Has the O shaken his CTL fantasies yet?  [Generally I agree that he's way better on climate policy than any Republican could ever be if they want to get elected]

That said, it is crucial to remember that we elect presidents through an electoral college that gives an enormous amount of power to individual states.  For example, in the 2000 election West Virginia went Republican for the first time in ages because of the coal industry's effective attacks against Gore.  That one state would have swung the election the other way.  A similar argument could be made of the NRA's successful effort to deny Gore his home state of Tennessee.

A strong "ground game" by vested interests can make a real difference at the state level.  Thus, I think it worthwhile to spend some time between now and the election discussing how green issues like global warming are playing in different parts of the country.

Also evidence why I think Edwards is the best Green candidate out there.

_

As for McCain, I don't really think he's in the race.

I think that unless Huckabee takes it, Romney is probably going to be your front runner.

-David Ahlport

As to DR's analogy, the climate crisis is to Democrats as national security is to Republicans, academically that sounds fine.  But in terms of political force, they are hardly equivalent.  

National security will always (?; it sure seems so) be a more powerful issue, for reasons having to do with male psychology, IMHO.  In a recent conversation between Joseph Romm and Jon Rynn, the historical example of the US government's directing US industry during WWII was raised as a kind of precedent for what the government can do in a time of crisis.  Sure; but notice the circumstances: all (pretty much) of US manhood was engaged, especially after Pearl Harbor, by the self-righteous zeal to enter into a kind of competition, which traditionally tests "masculine" virtues, with foreign male competitors.  A similar set of emotions has been at play since 9/11; the US electorate are feeling them less intensely perhaps than they did in 2002 and 2004, but they are still there, and may still be evoked by GOP candidates.

The climate crisis really cannot compare at all.  And even if everybody comes around to taking it very seriously, it will still not likely evoke the same sort of all-controlling zeal.

Chickens deserve our true friendship! So do fish! So do other sentient beings! Let us learn to be kind.

Instead the Republican spin machine will do their best to make every debate into one over whether or not climate change even exists and to what extent we are responsible for it or can do anything about it. There are already many conservative sponsored think tanks which specialize in distributing generally skewed information on climate change in the name of "science".

The republican solution to climate change, as presented to the voting public, will be one that involves changing nothing and in fact shows how climate change can be solved by spending more, manufacturing more and consuming more. After all no one likes change and no one wants to give anything up. Everyone likes to be able to spend more money and have less to worry about. These familiar themes are the ones that the republicans will play just as they always do.

Remember the last election when fear was the card that was played to manipulate the voters? Remember Saddam's weapons of mass destruction that never existed that were used to disguise a war of conquest to gain control of the world's 2nd largest oil supply?

They might play that card again by attacking Iran before the election in order to have a war underway by the time the election comes around because voters don't usually unseat whoever is in control during a war.

Another prediction I could make would be to say that I think the next economic "bubble" to come along will be the green energy sector. The economy has been propped up for some time now by creating these bubbles one after another. First was the credit card bubble, then the dot com bubble, then the real estate bubble. All of these have kept a crumbling economy looking somehow rosy.

Combine that with selective hyperinflation of specific commodities (like oil, up 300% in 3 years) to keep general inflation down and our books look worse than Enron's.

I see a bunch of green energy startups coming on line which will just be created to make the rich richer and will never produce anything of value. I did an analysis of one such company for a Danish investment group. The company had taken in several hundred million dollars in investment money and claimed to have an on-board electrolyzer which would cut fuel consumption on diesel trucks by 10%. They said they had spent 100 million on R&D.

I did an analysis of the system and found that their electrolyzer only drew 16 amps through one electrolysis cell which would not produce enough hydrogen and oxygen to do anything on a vehicle that uses 10 gallons of fuel an hour. Their water reservoir consisted of an inverted 2 liter pop bottle.

An analysis of the unit by an independent lab verified my suspicions, the device was worthless. This company has several competitors in several countries at the moment all making essentially the same device and selling them for up to 15k per unit. One of these companies is listed as one of the top 25 tech stocks on a respected list.

I worry that there are probably many more of these types of companies out there.


Mike Johnston

    At the moment, the economy looks like it is headed in a mildly negative direction.  Most of the current polls show that concerns about the economy are number one, followed by concerns about the war in Iraq.  The environment and global warming are much further down the list.

    It is a pleasant fantasy to think that this will change, but unlikely.

    If gas prices go up, people won't look toward cheaper vehicles and better CAFE standards, they will look towards more agressive exploration and foreign policy.

    (I saw one poll which suggested Americans were concerned about global warming, but were not willing to pay more for gas to do something about it.)

    The Republicans are most likely to use gay marriage and immigrant bashing to play on their core groups fears of change.  Xenophobia seems to be a big seller.  Can it solidify the so-called red states, and flip a couple of purple ones?  I suspect we will find out.

    It is not clear right now what the conflicting economic proposals put forth by each party will be, they are below the radar screen in the early going, but they may be the deciding factors in the fall election.

    Still and all, the economy generally favors the Democrats (any) and the war does as well (any).  It should be their year if they don't screw up.  Look at the total turnout in Iowa.

patrick in Beijing

It is curious that since January 1, it is now legal for same-sex couples in New Hampshire to be civil-unionized, and the passing of the legislation seems to have moved along without noteworthy loud opposition; and yet, from what we are told, the two Republican candidates who make a big thing about being socially conservative, Mitt Romney and Mike Huckabee, have not been challenged to pronounce their judgment of the people of New Hampshire for so tranquilly legalizing same-sex civil unions.

By the same token, the Democrats do not have the courage of the editor of the Boston Globe to say the simple truth that, yes, it is a good thing that now, certain rights of same-sex couples in NH are guaranteed; and yes, it is a good thing that the whole country can look to a few Northeastern states to see that same-sex marriages (in MA, acknowledged in RI) and civil unions (in VT, CT and NJ, and now NH) have had no ill effects; BUT, so long as civil unions may not be called marriages, and must be classified as a separate sort of contract, the rights of gay people are still not granted them.

As for xenophobia, turned outward, with respect to the climate crisis and international agreements on mitigation, Republicans have always bellowed loudest that the US will never cede any of its authority to organizations representing foreign interests -- hence the recent unpleasantness in Bali.  So then Democrats have to deal with the challenge of being sincerely internationalist, while always making clear that US interests and sovereignty come first.

Yuck.

But when it comes to GW mitigation, I do not think John McCain would so conform to the Republican pattern.

Chickens deserve our true friendship! So do fish! So do other sentient beings! Let us learn to be kind.

         Fair comment about McCain.  Though he is currently anti-abortion and gay rights, these are not seen as his issues.  And in terms of global warming and immigration, he is at least as good as the Democrats.  On the war, he is terrible.  But, wait, so are the major Democrats.

         Which makes me want to sleep for four years...  

         BTW, though I was originally going to vote for Dennis, his flirtation with Ron Paul cost him my vote.  I mean, come on now.  

         Currently, in the VA primary, I will vote for Edwards (best of a bad bunch, he at least mentions poverty).  In the general election?  I dunno.  I was going to vote Democratic, but they are ALL so bad on immigration and the environment... (Being better than Mitt Romney or Fred Thompson is not something that inspires me to action).  

         How terrible!!!  That the top Democratic candidates are not so different from McCain on most issues.  I suppose they will appoint more liberal judges, err, maybe not.  Sigh.  

         I know my crummy one vote doesn't count for much, but if anyone can convince me that voting for center-right Republicans (McCain) or Democrats (top three) will make a difference, I will try to honestly listen.

          But please, no "hope, unity, experience" slogans.  I am not impressed.  Would prefer to see how specific issues might play out.  And I have looked at the candidates web sites, they all depress me.

patrick in Beijing

Patrick!  Virginia!  That is a swing state!  Even more exciting, it is purple, trending blue!  Your vote could make the difference!

It is certainly worth a whole lot more than mine, up here in boring ol' New York.  : )

Chickens deserve our true friendship! So do fish! So do other sentient beings! Let us learn to be kind.