Hybrid wars

Honda fights to regain green car company mantle

Posted by David Roberts at 7:45 AM on 29 Aug 2007

Honda entered the hybrid market before Toyota, but over time it made a fateful mistake: it failed to visually distinguish its line of hybrids. The Prius' distinct shape is like peacock feathers -- it signals your identity to the world. Who wants to be virtuous if nobody knows about it?

Now Honda's gotten the message and it's returning to the fight:

[Honda is] working on a new high-profile hybrid -- a Prius fighter that analysts expect will have the highest mileage on the road when it arrives in 2009. Code-named the "Global Small Hybrid," Honda's new gas-electric model won't be a version of anything else in its lineup. Instead, Honda execs say it will be a five-passenger, small family car priced under $22,000. This time Honda won't make the mistake of wrapping its hybrid in the sheet metal of its everyday cars: instead, analysts expect the new Honda will have the larva styling the Prius pioneered -- which now embodies the green-car look. Honda will also outdo the $23,000, 60mpg Prius on price and mileage in hopes of attracting 100,000 buyers a year--three times what the hybrid Civic sells.

Sweet!

Meanwhile, Toyota is expanding the Prius into a whole line:

Industry sources say Toyota is developing three Prius models--a small car, a family car and a crossover utility vehicle that will begin rolling out in 2009. All will be sold inside the Toyota showroom, but in a separate area, like its youth brand, Scion. "Ten years ago people tried the Prius because it was a Toyota," says Press. "Today, people are buying Toyotas because we have the Prius."

Even GM's finally getting in the game:

General Motors, which dismissed the Prius as a curiosity a few years ago, is now rolling out four hybrids and generating buzz for its Chevy Volt plug-in hybrid electric car, which it says will hit the road in 2010.

Unanswered in all of this is my central question about hybrids: Where's my hybrid minivan? I'm telling you, that market is going to be huge.

For story: Hybrid wars
33 Comments | Post a Comment

If only I could get a nickel for every prediction

I make that comes true (and especially for every one that does not). So, people are wanting to compete with each other using efficiency. It gets complicated though, because it is more than just efficiency. A bike kicks any car's butt on that issue. You must also get efficiency without appearing to have given up anything that might impart an advantage to someone in your peer group (that mental image we have in our heads of who we are or how we want to be percieved)--five passengers, four doors and a trunk for thirty something middle class, possibly the image of the free-wheeling Volkswagen van filled with liberal minded, young boistrous people going hiking or to play ultimate.

Minivan. Take a look at it from the side. How is it different from other cars with similar capacity? What use do you put it too? Some things are set in stone by physics. High mileage on highways will require low drag. More mass takes more energy to start and stop.

This will never end. Car shapes will continue to wriggle and morph year to year as people compete. We are starting to see some old shapes get recycled as with the mustang, the PT cruiser.

Nobody makes the car I want.

In the end, it all comes down to biodiversity. Poison Darts--Protecting the biodiversity of our world

by biodiversivist at 9:04 AM on 29 Aug 2007

according to Jevons Paradox

given the efficiency of hybrid vehicles, I expect a few neighbors to start showing up in hybrid trucks. Next we will have to knock out a few houses to make room to park the things, and more to widen the narrow windy road that comes into the neighborhood, and more to widen the beltway, already too small for its existing traffic load... Unless there is also a cap, and like maybe a carbon tax.

by RoninGeographer at 9:15 AM on 29 Aug 2007

re: Where's my hybrid minivan?

I think David has a good idea here. Yes, it's hard to get too much of an efficiency bump from a big box on wheels that generally has a small engine anyway (or used to - I haven't ridden in one in years). But think of the soccer moms competeing with each other for green status. This is a market that has a huge green potential if we can get them in the right mindset. This is the population that spends a large amount of time shopping, driving, and interacting with the next generation.

by Matt G at 9:21 AM on 29 Aug 2007

Insight

What's odd is that Honda had the best performing hybrid on the market in the 2-seater Insight, which has an extremely distinctive styling to minimize drag. Didn't sell--even though it should have been the obvious choice for car-sharing and the millions of people who don't have kids and who spend nearly all driving time alone in the car.

The 5% Project

by JMG at 9:25 AM on 29 Aug 2007

You're right to think big

A Prius may only get 20% better gas mileage than a Yaris, but a Ford Escape Hybrid SUV gets roughly 35% better mileage than its non-hybrid counterpart. The bigger the guzzler, the more you'll save by making it a hybrid or electric.

Join the discussion on global warming, recycling, and organic beer at The Green Miles!

by TheGreenMiles at 9:36 AM on 29 Aug 2007

Insight

I test drove one before I got my Prius. I balanced in my mind that it was 2-passenger, had that funky cargo well, etc. A big deal for me was bike capacity. I heard from a guy who had to take both(!) wheels off to fit a bike inside. And that his MPG fell from 70 to less than 30 with two bikes on top.

In short, I think it was a great commuter car for people who could use it just in that role (or maybe a 2-person road trip car).

With a custom hitch receiver and a Hollywood Sport Rack, I'm getting 51mpg right now, with a mountain bike hanging off my Prius.

by odograph at 9:38 AM on 29 Aug 2007

GreenMiles

You'll save even more by leaping to a Prius. I used to use things like Jeep Cherokees to get my mountain bike to the trail.

by odograph at 9:39 AM on 29 Aug 2007

Re: Insight

" it should have been the obvious choice for car-sharing and the millions of people who don't have kids and who spend nearly all driving time alone in the car."

I was exactly that market - green loving, no kids, and a long commute. But everyone drives guests around, and I wouldn't consider a 2-seater unless it was a 2nd or 3rd car.

by Matt G at 9:48 AM on 29 Aug 2007

convertibles

I did a few years with a 2-seat convertible as my only car ... but as Matt says, it wears when that is your only option. It's much easier when that is the extra car.

I wonder how well a 2-seat convertible hybrid could do? Probably well in the market, but the aerodynamics could be tough.

by odograph at 9:54 AM on 29 Aug 2007

Where's my hybrid minivan...

Right on, DR, I've been asking that for YEARS.

And Matt G, it has nothing to do with soccer moms competing to be green -- it has to do with soccer moms wanting to buy less gas and have the kids breathing cleaner air. And caring about global warming. That one-upmanship stuff is for the dads. :-)

by GreenMom at 9:59 AM on 29 Aug 2007

All cars are ugly - status icons of consumption

by sunflower at 10:00 AM on 29 Aug 2007

status icons of consumption....

...yeah, for some, but the rest of us have to go to work, buy groceries for the family, and shuttle kids around. Much as I'd love to do that on a bike, it ain't happening any time soon.

Your self-righteous isn't going to change that, and it certainly isn't going to help change hearts and minds.

by GreenMom at 10:32 AM on 29 Aug 2007

Blast iconoclasts, if you will

I don't fail value systems, I reject value systems. That does piss off a lot of people. So be it, I reject icon value systems.

I hate cars. I think they are butt ugly. I will not wash our Prius, pisses off Cassandra (owner). I will drive any old junk truck, but only when absolutely necessary.

I am [often mistaken as] a dirty hippie.

Be not dismayed, I don't care about cars, just shooting the breeze before I get back to work shooting dangerous technology against coal.

by sunflower at 11:04 AM on 29 Aug 2007

Like I said, JMG

"...because it is more than just efficiency. You must also get efficiency without appearing to have given up anything that might impart an advantage to someone in your peer group (that mental image we have in our heads of who we are or how we want to be percieved)--five passengers, four doors and a trunk for thirty something middle class."

GreenMom,

Statistically speaking, some drives in men are stronger, and some drives in women are stronger. Women also seek status, just not as hard. It has a lot to do with soccer moms competing. You can buy a van today with near zero emissions that isn't a hybrid. There is no guarantee that you will ever recoup the higher cost of a hybrid with better gas mileage. There are also more efficient ways to care about global warming. You probably are just not aware of some of your subconscious instinctive urges. Pretty much everyone admits status seeking exists. The odd thing about status seeking is that only other people do it.

In the end, it all comes down to biodiversity. Poison Darts--Protecting the biodiversity of our world

by biodiversivist at 11:10 AM on 29 Aug 2007

Where Honda really fights back

Likely where Honda will really fight back is that they have a patent on an impressively elegant Nitrogen Oxide filter technology, that should open the way for larger Diesel usage in the US.

Since it would offer near hybrid mileage, at a lower price tag.
http://world.honda.com/news/2006/c060925DieselEngine

Reason Hybrids have had such a slow start in Europe is that nearly 1 in 2 of every new car is sold as a Diesel.

-David Ahlport

by GreyFlcn at 11:46 AM on 29 Aug 2007

Diesel Engines

Don't they run most efficient at a constant speed? It would be nice if they left everyone in the efficiency dust with a diesel hybrid.

by Matt G at 11:57 AM on 29 Aug 2007

Matt

I agree that this would be one incredibly efficient machine. The problem is cost. Take your simple reliable diesel engine, add an expensive, complex, high pressure high rpm turbo charger, super high pressure injection system, a battery of air pollution control devices like the NOx filter, and suddenly, the car is neither simple or cheap. Now make it a hybrid and you have a car few can afford.

In the end, it all comes down to biodiversity. Poison Darts--Protecting the biodiversity of our world

by biodiversivist at 12:18 PM on 29 Aug 2007

whoa

Take your simple reliable diesel engine, add an expensive, complex, high pressure high rpm turbo charger, super high pressure injection system, a battery of air pollution control devices like the NOx filter, and suddenly, the car is neither simple or cheap. Now make it a hybrid and you have a car few can afford.

Yeah, but for those that could, think of the status that would confer!

by gmunger at 12:34 PM on 29 Aug 2007
[ Parent ]

Danm, you're right Gmunger

It could be a high end car even I would envy.

In the end, it all comes down to biodiversity. Poison Darts--Protecting the biodiversity of our world

by biodiversivist at 12:36 PM on 29 Aug 2007

Hey biodiversivist

"You can buy a van today with near zero emissions that isn't a hybrid."

Really? What van? That I can carpool my kids in? Cleaner than my Prius? That I can afford? Point me there!

And yes, I'm well aware there are more efficient ways to care about global warming, some of which I also pursue...but I still have to drive a car, and I want the cleanest one I can find (emission-wise, anyway...you wouldn't believe the crumbs on the backseat...).

And yes, we all compete in some arena or other, but cars are not high on the soccer-mom status symbol list, at least where I live.

Nevertheless, I do wholeheartedly believe, as DR pointed out, that the market potential for a hybrid minivan is HUMONGOUS. If only Toyota or Honda or whomever would respond... Toyota actually makes one -- they've been selling it in Japan since 2001.

by GreenMom at 12:43 PM on 29 Aug 2007

Well, it'd be nice

It'll be nice when they finally make a series hybrid version of this car.

http://greyfalcon.net/phoenixsuv.png

-David Ahlport

by GreyFlcn at 1:06 PM on 29 Aug 2007
[ Parent ]

pragmatism

We live in nations with X consumption of fossil fuels per capita. Anything we can do to reduce the growth in X is an improvement. Anything we can do to reduce X is genuine accomplishment.

What's the best strategy for that?

I think it's to get people out of < 30 mpg cars and into > 40 mpg cars. The Prius is an excellent general purpose car that fits that bill, but not the only one.

Getting people to give up cars completely would be fantastic, but what good is selling a medicine few will swallow?

by odograph at 1:14 PM on 29 Aug 2007

Crank Up Some 3 Dog Night, Dad -- on the Prius !

Hybrids are the 8-track players of automobiles...a bridge between where we are -- and where we want to be.

The 8-track took us from phonographs to CDs. It was smaller than a record, but it only had semi random access (as a tape, it was still sequential, though you could skip across the 4 pairs of 2 track stereo). It was still analog...but portable and durable.

Yet, once CDs became widely available the 8-track (and casette) disappeared...leaving the hapless owners of "The Plunger" -- a portable candy colored 8-track player to sheepishly claim they bought it for it's "retro value" (in order to not belie their real age).

Quick and sustainable hydrogen generation is here, today.

Regular engines can be easily converted, with $30 worth of parts and labor, to run on hydrogen.

Storage currently can only get us 100 miles -- but by 2008 we'll have tanks with absorbent material that can take us 300. In fact, I think that is why the Hummer is "more green" long term. It's engine can burn hydrogen. And it's big enough to hold lots of hydrogen storage tanks.

So, ten years from now, when that Prius is up on cinder blocks in the front yard, and a hot young girl comes cruising by, you can sheepishly explain "oh, yeah, I bought that Prius for its retro value".

by jabailo at 1:26 PM on 29 Aug 2007

media

Sorry J, your metaphor crashes on the fact that the hybrids' fuel is the same as cars that came before, and probably quite a few hundred million cars that will come after it.

The 8-track player had a media problem. It could not play LPs, it could not play cassettes, it could not play CDs.

Or are you predicting that gas stations will soon close?

by odograph at 1:30 PM on 29 Aug 2007

... yeah

Didn't we already cover that hydrogen is a joke?

Especially if we wanted it to be "green" hydrogen.
http://greyfalcon.net/hydrogen2.png

-David Ahlport

by GreyFlcn at 1:31 PM on 29 Aug 2007
[ Parent ]

VOLT will rule

Honda hybrids and the Prius are pathetic and ineffective attempts to squeeze a few more miles out of a miniscule mini that meets the driving needs of practically no one. Look at the pathetic Camry hybird and the late, not lamented Honda Accord hybrid, another Honda flop. These folks are thinking inside the box. An old box called the non-plug-in hybrid that has been an utter failure - we are using even more gasoline than we ever did. Time for the GM plug-in dual-modes and , the ultimate, the Checy and Opel VOLTs. NOW we will see some crude reduction, and reduction in Honda and Toyota hybrid sales to boot.

by theBike45 at 1:50 PM on 29 Aug 2007

Caviat

Caviat: Don't expect to see any significant number of Volts in dealerships for nearly the next half decade.
http://greyfalcon.net/volt

-David Ahlport

by GreyFlcn at 2:02 PM on 29 Aug 2007
[ Parent ]

Volt

It is vaporware, plain and simple.

by odograph at 2:12 PM on 29 Aug 2007

plug-in hybrids

For those of you interested in plug-in hybrids, I've created a wiki to help demonstrate to Toyota and other Hybrid manufacturers just how many folks are interested in owning a PHEV while at the same time promoting a greater awareness of their benefits. It even includes options for expressing this interest in Japanese. Please consider joining me in my effort:

http://phev.wikispaces.com

While you're at it, check out "POTUS42", the Presidential Mercury Mariner Hybrid, a recent addition to the list of PHEV Wannabes.

http://plugin-wannabe.wikispaces.com/potus42

by mashuzu34 at 11:23 PM on 29 Aug 2007

T-Rex

BTW, if this report is true an electric T-Rex is due out here in California in mid-September. That's almost here.

I don't like "vapor" but I'll count them as soon as they actually ship to live customers.

(found via EV World)

by odograph at 6:38 AM on 30 Aug 2007

Depends

Take your simple reliable diesel engine, add an expensive, complex, high pressure high rpm turbo charger, super high pressure injection system, a battery of air pollution control devices like the NOx filter, and suddenly, the car is neither simple or cheap.

Actually it ranks a few thousand $ less than a comprable hybrid.

More than a conventional gasoline car though obviously.

But yeah, toss in the hybrid aspect, and it would break the bank.

-David Ahlport

by GreyFlcn at 6:47 AM on 30 Aug 2007
[ Parent ]

Something smells funny

The Volt will have what can best be described as an "emergency get your butt home when your battery dies" motor. Their claim that it would get about 50 MPG is either BS or the mileage it would get limping home at 30 MPH using essentially a lawnmower engine. If they could get 50 MPG lugging around 500 pounds of dead batteries, imagine what they could get by jettisoning the batteries. This car is just the remains of their experiments with fuel cells. They have replaced the fuel cell with a lawnmower powered generator, which defeats the entire design.

In the end, it all comes down to biodiversity. Poison Darts--Protecting the biodiversity of our world

by biodiversivist at 8:18 AM on 30 Aug 2007

Bring on the hybrid rivalry! where's Ford?

And what happened to FoMoCo's plan to becoming the leading producer of hybrids come 2010? In terms of developing a successor to the internal combustion engine, Ford is very much trailing behind Toyota in this race. Now if only Ford kept their promise of hybrid plans they could have surpassed hybrid pioneer Honda when it comes to models sold in the U.S. On a positive note GMC was able to offer us the world's first two mode hybrid SUV coupled with exciting GMC truck parts. And that is something we could be happy about. Indeed going green is not that easy and our auto industry's history is full of abandoned and failed hybrid promises. But we can always hope for the best in the battle of automakers for hybrid supremacy.

"if you can't win the race, make the one ahead break the record"

by Stan1624 at 10:44 PM on 05 Feb 2008

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