The renewable investors' bubbles are in industries of all push and subsidy, narrowly confined to electricity.  Economics are missing in the equations of values.  

Unseen in all the sexy subsidized pv cells and wind turbines are emerging industries, from the ground up, down and dirty working towards unsubsidized market pull -- energy that is more reliable and lower cost than historical energy sources.  That is a multi-trillion dollar global market.  Public investors have little to no knowledge nor access to these somewhat secretive private emerging industries.

Vinod is in the froth...

In the first three quarters of 2007, Khosla Ventures participated in 14 financing deals with a total, combined value of $68.4 million, according to an analysis by Thomson Financial and the National Venture Capital Association. Only one other U.S. firm, Draper Fisher Jurvetson, participated in as many deals, with a total value of $38.5 million.

As the amount of money pumped into green tech rises - reaching $2.6 billion from U.S. venture firms in the first three quarters of this year - so do fears of an investment bubble bursting. Khosla said that will happen, but not soon. He plans to keep investing in the field and said he's interested in bio-plastics and other biomaterials.

"There's no doubt in my mind we'll go through a bubble at some point," he said. "I don't believe we're there today. These markets are so much larger than the traditional Silicon Valley areas."

The key drivers of the alternative energy and infrastructure boom will be:

    * Economic recession recovery
    * Dollar weakness
    * Loss of petrodollar liquidity
    * Energy security
    * Peak cheap oil

Those are all, possibly, permanent problems!  The dollar may never get much stronger, in fact it will probably get much weaker, which will lead to "loss of petrodollar liquidity", in other words, the dollar will tank even worse because the oil countries will except other currencies, there's nothing on the horizon to help "energy security" (absent the predicted "alternative energy" rush), and oil will not "unpeak".  And we may come out of the coming recession much poorer.

If you look at the last two bubbles, the dot com and real estate bubbles, they look to me like the last hurrahs of the American economy.  Michael Klare has another good analysis, called "How oil burst the American bubble".

The dot com bubble was gathering force for two decades, since the general distribution of microprocessors.  After that went belly up, investors were looking for something, and real estate was the last possibility, as there is something real (thus, real estate).  

In order to create these alternative energy networks, vast amounts of capital are needed, and I don't see why the international investment community (or electronic herd, in Friedman's lingo), will pile in one more time -- there are plenty of countries now that are in better position to push alternative energy.

As for infrastructure, the U.S. is in a classic position of wasting most of its resources on the military (1 trillion dollars a year now), and letting the civilian economy rot.  When the Chinese emperors did this, the resulting floods led to the removal of the "mandate of heaven", and the dynasty fell (Bush?).  And in any case, things like high-speed trains are clearly set to expand in Europe and China more than the US.

Unless -- unless the citizenry of the US stands up and comes to a consensus, World War II style, and decides we are in an emergency situation, and rebuilds the manufacturing base of the country.  

We can't depend on the electronic herd for this one.

bookhttp://www.powells.com/s3?kw=+A+Short+History+of+Financia ...

The 5% Project

to make it available to a broader audience

and that the descriptions be paired with specific recommendations

better yet would be to identify organizations promoting the recommended solutions

As for linking it to an alternative, which I have posted about in the past, let's try this: we could take most of the trillion dollars a year spent on the military, construct high-speed rail networks among our big cities and light-rail networks within them, put solar panels on every building in the country and geothermal exchange units underneath them, create local organic farm belts around every city, and have enough left over for national health insurance and a doubling of spending on education (and did I manage municipal wind farms?)...so does that sound like a plan?

We cannot get it all at once, what should we do first?  What organizations can we pull together?

Personally, I favor small investment stuff to start to demonstrate some success.  Without any expertise, for some reason I have been fascinated by the geo-thermal heat exchange do-hickies at the homes, and the home-sized solar.  Maybe tax credits for that stuff; maybe some grid rule.

Let's start somewhere and get it done.

I passionately believe in the rail stuff, but the price tag will scare people, I think, and I do not understand why the lobby is not stronger.  Maybe people here know.

For instance, apsmith has put together a plan for a high-speed rail network.  amazingdrx and others here are big advocates for geothermal exchange.  Getting the money out of the military has potential to bring people together, I think, as does reaching across to the African-American and other communities to use green collar/manufacturing to build support, and some of the people around Van Jones seem to be doing just that.

But you bring up a good point, I'd like to know if other people have any ideas.

Amzn might have the best ideas, but he has to join an organization and go in as a representative of the group, or no one will listen.  Think the Turkish Astronomer in The Little Prince by St Expery (sp?)

Anyway, there are two choices on organization:  build one, or hijack one (or several)

Unless some money guy comes along, our best option is hijack

And there is a role for mere bloggers in that process:  shine a light

We need to systematically canvass what is being done, by whom, and then rabble rouse with the enviro groups, or, better, their funders

My suggestion would be to start modestly, pick a topic that already has some traction (tax breaks for various green activities), and try to get a win

Need to list who the potential orgs to help might be, and what they say they are doing, and keep actual track of what they do do.

The goal should be to build support for green business.  (Sen. Sanders gets this)  Maybe things like programs to insulate low income housing -- or, better, all housing so it is not viewed as a lefty hand-out -- and get some prevailing wage stuff into the bill, and try to round up unions

bloggers can be the spur.  Gadflies of the Republic

It is more difficult than providing helpful summaries of mass media articles, but more likely to lead to results

The heating/cooling bills and gasoline costs are a major reason for mortgages foreclosed Jon.

The internet bubble.  Why did it burst?

The promise of the internet to boost productivity and efficiency was there.  Telecommuting, bundling cable tv, phone, broadband wireless internet carrying it all together.  But the big cable tv, phone, cell phone providers had a captive, payed for audience in the bushwackers.

That's why the bubble biurst when Scalia stopped the recount in Fla.  The new economy knew that the old economy would squash out the whole thing.

All that bundling and efficiency and productivity is finally starting up, just as the bushwackers are about to join the lobbying side of government.

Will there be a similar boom in renewables and conservation and smart grid and plugin hybrids under Hillary or Barack?  Along with a renewed internet information technology boom as broadband wireless bundles it all together (over the power grid for smart grid technology)and telecommunting becomes a tidal wave?  

US customer service telecommuted to India and the Philipines is already coming back.  It isn't working well, so americans are doing customer srvice jobs from home.

Think of all that coal and oil no longer necessary to the economy, replaced by renewable smart grid and conservation technology, that's a huge boost in efficiency and lowering of basic costs, energy costs that underlie all other inflation.  

This could be a new boom, fueled by both internet technology and renewable energy revolution.  But only if the leadership realizes it is possible.

Old economy monopoly energy policy won't do.  Nuclear, "clean" coal, and (fuel farm enabled)gas guzzling is embraced whole heartedly by 2/3rds of the presidential frontrunners.  Only hillary seems skeptical.  And she is the only one mentioning plugin hybrids.

http://amazngdrx.blogharbor.com/blog

you have to build constituencies, and you have to focus the organizations on specific legislation

and specific Congressmen

I'd love to see more options for sustainable energy investing for average joe's like me. I've been saying for years how an EFT index fund based on the DJSI (Dow Jones Sustainability Index) -- with its inherently TRANSPARENT (calling it objective may still be a stretch, but it beats a secret analyst assessment) system for ranking the companies on the index-- would be far superior in sending clear market signals (via stock prices) to companies about sustainability values based shifts and investments they could make.

DrX's assessment sounds a bit overly optimistic in this instance, I am not sure we will have a tidal wave of telecommuters but we do need to remove all disincentives currently in place.  Many in service sector, and especially public service, still lack the option to telecommute.

Personally this bubble still does seem rather nascently proto-zitlike on the backside of an oily economy.  And did ya hear Obama's perspicaceous comment that "The U.S. is the Saudi Arabia of Coal?"  

Moving toward sustainability with hopefulness, one revolution at a time.

'd say the groups which would constitute a loose "left," some for ideological reasons, some because they get it on the climate urgency and are more militant activism-wise, are: Rainforest Action Network, Global Exchange, Chesapeake Climate Action Network, US Climate Emergency Council, a good chunk of Energy Action Coalition (leadership, at least), Oil Change International, Shalom Center, Climate Crisis Coalition, Step It Up, Indigenous Enviro Network, Greenpeace, Friends of the Earth, Rising Tide North America, Southern Energy Network.

So that is an example of a list of groups that might be open to a more comprehensive solution.  I wouldn't say this is exactly hijacking, more like opening up a conversation.  Oops, time for din-din.

is to survey the field

and then to keep track of action/no action in a penetrating way.  Shine a spotlight

but it cannot be every issue all at once.  At least, not by one blogger or one small group of bloggers

That is why I think it makes sense to have a strategy.  Certain sensible goals that can be achieved, and see what can get done.  In other words, track the organizations on that limited set of priority first-step items.

If you are successful in prodding the Green groups into focus and follow-through, and we win a couple, then the whole effort gets credibility, and you are ready to move to the next goal.

I think it could work, but it would take unusual dedication, and some talent.

But here is a gloss that I think is important, that you might reject:

I think it is important to find ways for business to make money off more responsible behavior.  In my view, any economy is a pattern of activity, and there are always costs to changing the pattern.  (don't laugh; I'm trying here)  Anyway, I think the best hope for longterm change is to build a set of businesses/labor unions making money off green energy.  The money will keep the necessary attention sustained, and will build a base of support for other green initiatives.  Also, to the extent that the business works, it will build public confidence that green can work generally.

There is a lot of suspicion that Green will collapse the economy.  Right or wrong, it is a powerful political force.

Showing Green can work will likely be more convincing that telling everyone that Green can work.

Maybe move to a district that could benefit from renwable smart grid technology and has a large wind resource?  And work with the local utility, which happens to be building a test scale renewable smart grid, Excel.  We have aother  power company here that is paying 23 cents per kwh to homeoners for their solar power already.

Sounds good.  It's synchronicity, just where I'm going for my next project.  Hook it up, pump plenty of kwh into the grid and a plugin hybrid.  How can they ignore that?  We'll see.  Hehey.

http://amazngdrx.blogharbor.com/blog

For instance, look at Lester R. Brown's most recent update of his Plan B, now on version 3.  He has a global plan that would cost about $200 billion, that would go far to solving many global problems.  Obviously,  that is a long way off, but it is necessary to understand what it would take to "save the planet".

As far as moving businesses to be green, that's definitely part of the task.  My "utopian" mind, though, links that effort to the idea of workplace democracy.  If those green businesses were employee-owned-and-operated, not only would they never be outsourced, but they would be more efficient, and they would be more environmentally-minded since the people working in the businesses would be concerned about their own local environment.

But I think there is a certain amount of buzz going on around green-collar and green businesses, Obama and Hillary are definitely picking up on it, and they wouldn't be repeating these ideas if there wasn't some resonance in their audiences.  And believe me, they have no clue as to how to fix the long-term economic decline of the country, and not much more about how to reverse global warming.  So a green business "frame" seems to be the way to go, and I think certain segments of the populace and power structures might be open to it.

if you are sticking to the ivory tower doing the grand vision thing

who is going to be the blogger Field Marshall for the here and now?

any nominees?

JR, you must know some talented eager beaver searching for a calling.  Have him or her go to the enviro funders and give her a grant to be the Grist cop on the beat

She could identify 6 or 10 high priority efforts (that grid thing, high speed rail, geothermal heat exchange -- whatever  -- you guys help her pick) and follow what the enviro groups are doing/not doing/talk about but never do/do but never follow through/do but never coordinate with business groups/do right episodically and in the dark.

By shining a spotlight, the Grist Field Marshall could influence them

The Grist Field Marshall can keep track of specific bills, responsible people at Green groups, co-sponsors gathered, co-sponsored targeted, proposed amendments, scheduling in committees.

In other words, things the Green groups should do themselves but do not, for a variety of reasons.

JR, your new role:  talent spotter.

You can be Philip of Macedon to the next Alexandra the Great

Very good ideas (I sort of tried that once for public transit, not very encouraging results), I'll keep my eyes open, but again, we need resources! And I wonder if a grant could be found for that sort of thing...but as long as I'm baring my soul, I have to say that I haven't been good about trying to look into grants...any ideas?

Barack's work on behalf of Exelon, nuclear plant operator, large contributor to his campaign, and leaker in Illinois.  He said the bill passed, but it never did.

Meanwhile Illinois groundwater is contaminated.  And the contamination can continue unabated with no consequences.

http://amazngdrx.blogharbor.com/blog

The Silicon Valley crowd might be less odl money aristocracy in outlook than the usual suspects

need someone not afraid to rock the boat

but, I repeat, I am only guessing

Also, Green groups spend a lot of time trying to figure out how to say no to business

So trying to support a new Green infrastructure is not exactly a blazed trail, well-worn path, etc.

Still, I do not think the groups are completely hidebound, inbred and all that stuff

I think at least a few people see that we are in deep, deep trouble, and we have to build Green energy fast

So there is hope

in the abstract, at least

You say, "this guy is talking about how investment in alternative energy and infrastructure is going to lead eventually to an economic recession, which is ridiculous"

Where exactly does he say this?  He says specifically that "bubbles" (a term he doesn't like) can end rapidly or slowly, so they don't necessarily have to be catastrophic.  Nowhere in the Q&A do I see any assertion that they inevitably end in an economic recession.

Dave