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The 'Inhofe 400' skeptic of the day

Gwyn Prins and Steve Rayner on climate change

Posted by Andrew Dessler (Guest Contributor) at 10:15 AM on 02 Jan 2008

Today's members of the "Inhofe 400," Gwyn Prins and Steve Rayner, do appear to have expertise on climate change policy. Prins is the professor and director of the Mackinder Centre for the Study of Long Wave Events at the London School of Economics, while Rayner is professor and director of the James Martin Institute for Science and Civilization at the University of Oxford.

As such, they are different from those that I have previously highlighted (here and here), who were true skeptics of human-induced climate change, but didn't have the credentials or credibility in the climate change arena to be considered "experts."

So Prins and Rayner have credibility in their area of expertise, but are they actually skeptics? The first sentence of the executive summary of their report, "The Wrong Trousers," (PDF) says:

We face a problem of anthropogenic climate change, but the Kyoto Protocol of 1997 has failed to tackle it.

I would say that Prins and Rayner do not doubt the reality of human-induced climate change.

Their point is not one of skepticism that humans are causing climate change, but that we need to look beyond a Kyoto-style approach in order to address this problem. I should note that this is not a "consensus-busting" position. There are many of us out there who agree that the Kyoto Protocol has not been effective and that new approaches need to be discussed.

In fact, in the last chapter of my book on climate change, my co-author and I detail a proposed approach that steps outside the Framework Convention under which the Kyoto Protocol was negotiated.

Thus, we can separate the "Inhofe 400" skeptics we have investigated so far into two classes: (1) those who are truly skeptical of a link between humans and climate, but are also truly unqualified, and (2) those who are qualified, but not actually skeptical. Prins and Rayner appear to fall into the latter category.

The existence of people in either of these categories in no way proves that there is any substantive scientific disagreement with the consensus put forth by the IPCC that humans are very likely responsible for most of the recent warming we've experienced and that future warming carries with it a risk of substantial impacts.

But why did they sign it?

Yes, they may not be skeptical, but that begs the question...

Why did they sign Inhofe's document?

Andrew Eisenberg
The gateway project is wrong---http://www.livableregion.ca

You're joking, right?

You think that this is a statement that the people on the list signed?  I assure you it's not.  It's just a list of people put together by the Senate committee.  I'd be willing to bet that some people on the list don't even know they're listed.

'signing'

It isn't a report in the sense that research was done and some synthesis of the ideas developed.  It is basically a list of quotes - "details the views of the scientists, the overwhelming majority of whom spoke out in 2007" Minority Page .

And the places stuff was quoted from is pretty motley.

Other categories

Having read the entire list pretty closely, there's a few other categories you'll find too:

a) qualified people who are OK with the idea of AGW but don't think the IPCC got it right.
b) qualified people who are skeptical of AGW en toto.
c) qualified people who have issues with the documentary "An Inconvenient Truth".

It's a sorry reflection on our society that Gore's efforts went pretty much nowhere until a movie came out as a supplement to his book by the same name.

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