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Australia faces the 'permanent dry,' as do we

Drought predicted to spread across Australia and the United States

Posted by Joseph Romm (Guest Contributor) at 4:09 PM on 06 Sep 2007

australia-drought.jpgThe story of Australia's worst dry spell in a thousand years continues to astound. Last year we learned, "One farmer takes his life every four days." This year over half of Australia's agricultural land is in a declared drought.

How bad is it? One Australian newspaper is reporting:

Drought will become a redundant term as Australia plans for a permanently drier future, according to the nation's urban water industries chief ...

"The urban water industry has decided the inflows of the past will never return," Water Services Association of Australia executive director Ross Young said. "We are trying to avoid the term 'drought' and saying this is the new reality."

Unless we take start leading on climate action soon, America faces the same fate: In April, Science ($ubs. req'd) published research that "predicted a permanent drought by 2050 throughout the Southwest" -- levels of aridity comparable to the 1930s Dust Bowl would stretch from Kansas to California. What causes this climatic disaster?

According to the study, as the planet warms, the Hadley Cell, which links together rising air near the Equator and descending air in the subtropics, expands poleward. Descending air suppresses precipitation by drying the lower atmosphere so this process expands the subtropical dry zones. At the same time, and related to this, the rain-bearing mid-latitude storm tracks also shift poleward. Both changes in atmospheric circulation, which are not fully understood, cause the poleward flanks of the subtropics to dry.

And that is separate from recent research that finds "future reductions in Arctic sea ice cover could significantly reduce available water in the American west" ($ubs. reqd). With the Arctic melting at a stunning rate, the West is facing a double drought whammy from climate change.

The time to act is now.

This post was created for ClimateProgress.org, a project of the Center for American Progress Action Fund.

tool

I'm too lazy to run this myself, but apparently this global water tool is supposed to tell you about water scarcity in your region.

Please check you facts

Take a look at the 30-year climate averages for rainfall and the most recent one year of data - Australia could be considered to be getting wetter in places if you trust the facts and not some second hand information.  The central and south regions of Australia (except near Perth) were always a desert of less than 300 mm (12 inches) of rainfall.  The drought maps from Australia Meteorology show very SMALL cases of serious to severe drought today, using a 12-month average, certainly not a quarter of the continent. Coastal areas have been getting a nice 900-1200 mm of rain this year (35-47 inches).  Please check your facts before pulling the trigger, hombre.  

Onward through the fog
Checking the Oz drought fact sources

Sam, the Australian newspaper story Joe quoted and this accompanying one seem to cover all the bases.  Are you aware of a problem with these?

Taking a few more minutes, I also checked to see if the Oz Bureau of Meteorology had something consistent with these stories, and they do.  In fact, from the dates it appears likely that this BOM statement led to the stories.    

Agriculture and coal

Sam, have a look at this for my state (NSW): http://www.agric.nsw.gov.au/reader/drt-area-200708-large. ...

There have been some epic rainfalls on the coast in the last quarter, but this isn't where most of the farming is, its where the people live. These rains boosted the water supply to some of the major cities  , but have done little to relieve the drought inland.

Despite this, the state government has just approved two HUGE new coal mines. Whilst they talk about tackling climate change, their actions are a serious part of the problem.

undy

"take one pill twice daily"

"One farmer kills himself every four days" is not well-worded, is it.  It sounds rather like a plot detail in the hypothetical cult-classic B-movie, "The Man Who Could Not Stay Dead."

Better would have been something like, "Every four days, another farmer kills himself."

Clearly there can be no more serious subject.  The BBC reporter should therefore have treated it with due respect, and taken greater care in expressing it.

Chickens deserve our true friendship! So do fish! So do other sentient beings! Let us learn to be kind.

No Pity for Oz

Chinese coal ships get loaded at Australian ports 24/7/365. The coal Australia exports is a specific cause of the haze that is clearing the arctic of ice. If they think that they can send the coal away and escape the climate consequences they are nuts.

The whole nation is joining the farmers in commiting suicide.

Put the Carbon Back

Check Your Sources


You claim in this article that Australia's dry spell is the "worst in 1000 years".

That is backed up by a link to another article:

http://climateprogress.org/2006/12/19/australias-facing-w ...

Which says "Along with the United States, Australia has suffered a major drought this year, "the worst for 1000 years."

That is backed up by a link to another article, not from a scientific journal, but from a newspaper:

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/section/2/story.cfm?c_id=2& ...

which says "Australia is facing its worst drought in 1000 years.

The prediction, made at an emergency summit on Australia's mounting water crisis, is 10 times worse than earlier forecasts and prompted urgent action to secure drinking water supplies for Adelaide and rural towns."

So -- suddenly it's now a "Prediction" not a fact.

Texeme.Construct(function(x)=Participation(x))

Crow eaten here ...

OK, I was looking at 30-year climactic averages and compared those rainfall maps and data points to the 12 month totals using BOM stuff.  Then I examined "extreme drought" maps prepared by the same agency for 2007.  It didn't appear too bad.  But as any farmer knows, too much or not enough rain at key times of the year can make for huge crop failures.  I missed that part ...

For example, here in Texas we generally have seen an extra 12 inches in rainfall over the last few months, which knocked the cotton crop down by 30-50%.  Many farmers went out of business as a result.  It all comes down to sol moisture - for the last two years before this wet cycle, there was absolutely no moisture in the top 16 inches of soil.  This caused more brackish water from pumps and the Rio Grande to be used, which caused poorer soil condition due to salting.  Glad I'm not a farmer.

Coal seems to be a different topic but before we jump on the Aussies for exporting coal, we need to look at what we're doing here in the US.  Ever seen Powder River coal mines from an airplane?  How about topped mountains in Appalachia?  Not only are our coaling operation massive, but we burn the stuff here, too.  /sammie

Onward through the fog

Australia runs out of farmers

Last year we learned, "One farmer takes his life every four days."

And shortly after that we had a pertient reminder that statistics quoted in the media are often pulled out of the journalist's butt.

The statistic in question turned out to be (a) two decades old, (b) was every six days anyway, not every four, and (c) completely un-related to the current drought.

Although the current drought is very bad and clearly related to climate change, suicide patterns of farmers probably have more to do with a lack of social support in rural areas, particularly for men who are trying to fit into a socially acceptable role of tough Aussie bloke.


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