS_AG

"In an article published in BusinessWeek on February 26, 2007, it was announced that the firm was under investigation by federal prosecutors in the United States after it was discovered that traders working for at least two unidentified hedge funds were paying a UBS employee for information on impending ratings changes on stocks.[1] It was later announced on March 1st, that Mitchel S.Guttenberg, an executive director in the firm's equity research department, was being charged along with 13 other individuals from various firms with insider-trading fraud of more than $15 million. [18]"

This kind of insider trading is exactly what is wrong with rampant corporatism overtaking responsibly regulated markets. This sort of manipulation caused the mortgage crisis.

Market manipulation by hedge funds that made too much capital available for mortgages. It was put into unsound, high profit loans. The companies backed by the hedge funds marked up huge earnings and growth, the hedge funds drove the market and caused a housing bubble.

The bubble burst when weak loans inevitably went bad with an economic downturn. The hedge fund profits were already booked, they aren't coming back to reimburse the banking system that now has to absorb the losses.

Rather than take the hit, financial institutions are being bailed out by emergency fed rate lowering. But this isn't free.

The cash to pay comes out of the value of the currency. Inflation rising, people paying more for everything they need. The dollars in your paycheck or pension or social security check worth less in terms of goods and services.

Prices at the pump and utility company and grocery all going up to pay for the insider trading thievery. Hitting the poorest the worst.

Change this situation Barack. Do not endorse more trading, carbon trading, to cure energy/GHG crisis. Will carbon trading eventually be payed for with inflation?

Hitting the poorest, as fuel farming has. Driving up food commodity prices and starving millions. But you support corporate fuel farming. And corn trading, and ethanol trading, and weather futures trading.. and so forth. All manipulated, all to benefit the richest.

http://amazngdrx.blogharbor.com/blog John Schneider, Northern Wisconsin

by amazingdrx at 9:35 PM on 06 Feb 2008

At the End

Both parties have serious problems.

For the Republicans, McCain is winning, but not really uniting their base. It is not at all clear that a combination of moderate Republicans and Independents can lead to victory in November. So, he is basically doomed, unless the Democrats self-destruct.

For the Democrats, the problem is that no one is really running away with the race. Deadlock means that someone has to concede. If either Clinton or Obama starts to really pull away, that's okay. If they stay as close as this until the end, they are in trouble.

It is hard to imagine which one would step aside, and how party unity could be achieved. Unity comes easily if someone wins clearly, if they don't, there are problems.

Which of course, is McCain's best bet.

It may be a stranger year than we can imagine!

patrick in Beijing

by bookerly at 11:06 PM on 06 Feb 2008

Double trouble Hillary/Barack

Yep Pat, a commentator on Olbermann's show, Craig Crawford, keeps saying that the more they fight it out, the more they are forced together.

As a ticket. They will have to run together to win, for the good of the nation and the party. Which is good. Plus we get all the media coverage. The gOP race is essentially decided.

One forced to become VP, Hillary or Barack, to do their patriotic duty. Hillary would be a fine vP too.

http://amazngdrx.blogharbor.com/blog John Schneider, Northern Wisconsin

by amazingdrx at 11:19 PM on 06 Feb 2008

Actually

My current guess after the latest round is that Obama wins it. And he will not consider Hillary as his VP (he needs a white man to overcome some of the lingering racism). Look at the governors of VA, Ohio and perhaps (if it appears to be in play), PA.

Of course after March 4th, things may change, but the big Mo is heading Obama's way.

patrick in Beijing

by bookerly at 3:09 AM on 13 Feb 2008

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