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Obama takes Maine in a wicked pissah

Posted by David Roberts at 12:50 AM on 11 Feb 2008

Looks like Obama has won Maine in something of a blowout. This was a state that was widely expected to go to Clinton, and in which she had a commanding lead in the polls through late last year. At this point she's got to be wishing everyone could just go to sleep until the Texas primary. On the bright side, she's got a very, very narrow lead in New Mexico, with 99% reporting.

In other rumorish news, it suuure sounds like Colin Powell's getting ready to endorse Obama:

UPDATE: Also, I forgot to mention that Huckabee not only won Kansas but took Louisiana as well. The Washington GOP called its caucus for McCain with 17% of the votes outstanding and less than 2% separating McCain and Huckabee. (This is not the first Wash. GOP vote counting fiasco.) Huckabee is now lawyering up and mounting a full-scale protest. This could get good.

Also, sounds like Edwards is going to endorse soon.

How is Hillary going to win?

Here are some of the things that can push Hillary back to the top.

Florida.  They had a primary.  Clinton won. The Democratic Party said that it did not count.  So, here is their problem. They could say say:

(1) We are sorry, it really did count.  In this case, Obama has a real beef in that he followed the rules while Clinton made a last minute appeal for Florida votes, saying that she would work had to seat the Florida delegation.

(2) Recognizing the polarizing effect of that decision, they could say that Florida deserves a "do over."  Now, Clinton has a beef.  She won the primary and they are going to take it away.  What hppened to the "will of the people."

(3) The party could hold fast to their original position, but that will never happen because nothing could do more to hand Florida to the Republicans in the General Election than to disenfranchise the entire state.  Heck, it might even allow the Green Party  or Libertarians to grow.  I can imagine how Ralph Nader or Cynthia McKinney would play this.  I am sure that the Democratic Party does not want Florida to be decided, once again, in court.

Now, repeat all of the above in Michigan.

Add Florida to Clinton's side, which the pundits fail to do, and you have a very different picture.

So, you have a very different view and, just like the Super Delegates, is is all in the back room and never in the hands of the voters.  What will Obama's young supporters do if they see back room deals take it all away?

Wes Rolley CoChair - EcoAction Committee Green Party US

Hillary; Edwards

It will look very bad for Hillary to say or do anything to suggest that she "won" in Florida and Michigan, and that those "victories" ought to count.  Whether or not her side thinks that would be justified, many more others would just roll their eyes and say, "There she goes again, playing unfair, and doing anything it takes to win."

Given the circumstance of the tight delegate count, it would be both practical and civil for the DNC and the two candidates to request Florida and Michigan to have another Democratic primary.  The state officials may have to eat a little crow, seeing that their states will still be important and there was no need to push up their primary dates against the decree of the DNC.  But they should not mind, after all; no one should mind, in fact, if there is more campaigning in those states prior to the general election.

As for the possibility of John Edwards' endorsing one or the other, I see no purpose in that at this point, unless it is part of a deal by which Edwards is promised the VP slot or something else he might want.  We Edwards supporters who already voted were as confused as he himself is reported as being.  We either forced ourselves to make up our minds at the last minute; or we copped out, seeing Edwards' name still on the ballot (as was the case in many places), and choosing fecklessly to vote for him anyway.

Chickens deserve our true friendship! So do fish! So do other sentient beings! Let us learn to be kind.

End Game


   The Democrats have a real problem.  If the end of the process provides no clear winner, then there will have to be some sort of deal making.  It is not clear how a brokered convention (super-delegates) would play out with the supporters of either candidate.

   Clinton can offer Obama a guaranteed endorsement and support for 2012.  What can Obama offer Clinton to get her to give up the fight?  Not sure, but it would have to be good.

   Clinton will also make the argument (and has indeed begun to do so) that many of the states Obama won were won in caucuses.  That caucuses are not democratic, and are not indicative of a candidates ability to carry the state in a general election.  That in terms of primary states, she is actually doing quite well (up until now).

   She may also point out that winning caucus voters is not much different from winning super-delegates votes (Obama must be careful to "win" the super-delegates without alienating them.)

   The Democrats best hope (in some ways) is for one of the candidates to surge and knock the other out.  Clearly.  Cleanly (as much as possible, and there is plenty of mud on both sides at this point).

   Whatever happens, they need a situation in which the loser joins the winner on the platform, promises to endorse and campaign for, and does so joyfully.  Otherwise, McCain gains ground.

   If they are deadlocked, what does each of them offer to the other to lose?

patrick in Beijing

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