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Staying hooked on oil is expensive, too

Gas pricing, Big Oil, and carbon pricing

Posted by Eric de Place (Guest Contributor) at 12:39 PM on 22 Feb 2008

Read more about: energy | oil | Big Oil | carbon trading | carbon tax

Apropos of British Columbia's big announcement, I have some ranting to get off my chest. One of the most frustrating things about U.S. climate policy is the reflexive fear that if we ever raise the price of gas -- or of driving generally -- people will riot in the streets or something. This makes it exceedingly difficult to rearrange the economy away from oil and its carbon contents.

But, of course, the price of gas keeps rising anyway. In fact, crude oil prices have more than tripled over the last half-dozen years, with futures closing above $100 recently.

To be sure, there's a silver lining to higher prices: they really do dampen demand, despite what you hear all the time. But it's a silver lining to a dark and ugly cloud: high energy prices mean that consumers are taking it on the chin -- and especially low-income consumers. And worse, all the revenue from the high prices goes to the energy companies. If prices had risen because of taxes or carbon fees, then the public could be reaping the windfall that big oil is raking in now.

For a decade, lawmakers have balked at the prospect of $20-per-ton carbon taxes (a figure that is sometimes kicked around as a price that would get us on the right track). Eighty dollars per ton sets off screaming and wailing. But those figures translate into an additional 20 to 78 cents, respectively, per gallon at the pump. In the time that we've all been afraid of those comparatively modest figures, the price at the pump has jumped $2 or more.

We could have been intentional about getting ourselves off oil, and about protecting consumers from price spikes. But instead, we've opted for the expensive and volatile route: we'll do nothing and hope for the best.

Now let's just hope we can figure out a cap-and-trade program that doesn't send any price signal to drivers.

the ugly cloud

I know this will sound very pie-in-the-sky, but there are basically two ways to pay for moving to a sustainable society: you either make the bottom 80-90% pay for it through carbon taxes/higher prices (yes, I know about rebates, but you have to admit that they're cumbersome); or you nail the sectors of society that have the big bucks, in the U.S. that being the military (1 trillion dollars/year), the very wealthy (get their tax rates to pre-Reagan levels) or large corporations (make them pay the 28% of the Federal budget they used to pay, not the 8% they do now).  Then use all of that money to build the systems that the poor can use -- like public transit so the high gas prices don't effect them, or zero-emissions buildings so the poor (include the middle classes in poor) don't have to pay constantly rising electricity/natural gas prices.

Rebates

Rebates are not that cumbersome. Give everyone "credit cards" similar to the rechargeable credit cards people without credit can buy in the Grocery store. Recharge them monthly. Parents get their kids money until the kids turn 21.  By using cards rather than checks, even people without bank accounts and homeless can get them, and if you are a homeless person someone else for whom getting such a card is a hassle, at least you have to go through that hassle only once.

It'll still be like social security tax...

...at a certain income level, the percentage will stabilize...not that that's a deal-killer...of course, you could have extra "luxury" items carbon taxes too, I suppose.

What carbon cost would work?

If $2/gal rise in gas hasn't had a significant impact on consumption, how would even $80/t translated into $0.78/gal have made a significant difference?  It seems this would imply over $200/t would have been required if it had been done before oil production constraints started kicking in.

Gar, I know someone that works for one of the big banks selling those card type programs to government... he'll love your idea, it's very profitable for them.

Cards

Not my idea Peter Barnes. And since this card goes to everyone we don't have to let it be such a profit center for the banks. Also, the way banks make money from them is on float, plus penalties when they go unused. But with cards like this, they would either be spent quickly or transferred into peoples regular accounts quickly. Not so much float, and penalties for non-use not allowed by law.

As to the price not being a huge incentive. I agree elasticity is about   50%. So price incentives by themselves don't work well, since you have to have a price increase about twice the size the cost of the saving - meaning regulations and public works provide the same savings less expensively.

The reasons you still have to have price increases is industry. In buildings, and transportation you have really clear metrics to measure the success of rule based regulation. Consumption per square foot, or per person in buildings. Consumption per passenger mile or ton mile in transportation.  But think of the variety of processes used in industry, the variety of products produced, and the variety of intermediate inputs. While there are a few processes common to all industries (boilers, motors, pumps and such) where regulation or subsidy might be effective, you need a carbon price to drive industrial efficiency. And once you have a carbon price in one sector, you need it across the board or enforcement becomes a nightmare.

Reasons other reasons you will want a carbon price:

  1. While regulations and public investment can encourage efficiency and renewables, conservation (things like driving less as opposed to buying more efficient cars)  only respond to higher prices.

  2. Having price signals as reinforcement will lower enforcement costs for regulation, and reduce the need for micromanagement.

  3. Elasticity is not a fixed number. It responds to circumstances. In the presence of a robust public works program and strong regulations, you may get better responses to price signals.


To beat the same old drum...

...(or hammer, Odo?), 1) if public transit and walkable communities are a better answer for transportation than any form of automobile (insert qualifiers here), then higher prices are not the answer, public investment is.  Now, higher prices may -- will -- cause people to want to live in walkable communities and have rail, I admit, but logically, if perhaps not politically, it would be better to anticipate and build them now.  And they will need to be built, eventually.

2) maybe regulation will be reduced, but that still could be a big burden on the lower 80% -- I'd still rather take the money from the rich and powerful.

The way I'm trying to cut this gordian knot is to step back and ask, "How do we give people alternatives to various carbon-intensive technologies so that we don't have to price them out of using them".  

Rich and Powerful

I'm not against taking money from the rich and powerful. But I want price signals too - with the money returned to the poor and middle classes, so that the price signals are not a burden on anyone than the rich. In other words I want our barstool to have three legs:

1)Large scale public investment funded by cuts in the military budget

2)Regulations so that we don't have to fund every frickin thing publicly and so that we have some standards for the success of our public investments.

3)Price signals to encourage industrial efficiency, because we can't measure it easily enough for public investment or rule based regulation, and (since we have to have them anyway) to reinforce progress elsewhere. The revenue from a carbon price should be rebated back to the public to avoid it being regressive.

That is in fact a policy at the expense of the rich and power. It is also a policy that, by using all three tools available for change, encourages the maximum rate of progress.

Sounds good to me!



Rationing?

One of the aspects that troubles me is that it is being suggested that we (1) tax the heck out of gasoline and diesel so people will use less of it, yet would consider (2) some kind of credit card for the po' people, even by pirate banks.  That's complete fruit-cake nuts, IMHO. Why not (3) just ration the stuff, just as ludicrous.

You haven't considered that any means of controlling energy and fossil fuels should be (4) regulated by regulating the companies, refiners, importers, and Big Oil - as opposed to taxing the people.  Several studies have noted that previous regulation of Big Oil dropped the amount of capital for new exploration and new rigs.  It was considered bad back then but might appeal to you these days as an effective way to reduce fossil fuel mining and extraction.  

Unfortunately that tactic also has issues, since (5) many Big Oil and Dirty Coal companies are investing in clean power of some kind, even if it involves hanging out at the government trough.  

So it's complicated machinery but I don't see how or why one should slap a tax on the consumers, especially in a recession when we're giving away free money.  /sam

Onward through the fog

30 cents per gallon

Subsidize renewable electric transportation.  According to how many kwh it takes to replace a gallon of gas.

6 kwh in a plugin car= one gallon of gas in a regular gas guzzler, in terms of miles.  So give the plugin hybrid driver 5 cents per kwh in subsidy.  That is equivalent to a subsidy of 30 cents for every gallon of gas saved by the plugin hybrid.

Take the 30 cents per gallon away from big oil company subsidies, that they no longer need due to soaring gas prices and profits.

They will pass that price on to consumers, calling it a tax.  After all the gas in the country suddenly rises by the same amount, right after the subsidy cuts are enacted, lower the boom.  With massive anti-trust enforcement on the multinational oil mob.

Use the 2 by 4 at the end of the process, instead of the start.  Oily billionaires like the Sauds and Bushes will get it right between the eyes.  Poor billionaires.

The best cushioning for the poor would be a rise in minimum wage, green jobs, and a tax rebate for all the local sales taxes they pay and hidden sales tax passed on by mega business.

http://amazngdrx.blogharbor.com/blog

Three years ago ...

... if one had proposed, say, a 50-cent-per-gallon tax on gasoline, the media would have been apoplectic with rage.  It would ruin the economy!  It would drive us into recession!  It would place an unfair burden on the working class.

But with the reality that we have started paying, over the last 3 years, an additional $1.00-per-gallon -- with most of the profits being sent to fine, upstanding countries like Saudi Arabia, Nigeria, Iran, UAE, and Russia -- the media seem pretty sanguine, and our economy (until now) seemed to muddle along just fine.

The irony continues to amuse me.  Namely: taxing ourselves in order to plow that money back into sensible, long-term improvements of our infrastructure is unacceptable, a non-starter.  But (effectively) taxing ourselves in order to plow our money into the economies of foreign despots -- that's OK.

Back to the drawing board...

I'm with Sam on this one. I'm all for government investment for transit and walkable communities, but those projects will take decades to finish. Peak oil will likely be upon us before we get any sort of carbon tax or cap-and-X.
"We may hit peak oil in the course of the next three, four or five years, in which case $100 oil will look somewhat quaint,'' Alfa Bank's Moscow-based Head of Research Ronald Smith said in an interview with Bloomberg television

And if Alaka politicians are any guide, the oil and gas industry trump global warming (and the survival of the polar bear) every time.

Better in my view to design a combined global warming/oil depletion initiative through the United Nations. Ration oil to cap the cost, (otherwise more and more of U.S. GDP will be exiting the country). Reduce the allowances 3-5% by country according to the global depletion rate each year. Give everyone an ATM card and enable them to trade carbon.

When oil is $200 and $300 a barrel, adding a carbon tax or enacting cap-n-trade will be politically difficult, to say the least. And with supplies being as tight as they are, we are all vulnerable to oil shortages. We need plans in place so everyone can get food and warmth, as well as getting to work.

Colin, on teqs...

...I agree that at some point we may need rationing, and that issue needs to be addressed, but from mostly skimming the booklet at the teqs website, there are a few things I can point to.  First, they point to three things that are needed, conservation, renewable, and to me the most interesting:
2. Structural change. The political economy of the future will require radical reorganisation in its use of space and distance; it will develop the "proximity principle", which requires goods and services to be produced close to where they are needed; it will move towards localisation. Examples: local food production; local generation and distribution of energy; localities enriched economically, socially and culturally to the point where they can provide most of their needs from local resources.
The transport-dependent systems of today will become obsolete, as our society evolves and reorganises itself for a more rational use of land.page 24

This is interesting to me, because it actually gets back to transit and walkable communities; butg it also means that there may be a more social aspect to this than a teqs or any other market-based scheme, in other words, people will have to work collectively to rework the structure that the teqs people are talking about(and by the way, David Fleming has always seemed to me to be very worth listening to).

Now, as to questions: apparently the energy units would be embodied in goods and services consumers use: so the price would rise for these, which to me is similar to a tax, and falls more heavily on the poor.  The second thing that occurs to me is that, if equitably distributed throughout the world, it would involve a huge redistribution of wealth to poor, carbon-nonintensive countries; which might not be a bad thing, but it has to be dealt with.  And finally, is this similar to athanasiou's ecoequity idea?  

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