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Capping carbon: Is nothing better than something?

On whether to advocate weaker climate change bills

Posted by Joseph Romm (Guest Contributor) at 4:38 PM on 22 Sep 2007

This post is by ClimateProgress guest blogger Bill Becker, Executive Director of the Presidential Climate Action Project.

How fearsome must the headlines be about tomorrow before people change their ways today?
-- Nancy Gibbs, TIME

glass1.JPGIn Greenland today, the ice is thawing at a pace that is alarming climate scientists. Meanwhile in Washington, D.C., Congress remains frozen on the issue of carbon pricing. And that may be a good thing.

Carbon pricing, as most readers of Gristmill know, is the idea that some portion of the costs of greenhouse-gas emissions should be reflected in the price consumers pay for carbon-intensive fuels. The energy that is causing global climate change would cost more than the energy that isn't, and the marketplace would become the ally of climate stabilization.

There are two schemes on the table. The first is a carbon tax -- simple, straightforward and, according to conventional wisdom, political suicide. The second approach is carbon trading. Carbon emissions would be capped; polluters would buy and sell emission permits. Carbon trading is more complex and would take longer to make a difference, but because it is not a tax, it appears to be the favored approach in Congress.

Several cap-and-trade bills have been introduced in Congress, some setting tougher goals than others. The word on the street is that the leading bill will be proposed soon by Senators Warner and Lieberman. It reportedly will call for a 15 percent reduction in carbon emissions by 2020, compared to current levels. Therein lies the rub. Is the glass (of melted ice) half empty or half full?

A 15 percent reduction falls short of the goal that many climate scientists and action advocates believe the United States must adopt. It is far less ambitious, for example, than the goal adopted by the European Union -- a 20 percent reduction by 2020, compared to 1990 emission levels.

The climate-action community has not unified around a goal for carbon reductions, or even around a way to express the goal (a topic for the future). Sixteen of the nation's most prominent environmental organizations sent a letter to senators on Sept. 14, endorsing emission reductions "at least 15 to 20 percent below current levels" by 2020, which in effect blesses the upcoming bill. In the meantime, other climate-action groups are coalescing in a campaign called 1Sky that advocates a cap twice as aggressive as the bill -- a 30 percent reduction by 2020, compared to current emissions.

The question facing climate activists is this: Should we support a weak cap-and-trade bill that is more likely to clear Congress and to be signed by President Bush? A weak bill would at least get us started on carbon pricing and, as next fall's elections approach, Democrats would not be accused of inaction. With a new President and Congress, the reasoning goes, carbon caps could be toughened later.

Or is it more likely that once Congress passes a bill -- any bill -- the political pressure for action will disappear and we'll be stuck indefinitely with a cap that isn't worthy of the world's second-largest carbon polluter? Would it be better to avoid legislation in the 110th Congress in hopes that the 111th Session and the 44th President would support a stronger bill in 2009 or 2010?

One approach is to advocate that if a bill is sent to the President this year, it should require a performance review so the issue is reopened a few years down the road.

Another approach is to keep working for aggressive carbon caps at the state level. As of last July, 29 states had or were working on their own climate action plans, although many of their targets for emission reductions are weak.

If enough states set targets, particularly at the progressive levels adopted by California and Florida, Congress would come under more pressure to pass strong and uniform national goals.

The state strategy would not result in lightening-quick action, but it's not implausible. On Sept. 12, the National Governors Association announced plans to expand state regulations on greenhouse-gas emissions -- helped by more than $600,000 from the U.S. Department of Energy, no less. In making the announcement, Republican Gov. Tim Pawlenty of Minnesota sounded the leadership theme: "We have a federal government that doesn't seem to want to move as fast or as bold as many would like." If enough states act, he said, reducing GHG emissions "becomes a de facto national policy."

A more immediate approach is to "change what is politically possible," as one climate-action leader puts it, by taking to the streets, and to the media, and to the internet, demanding that Congress get some spine. A number of events are planned between now and the end of the year, including Step It Up II, a series of rallies that Bill McKibben and his organization are facilitating around the country on Nov. 3 at places named after iconic American leaders who might serve as role models for today. Powershift 2007 is calling on students to rally in the Capital Nov. 2-7. We can expect activists to demand bolder leadership on climate when the Bush Administration hosts its climate summit Sept. 28 in Washington, D.C. (For a listing of current climate-action organizations, go here.)

So what should be our strategy? I think we should push for a cap-and-auction bill from Congress this session, but insist on a cap that not only makes meaningful reductions in emissions, but lets the global community know we're back at the table. The movement should unify around the 1Sky goal. It is closest to the goal set by the European Union and we should do no less.

So get off your couches, baby boomers. We have a few more things to do before we pass the torch. Children of baby boomers, it's time for a (peaceful) reprisal of the '60s.

See you in the streets.

This post was created for ClimateProgress.org, a project of the Center for American Progress Action Fund.

targets

States can set all the fucking targets they want -- they will never meet them. European nations have not met the targets they promised under the Kyoto Protocol. Why do you think the states will meet their targets? It's all just big bullshit. The quality of our lives depends on fossil fuel emissions, and there's no fucking way we will ever -- EVER -- reduce our standard of living. Who the fuck do you think you are? Not one of your mothers has reduced your standard of living, besides maybe screwing in an CFL instead of an incandescent. Big fucking deal. We will never -- NEVER -- agree to CO2 cutbacks. Those advocating it, like Romm, are idiots.


Hayden,

Tone it down or you're out of here.

grist.org
Waiting for the Die-Off.

The cold fact is that our society is based upon the trade of material excess as a means of accumulating status. People are able to accept painful realities if the culture at large supports the effort; look how many people adjust to commutes of over an hour each way. The majority will not yet accept a sacrifice in order to prevent climate change.

Our means of communicating what is culturally important, television, is controlled by profit-seeking corporations. Only when it is clear beyond the shadow of a doubt that climate change will make their profit schemes moot will we change the message from "buy useless stuff" to "reduce your emissions or die."

Somebody, actually several million some-bodies, are going to have to die first.

Well the monied elite don't get it even after a year in which a tornado flattened a town and another flooded the New York city subway system. We're waiting until "The Day After Tomorrow" comes knocking on the White House door personally.

Currently our system of dealing with the crisis as a culture is somewhat akin to visiting the health insurance salesman when we think we might have heart disease. We need first to see the doctor......then it's time to drink the bitter medicine of change.

We can be prepared with knowledge of what we are going to do and in what order. Install Solar thermal AND PV AND geothermal AND wind AND electrify our transportation system AND convert our ag lands to Terra Preta AND all out conservation efforts. Maybe, if we do all of that at the same time, it will be enough.

All the nitpicking and backbiting about the merits and usefulness of this system of low carbon production vs. that system of conservation has a purpose. It's like polishing a great focusing mirror. If we can get some light on that mirror, get it out into the full sun, it's going to cut the steel we need to build a better world. Today we're still in the dark.

Put the Carbon Back

Yes start carbon caps now

Congress needs to take a first step now. States can choose higher levels of commitment (like CA) and help to drive future adjustments. Tying the bill to periodic performance reviews (in terms of climate goals and incoming data) will help the cap levels evolve. The way I see it, if climate change is moving as quickly as it seems to be, it will only become more important to the general public. But waiting for the perfect congress could be like waiting for Godot.

"The object of life is not to be on the side of the majority, but to escape finding oneself in the ranks of the insane." Marcus Aurelius
Thats the real question

Perhaps we should take the kid gloves off and go for the command-and-control approach.

Get something done make it clear it's a compromise

I think the best route is to get something done, no matter what that is.  I don't know how far legislators can be pushed, hopefully someone has a good idea of that.  They should push for something safe and attainable this year, but keep the public word consistent with the message that it is a compromise so later support won't evaporate.

That has two benefits, one is it keeps people's attention, and second it unifies people.  At least that's what I hope it would do.

Taxation as a policy tool

That the author makes a series of pretty wild assumtions of the lack of efficacy of a "Cap, Allocate & Trade" system's operational structure,
is of course his own choice.

What puzzles me is his support of the widely held US-greens' faith in a carbon tax,
as if there were any comparable taxation that has shown real efficacy in controlling a really serious "bad."

In the UK, we have $9/gl petrol (about 70% tax) and consumption has been rising with the general economy.

We also have >70,000 alcoholics, despite massive taxes on their drug,
but their numbers are expanding and, most notably, the treasury has itself effectively become addicted to the alcohol revenues.
These have traditionally paid for the majority of our armed forces.

Given that we need to achieve swinging GHG output cuts to specific levels by specific dates,
is there a track record of taxation's reliability as the appropriate policy tool ?

Regards,

Bill

Efficiency Carrot

A significanr global carbon cap and excise tax could club us in the right direction in the melting decade we have to act. That combined with an efficiency tax credit might serve as an incentive to multiply our savings for innovative investments. A clean and renewable energy investment fund to provide zero interest financing might be yet another fruitful idea to add to our arsenal.

R. Clark
"The right direction" is wrong outlook.

Rdark51 -

I notice that you don't provide a track record of taxation's relevant efficacy.

That, as you say, taxation ".... might .... club us in the right direction ...."
just doesn't cut it.

Face it, if the UK and the US, as the past and present imperial powers,
will not strive for swingeing GHG output cuts to specific levels by specific dates,
why exactly should any other nation even attempt to do so ?

Thus (while I'm sure you're unaware of it),
the environment movement's devotion to general carbon taxes
is actually the very best policy gift that the fossil status quo could hope for.

Regards,

Bill

Taxes are not just about discouraging bad

[Taxation as a policy tool] makes a common mistake.  CO2 taxes can just as much be about encouraging good, which makes them different than an alcohol tax.

"Bad" is often a result of a personality flaw, addiction, or ignorance combined with fear, so it's much harder to stop then it is to create something good.  Gasoline taxes may not have stopped enough driving, but I'm sure they have something to do with the development of hybrids.  Net sum, you don't see gasoline consumption go down, but I'm sure it hasn't gone up as fast.

There are studies that have shown cases where even the "bad" approach worked.  Big taxes on cigarettes lowered the number of adolescents and teenagers buying them here in Illinois.  Didn't do much about the adults.

A CO2 tax is so pervasive a lot of good is sure to come of it.  At the very least, efficient companies will make money, while inefficient ones will lose money.  In time economic darwinism will defeat even the "bad" despite the irrational supports.

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