Like a red-headed step planet

How will climate play in the general election?

Posted by David Roberts at 3:33 PM on 23 Jan 2008

This CQ article is disturbing for two reasons.

One, it confirms my worst fears about a McCain candidacy:

Today, McCain's position would be relatively close to that of the Democratic nominee in a general election.

Only on the most superficial level, but then, I guess that's the level we play on during campaigns.

... if Republicans nominate a cap-and-trade proponent for president -- McCain or possibly Huckabee -- the GOP side could play up the issue in an attempt to take votes away from the Democrat.

"My guess is that Senator McCain will continue talking about it even though there won't be much contention between him and the Democratic candidate, largely because it will show the kind of independent leader he wants to be -- and that will probably lead the Democratic leader to continue talking about it as well," said Manik Roy, director of congressional affairs for the Pew Center on Global Climate Change.

This seems exactly wrong to me. If McCain's talking about it, and the Dem's talking about it, and they're both talking about it in the same way, then the media won't talk about it, and if the media doesn't talk about it, nobody will hear about it. That's what we learned in the 2000 race. On issues where the difference between the candidates is (perceived to be) small, the issue fades to background noise. Only a fight attracts media attention. That means, if the Dem wants climate change to be an out-front issue (which frankly I doubt), they'll attack McCain on it, not go around nodding in agreement.

Second reason:

"I don't think there's a person in this country that votes on this subject," said Grover Norquist, president of Americans for Tax Reform.

Norquist said support for a carbon emissions cap will evaporate once the public understands the cost.

Now, ThinkProgress takes issue with this, citing polls that show widespread support for acting to address climate change, even capping carbon.

It pains me to say so, but I think Norquist is closer to the truth. I'm sure people will tell pollsters they care about climate change and want to do something about it. If a pollster asked me, "would you support an initiative to bring ponies to all third-world children?" I'm sure I'd say yes.

The important fact here is that the average voter doesn't know a thing about climate policy. Nothing. They worry about climate change in the abstract, but they have no sense of the real costs and benefits involved. They are a blank slate. What they do have is a whole passel of economic anxiety and a deep aversion to seeing their bills go up. It won't take much for the right to destroy support for carbon legislation. And I don't see progressives or any of the Dem candidates close to ready to fight back effectively.

Depressing, but that's how I see it, for the moment anyway.

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Exactly what I fear

from all the economic news. Not only on the environmental front, but on every other topic from peace to health care, and on down the list, this economic situation is making everyone hunker down and not take any risks. And timidity in our current situation, is suicidal.

Face it. We might have a political system that is utterly incapable - at least on the national level - of saving itself. Knows what it needs to do, knows what the consequences of not acting will be, but cannot budge. Like a beached whale at low tide. I am not trying to be a doomster on this. I am just taking a look at what the political system of the USA is capable of. Not much - it is dysfunctional by design. Thank the founding fathers for screwing us over on that one.

Finally, issues do not just fall out of the sky into our laps. They have to be created, promoted and managed. I really do not think that the environmental movement is all that savy when it comes to politics. I think we are really a bunch of rubes and rookies in this area.

Worst of all we are most often abused and forgotten by our own, and this is endemic to the system. I EXPECT to be betrayed by a Democratic president. They are our friends until election day, and then it is another day. The assorted consituencies of the Democratic Party especially, but the GOP as well on occassion, remind me of the wife of an abusive husband. He drinks up the rent money, cheats on her, won't keep a job, and beats the holy hell out of her on occassion. But she still swears that she loves him, and is sure that she can change him. After all, she has nowhere else to go with the kids.

Randy Cunningham

Randy Cunningham

by randino at 5:41 PM on 23 Jan 2008

Guys, guys, guys...

Our saving grace on climate policy will not be the feds. (I say this as a card-carrying federal employee). Yeah, Joe Blow won't vote for president based on climate change.

BUT...our asses may be saved by the unlikely combo of Arnold, Charlie Crist, Kathleen Sebelius, Elliot Spitzer, Google, Goldman Sachs etc. etc. etc.

29 states have renewable portfolio standards. Texas is building wind farms. They're building solar in the Nevada desert. Green tech stocks are among the only current winners on Wall Street, and SUVs aren't selling nearly as well as they used to be.

Things are looking up this year. There's some cause for optimism, Congress be damned.

The glass is half full.

by GreenMom at 7:53 PM on 23 Jan 2008

Science Debate 2008

I would think, then, that you would support the concept of a science debate. It would, at least for a few hours, push these idea to the forefront and offer the chance to draw distinctions.

There is one reading of the political tea leave that says Hillary has it won. Obama can not win the nomination without California and he can not win California without the Latino / Hispanic vote. I knew the Dolores Huerta was supporting Hillary. Yesterday, in Salinas, CA, the United Farm Workers endorsed Hillary and that will just about lock up the Hispanic vote here.

So, with Hillary vs. McCain or Romney, what do we get? Tennessee Ernie Ford had it right.

And for all of you solar lovers, the stock of First Solar was down 45% from its high to day and that of Sun Power was done 50%. Buying opportunity of a sign of things to come from either party.

Wes Rolley CoChair - EcoAction Committee Green Party US

by wesrolley at 8:36 PM on 23 Jan 2008

Green Mom is right

Right now, almost 20% of the US Stationary emissions sources are participating in a voluntary cap through the Chicago Climate Exchange. This and other voluntary efforts are opening the door to good political policy, I beleive.

Our company is signing up congressmen and other politicians that want to be carbon neutral in the next election. This will really rope them into making some changes. Check out www.standardcarbon.com/resources

by StandardCarbon at 11:28 PM on 23 Jan 2008

ADVERTISING POLICY

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