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Soliciting the House of Saud

Bush and big U.S. banks beg for help from the oil barons

Posted by Tom Philpott at 1:17 PM on 16 Jan 2008

Bush has been doing some fast talking in the court of Saudi Arabia's King Abdullah, imploring His Majesty to boost oil production to so that gas prices for U.S. consumers can come down in time for the fall election.

As part of his charm offensive, Bush has promised to bolster the dictatorship's arsenal with "900 sophisticated satellite-guided missiles." He also rattled his tattered saber against Iran, Saudi Arabia's archenemy.

While Bush and the King talk bombs, oil, and war amid the bling of the royal family's "lush horse farm," bankers over on Wall Street are squirming to get their paws on a few (billion) of the petrodollars that are swelling Saudi coffers.

Citigroup -- the world's largest bank -- Merrill Lynch, and now JP Morgan Chase have all admitted to staggering, multibillion-dollar losses from the ongoing subprime mortgage meltdown. To keep themselves in business, these giant institutions are essentially selling chunks of themselves to foreign governments and other mega-investors in exchange for massive "capital infusions."

The trend may be in its early stages. No serious observer thinks that the big U.S. banks have come even close to fully reckoning with losses from the subprime debacle. And then there's the looming specter of credit-card debt: these same institutions are crossing their fingers that strapped U.S. consumers can keep up with their massive credit-card bills as we edge into recession. If not, expect yet more epochal losses for for the big banks.

And more begging, as well. Among the gilded doors Wall Street's finest will be knocking on are those of the Saudi royal palace. (Prince Alwaleed bin Talal is already a major and influential Citigroup shareholder.) Other Mideast oil barons should also brace themselves for pitches from Wall Street. Citigroup has already gotten a tidy $7.5 billion from the Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, run by an oil-producing arm of the United Arab Emirates.

Not only do we depend on the benevolence of Mideast oil producers to run our cars, but also, increasingly, our banks.

Junkies pawning ...

their assets for some more smack. That's what this reminds me of.

Last year he admitted America is addicted. Well we are too in Canada :( Appears to be some relapse. Begging the drug dealers to make the prices cheaper, and offering some goodies.

Someone call his sponsor. Get him back in the 12 step program.

Gaawd damn the pusher

Duuuhboy is merely a low level rep for the main suppliers.

Watch him put on the robes and hold hands with the man.  Not that there's anything wrong with that?!?  I still think duuuhby was the result of a saud in the bush family woodpile.  Put a burka on Babs and she would look like any other saudi gal.  Neehawww!

Multinational corporate power now owns the Canadian tar sands, your government can no longer regulate the resources that belong(ed) to the public.

Thanks to the neoconman manipulated administration the US has been sold to the corporations based in the oiliest and slave laborist nations, it's the "free' market in action.  It's corporate libertarianism for the lot of US!

http://amazngdrx.blogharbor.com/blog John Schneider, Northern Wisconsin

I think this is overstated

There are broader trends here relating the speed with which global capital flows nowadays that are much bigger than Saudi Arabia and Citibank, and from which we all benefit.  From Chinese investment in dollars (which is propped up the US std of living for the last decade) to the general benefits of capital inflows/outflows that have helped to keep interest rates low (to the benefit of all us homeowners), we realize many benefits from the fact that foreign capital can invest in US businesses - be they banks, manufacturers or grocery stores.  Or consider: suppose you've got a great, world-changing business idea and need capital.  If you don't have access to foreign money, your access to capital becomes a function of the domestic economic cycle more than the quality of your idea.  In today's market, you don't have to worry about that, since you just get money from somewhere else - and we all then benefit from your great idea.

Remember that what goes up must come down, and capital movement is one of the few places that really does behave according to classic economic theory.  (More supply = lower price, etc.)  Money will flood in from the Saudis today, but that will  help keep our interest rates low, stimulating US economy and driving benefits for all and - as this example shows - driving cash back into US coffers that will put us on top in the next cycle.  

Think of it the other way: if the US was piling on cash and investors chose to invest in Saudi Arabian infrastructure, would that be bad?  One could certainly make the argument that such a situation would be creating high quality jobs in Saudi Arabia even as we are losing those jobs in this country, much in the same way as the China bashers did when US businesses were investing in Chinese manufacturing facilities.  This is essentially the opposite of that, with us getting Saudi dollars (exported from a petro state with a real dearth of quality jobs, I might add) to bolster banks that will help keep the costs of homes down, invest in US businesses (and, of course, invest overseas as well).  So as the inverse of the "bad" exported dollars example, is this then good?  Ultimately, it is neither.  It just is.  But what is good is that money can move.

Crazy fact I learned last week: Illinois coal mines are exporting their product to China.  Why?  Because the collapsing US $ makes it more competitive for the Chinese to buy dollar-denominated US coal than yuan-denominated chinese coal.  How's that for globalization?

Globalization

Excellent blog there Sean. You probably have anticipated that there is a real nasty side to globalization as well as all the benefits you mention. Beyond the cost of tortillas in Mexico and the horrendous coal-powered industry in China and India, (1) globalization increases pollution and (2) the decline in the dollar could lead to a real world war. I'm not this Arab terror thing Bushie calls a war today, which is just a cover-up for the real issue. It's all about energy and food.

But as you say, the global economy is just what it is, and there is little that a president or king can do about it. Taken in that scope, it was laughable that Bushie-Boy even tried to ask the House of Saud to increase oil production so as to lower the price of liquid fuel energy. As has been told by the House of Saud to our Bushie-Boy several times, America has failed to reform its internal woes with respect to consumption, efficiency, distribution, conservation, and vast energy supplies of its own.

I can't put my finger on it, but somehow I detect a fundamental mis-reading about what is happening today with globalization, energy, and food. Part is the answer is painfully obvious and some seems elusive, perhaps an issue that you are just starting to raise, Sean.  Thanks for your post.
-sammie

Onward through the fog

Go west young man

China is where that globalization talk will get you the world Sean.  For the US working class globalization is nothing but shoddy, poisonous products "for less!" and minimum wage jobs featuring drug tests.  

Getting on disability or winning the lottery or death is the only way out.  A big Walmart smiley face to ya!!  Hehey.

http://amazngdrx.blogharbor.com/blog John Schneider, Northern Wisconsin

Mexican tortillas

Thanks, Sam.

One final point, only because you raised it.  Is it me, or is the whole mexican-tortillas-are-a-sign-of-globalization-and-farm-policy-run-amok a little goofy.  I'm not defending corn ethanol, but  it does bear keeping in mind that the run up in corn prices has put a lot more money "on the farm" than there used to be.  And last I checked, even at $4/bushel, being a corn farmer isn't a free pass to millionairedom.  So what's worse: poor farmers and cheap food or (less poor) farmers and (less cheap) food?  I'm not sure it's so clean, but the conversation ought to at least acknowledge that there is a seller for every buyer and therefore wealth transfer isn't a zero-sum game.

Amazingdrx:

I think you greatly oversimplify.  There is bad that comes from globalization just as there is bad that comes from religion, but there is also good and painting with too broad a brush on either side of that divide isn't fair.  Yes, there is a process of running away from regulation in one country or another (be it from higher taxes or lead paint standards).  And that can be bad, but isn't always.  After all, if you can run away from regulations that would otherwise line your local dictators pockets, you are not only letting smart people succeed, but also putting pressure on your local regulations to reform.  And yes, there are real environmental consequences associated with shipping things half way around the world instead of producing them locally, but this has to be balanced against the competitive pressure that puts on efficiency.  After all, no globalization means no Prius in America.  It also means no 1979 Honda CVCC and the other small Japanese cars that transformed the US auto industry.  Yeah, they got shipped over in boats initially, but I think those benefits outweigh the costs.

Or here's another interesting consequence.  Our company is doing a project at an US orange juice producer.  One of the interesting dynamics of their plant is that the run up in corn prices has suddenly made orange peels really valuable as cattle feed.  And because of the weak US dollar, they're shipping it to feed Italian cattle.  This solves a waste disposal problem at the plant, displaces higher priced corn in Italy and enhances agricultural economics on both sides of the Atlantic.  As against that, they are shipping peel across the ocean.  Good or bad?  On balance, I think quite good, because it means the economy works, which is vastly better than the alternative.  Wastes are being converted into something useful, ag price increases are being tempered as new products come to market and there's a little more money in local agriculture, somewhere helping a farmer meet a mortgage payment rather than sell his land to a condo developer.  Certainly downsides as well, but the alternative is a completely insulated economy that never lets it's citizens benefit from things developed elsewhere (see: 1000 years of Chinese history, or any company with a "not invented here" culture.)

Good for you

Globalization benefits currency traders, as in the example of selling US orange peels to italian farmers.  But do the currency traders provide any benefit to anyone except themselves?  

Free marketeers will claim that "free" markets in currency "hedge" risk for all of us.  The reverse is actually true, this kind of manipulation puts us all at greater risk.

Without it, bushco could not keep borrowing money to keep this war going.

In reality, Italian cows, just like Wisconsin cows, do much better, provide better food, and generate more profit with rotational grazing.  Oh well, that interferes with "free" global markets in stolen standards of living.

Better to have an isolated economy than one that is pulled out from under working families as this one has been.  Another tripling of national debt under this bushwacking.

Export the corporatarians.  Go west I say!  Plague US no more.

http://amazngdrx.blogharbor.com/blog John Schneider, Northern Wisconsin

Currency trade

Dr X:  I think you need to separate the individual motivations from the larger consequence.  I don't delude myself that a currency trader is in it for anything but the money.  (What else, after all, would motivate you to get up every day and trade money?)  But thousands of currency traders do beget a level of social benefit, if only in the ability to quickly move capital around, adjust exchange rates & interest rates.  The guy selling peels to Italy is, after all, doing so in part because the dollar is weak against the euro.  Thanks to all those currency traders in aggregate, even if they're all just in it for their self-interest.  

Thanks?

Exactly my point Sean.  "Thanks to those currency traders" the orange peels go to Italy.  No thanks.  That's what I'm saying.  That isn't doing the living plasnet a favor.

Rotational grazing would be better everywhere.  Forget the so-called advantages of globalization, I'm just not seeing any.  I'm becoming a classic isolationist I guess.  

Time to emigrate to Canadian wilderness?  Hehey.  Sorry for being cranky on this topic, I know your cogeneration business is doing great things.

http://amazngdrx.blogharbor.com/blog John Schneider, Northern Wisconsin

Sean, about tortillas --

An obvious problem -- to me -- is that the alleged advantage of Walmart is that, even though jobs went to China, people have cheaper stuff here.  Now, if you reverse that, and say it's ok for the corn growers to make more money but now the consumer pay more, then you should also say that we should replace the imports with higher paying US labor, even if the price goes up.

As far as moving stuff all over the globe, eventually, I don't know if 70,000 cargo ships plying the oceans all the time is going to survive the decline of fossil fuel prices -- much less cap-and-trade or efforts to mitigate global warming, since, as I posted here, it accounts for about 5% of emissions.

Dr. X

Two brief responses:

  1. This isn't about cogen - it's about access to capital and the ability of all good ideas to prosper if they have same.  I have a specific idea that certainly benefits from access to global capital, but my arguments in favor of global currency flows are much more general.

  2. Unless I'm misunderstanding your post, I think you are conflating two, separable issues.  We ought to push as hard has we can for an economic system free of subsidies that includes all externalities, precisely for the reasons you mention.  But the reason we ought do so is that this will then encourage the efficient allocation of (global) capital.  The fact that doesn't have to pay the costs of overgrazing / greenhouse gas emissions / any of a zillion other externalities is really important, and really critical for us to change.  But it is not, at core an issue related to globalization, except insofar as globalization exposes those inefficiencies.  (Witness the angst over whether or not the US can "afford" to join Kyoto if China and India don't join, lest the differential costs cause industries to flee to those countries.  While I personally find that argument specious, it is an argument for full externality pricing, not for blocking trade with China and India.)


"Free" market

Check it Sean, it sure is working well...  this is the comeuppance for deregulation enabled by this raygun revolution obsession with maximum freedom for corporations.

Corporate libertarian blathering helped this disaster occur.  Blather on.  A few years from now corporatarian boosters might understand why they are living in a cardboard box in a bushberg (hooverville).

http://amazngdrx.blogharbor.com/blog John Schneider, Northern Wisconsin

Jon

Re Walmart: Great point, but I'm not sure that there is a tradeoff there, except in the academic sense.  (e.g., I don't know what lever you could pull to swap expensive corn for domestic manufacturing, or vice versa).  My point was simply that (a) we have a dangerous, albeit stable relationship with China that swaps manufacturing jobs for cheap goods.  I don't personally like it, but if we were to take dramatic action to pull mfg back from China (e.g., through some sort of tariff) we would could find ourselves with a heavily devalued dollar should China decide either to dump their currency reserves, or just find they don't need them anymore to the same degree as mfg shifts.  (b) Separately, the corn farmer vs. corn consumer argument has winners and losers - but is often framed disingenously only from the loser side of the debate.  In this vein, I'm simply making the heuristic point that if one criticizes gov't policy for not keeping enough money on the farm, one cannot then logically argue that rising farm incomes are bad because of the resulting increase in commodity prices.  I take your point that the two have directionally opposed effects, but don't see that they're conflate-able.

Re: shipping.  Completely agree.  Much is made of the environmental consequences of shipping stuff all over the globe, but most fuel chain analyses I have looked at (and done, back in my consulting days) suggest that the environmental impacts of shipping are pretty tiny relative to upstream and downstream processing/consumption activities.  This isn't to say that shipping consequences should be ignored, but rather that if you really want to lower the carbon impacts of a given good, you are often more well served to boost efficiencies and/or change feedstocks for some other element of the chain.  An obvious example is ethanol, where we would probably lower carbon by importing sugar cane derived ethanol from Brazil than by making corn-derived ethanol in the US.  The latter has lower shipping related costs, but the former has much less carbon associated with the crop and the production process, and those vastly offset the relatively small carbon increases associated with shipping.  (I don't mean to gloss over the deforestation issue here - simply making a point about shipping, and that moving goods around the globe needs to be considered on a more holistic basis than just "emissions from shipping are bad".)

I never said we had a free market

Check my posts here and here.  Indeed, I think that (a) the argument for pricing in externalities is compelling for pro-market reasons and (b) we far too often confuse pro-business with pro-market.  Much of what has been pilloried in the name of deregulation are good arguments against the wrong bogeyman.  The problem with CA electric dereg was that we didn't impose any anti-trust enforcement (a critical part of a truly competitive market).  Elsewhere, we have provided massive subsidies to supposedly "free" markets like oil & gas, coal, etc.  Those markets ain't free, and we pay the consequences for corporate welfare.  

At core, we are in violent agreement on the changes we want to see - my point is simply that the demon here isn't markets, but their absence.

The big problem with China...

...from a wide economic point-of-view is that large trade deficits are unsustainable economically.  Now, if we had a large trade deficit with China but a big surplus with another part of the world, then they would cancel out -- indirectly, China could take it's extra dollars and buy from whatever region had a trade deficit with us.

But we are in a ridiculous global structure -- and Bernanke has even discussed this, although in my last post I lambasted him -- but anyway, the structure is this, which I have never seen in any economic textbook or even advocated by anybody as some sort of rational economic system:

"Every region of the world has a trade surplus with one particular region (obviously, the U.S.).  the importing region only exchanges it's currency (dolalrs) for the surplus goods, so that there is a continually growing pile of dollars -- oops -- currency of the importer in the other regions of the world.  The people in the importing country have a higher standard of living because everybody else keeps giving them goods in exchange for their currency."

I've heard pro-globalization arguments, but they never sound like that.  This is a long way of saying, the Chinese are going to get stuck with those dollars anyway.  And by the way, "all" that needs to be done, is not new trade barriers, but just have the Chinese let their currency float, i.e., be market-driven -- not that that will happen anytime soon.

So basically, the U.S. will eventually have to rebuild the manufacturing base, because we can't keep importing half of our manufactured goods forever.

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