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Dust to dumb

Prius easily beats Hummer in lifecycle energy use; 'Dust to Dust' report has no basis in fact

Posted by Joseph Romm (Guest Contributor) at 12:42 PM on 27 Aug 2007

hummer-prius.jpgA study came out recently claiming to prove a Hummer has lower lifecycle energy use than a Prius. Because the result was so obviously bogus -- and in sharp contradiction with every other major lifecycle analysis ever done -- I didn't spend time debunking it.

But it made it into the comments of my blog and continues to echo around the internet, and the authors keep updating and defending it. A couple of good debunking studies -- by the Pacific Institute (PDF) and by Rocky Mountain Institute (PDF) -- haven't gotten much attention, according to Technorati, so let me throw in my two cents.

The study's title is revealing: Dust to Dust: The Energy Cost of New Vehicles From Concept to Disposal, The non-technical report, from CNW Marketing Research, Inc. Yes, although lifecycle energy use is probably the most complicated kind of energy analysis you can do, this 458-page report is "non-technical" and by a market research company to boot.

Their website says the report "does not include issues of gigajuelles [sic!], kW hours or other unfriendly (to consumers) terms. Perhaps, in time, we will release our data in such technical terms. First, however, we will only look at the energy consumption cost."

Wouldn't want to confuse consumers with unfriendly technical stuff like kilowatt-hours, like those annoying electric utilities do every month. No, let's put everything in dollar terms so no one can reproduce our results. When you misspell gigajoules on your website -- and have for a long time (try googling "gigajuelles") ... you aren't the most technical bunch.

I am mocking this report because it is the most contrived and mistake-filled study I have ever seen -- by far (and that's saying a lot, since I worked for the federal government for five years). I am not certain there is an accurate calculation in the entire report. I say this without fear of contradiction, because this is also the most opaque study I have ever seen -- by far. I defy anyone to figure out their methodology.

In this post I'm just going to highlight the most inane claims -- and again, they can only be treated as claims because the report omits all the underlying calculations.

Let me first give one rule of thumb. U.S. energy costs have been about 7% to 8% of GDP for most of the last two decades, but were a bit higher during the energy shocks of the '70s, as well as in the last couple of years. The Energy Information Administration projects energy costs will be 5.3% of GDP in 2030. As a rough estimate, then, you can figure the dollar value of energy embedded in most products as 5% to 10% of their cost -- and that includes all the energy consumed in the product lifecycle, such as manufacturing and shipping.

The CNW study makes the astonishing claim that the Prius has lifecycle energy costs of $3.25 per mile (of which its on-road gasoline consumption is only $0.075 [yes, 7.5 cents] , whereas a Hummer H3 has an energy cost per mile of $1.95 (of which $0.187 is direct fuel consumption). I kid you not.

This is in direct contradiction with essentially every other lifecycle study ever done, in which direct fuel consumption is typically 70% to 90% of a vehicle's lifecycle energy use (see here). CNW finds it comprises about 2% to 10%!

This range of energy costs per mile leads to one obvious question about CNW's results, which many people have raised. Let me quote one Roy W. Spencer -- yes, the global warming denyer -- from the Report's Appendix:

Question: I was wondering, how can a car that costs the consumer, say, $20,000 new and uses around $15,000 in fuel over a 100,000 mile lifetime end up having a total energy cost of, say, $250,000 ($2.50 per mile)? (Since this is way more than the consumer has paid, ... which is more like $35,000.) If $250,000 really was the true energy cost, wouldn't a car be much more expensive to the buyer than it is now?

Duh! Or maybe, D'oh! Indeed, since, as noted, embedded lifecycle energy costs are typically 5% to 10% of a product's total lifecycle costs, CNW's study implies that the total ownership cost of a family car is, roughly, $2.5 to $5.0 million -- or about $400,000 to $800,000 a year! You never knew you were so rich.

How could CNW possibly come up with such absurd results? I can't say for sure since the report omits any methodology, but CNW's unbelievable answer to Spencer contains some clues:

Roy ... Excellent question and point.

If an automobile lived in a capsule, if there were no other energy requirements for supporting the infrastructure of automotive driving, you are correct. A consumer would be asked to pay literally 10s of thousands of dollars for a vehicle.

But cars live in an infrastructure including support services (oil changes, for example) and disposal industries.

That added cost per mile is borne by other industries and generate profits for those industries. For example, recycling (many) of the parts of a vehicle is highly energy intense. Fortunately, those costs are borne by secondary industries because they are willing to pay in excess of the cost for the resulting components or recycled material.

Honest to goodness that is their entire answer (see pages 335 and 336 [PDF]). I'll bet you never knew those oil changes were so expensive and so energy-intensive -- next time, get the service plan! Do they really mean to suggest that the energy consumed by servicing your car is comparable to the energy consumed running it? Yes. Seriously. In fact, they say the lifetime gasoline consumption for a Prius comes to around $8,000 but the energy cost from repair and maintenance is $22,000!

(You may wonder how CNW makes such an obvious blunder. I think the mistake they made is assuming the energy cost is equal to the entire lifetime cost of repair and maintenance, rather than, say, 5% of it. But don't quote me on that -- their methodology is unfathomable.)

The recycling claim is even more stunning. Most people would say that in a lifecycle analysis, you should reward a company for recyclable parts. That is, you should probably subtract the embedded energy in recyclable parts, since such parts avoid the need to manufacture new parts in another car. The study even notes, "Current hybrids have components that are capable of being recycled in a higher proportion of their total social energy costs than non-hybrid models."

So does a hybrid in fact benefit from being more recyclable? Of course, not, says CNW:

In all, while the industry as a whole the cost of recycling [sic] is about $119,000 per vehicle, hybrids cost more than $140,000 per vehicle to recycle.

I know you must by now be thinking I'm making this up. No one on the face of this earth -- not even the most benighted analyst desperately trying to make hybrids look bad -- could possibly believe this. Let me quote further (page 235):

How can a vehicle costing $30,000 generate $140,000 in recyclables?

Remember that we are discussing energy usage, not the cost of the vehicle. Over time, for instance, the vehicle will sell on average of five times in its lifetime, each time at a portion of its original cost but generally bringing the lifetime expenditure for the vehicle into the two to four times original cost range depending on desirability and demand.

Seriously. It appears -- and again, I'm trying to take this nonsense at face value -- somehow the resale cost of a used car is being counted fully as part of its lifecycle energy cost under the recycling category. Even though the resale cost has no connection to energy use at all. What is scary is CNW really seems to believe this claptrap. They continue:

We are also discussing energy consumption, not costs. That $140,000 in recyclable energy costs will generate $160,000 to $220,000 in net revenue to recyclers. Additionally, the support industries to recyclers expend significant energy for the production and maintenance of necessary recycling equipment. Government agencies and those who remanufacture recycled material into other products similarly expend significant quantities of energy in support of the recycling of a single car.

The reason we include all of this into the vehicle's social energy cost is simple: As with research and development, we cannot be certain that recycled material will ever get into secondary products.

Has your head exploded yet? What could they possibly mean, "$140,000 in recyclable energy costs will generate $160,000 to $220,000 in net revenue to recyclers"? Does the $140,000 come from the used car buyers or just the recyclers? How could a $30,000 car generate $160,000 to $220,000 in net revenue to recyclers? Who could believe such a thing?

Even their own internal logic is illogical. They are including this phantasmagorical $140,000 because "we cannot be certain that recycled material will ever get into secondary products." This implies someone is paying that money for no reason whatsoever. They are spending $140,000 in recyclable energy costs, but then aren't recycling. Who are these recyclers? Donald Trump?

"Government agencies ... similarly expend significant quantities of energy in support of the recycling of a single car." I feel like John McEnroe: "You cannot be serious!"

If you want to see how a highly credible lifecycle energy model -- Argonne National Laboratory's widely used GREET model -- analyzes a Prius versus a Hummer, read the short Rocky Mountain Institute study (PDF).

As for CNW, the only explanation I can come up for this absurdity piled on top of absurdity is that the marketing firm is putting on an elaborate hoax, seeing how many reputable news organizations repeat these laughable numbers without bothering to check the original study to see that they have no basis whatsoever in fact. After all, no one could believe all this. Could they?

All too common

Counterintuitive "Lifecycle" analysis seems to the current trademark of anyone who has a reason to dislike X or Y green solution/alternative.

I've had the same kinds of comments about CFL's popup up quite often.  It's likewise ridiculous to suggest that a product sold for $3, and recycled for another $3 actually uses more energy in production/recycling than the $60 in energy from a wall socket it will over it's life save.

I am pretty sure the reason this tactic is so popular is because it allows the opposition to pose as green rather than the "opposition", and thus disguise their true motives.

Gotcher methodology right here....

It's aluminum, it holds about 15 gallons, attracts red plastic cups and frat boys.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Keg

Coinkidincally it also contains the source methodology for "clean coal," "cheap nuclear power," and "reducing our dependence on oil imports through expansion of biofuels." It's the conservative wishful thinkers best friend.

Just make sure the guy who can type stays sober so you can take notes.

Put the Carbon Back

Prius Is More Complicated


There are some basic things about the Prius that I think could account for its higher lifetime costs.

First of all -- it has two engines.  A gas engine and an electric engine.   Even the most eco aware person must see that that kind of redundancy can lead to problems.

Obviously with two engines, and all the needed drive train machinery and the computers to switch them back and forth -- well, there's gonna be problems.

Also, the point of the Prius is that it excels being at stuck in traffic.   That's basically what it's designed for.   But the moment you take it up to highway speeds, watch out -- it's a gas guzzler!  

Contrast that with a Hummer owner who may live in a suburban rural area with low traffic -- he's gonna be doing 40+ all day long.  

The other thing is that small is not always beautiful.  Small parts, higher reving engines, small wheelbases, tend to create more brittleness and higher wear.   A big old Hummer will absorb the tension better.

scary

wow, what a comparison.   You're wrong on most everything you say.

Prius has a gas engine and an electric motor.   electric motors are 10 time simpler and more reliable than a gas engine.    The more unreliable gas engine runs less and thus break downs less than in a regular car because the reliable electric motor runs alone more often.

The electronics are more complicated, but its Toyota of which I would have more confidence in than GM's Hummer.  

I could see that you wouldn't want the Hummer in traffic, much better for off road use.

I also know about a rich 16 year old kid who got a Hummer from his parents and within a short time ran over and killed a women who was running on the side of the road.  To big a vehicle?   could've been run over by a prius, sure, but the size and bad visibility of the hummer with an inexperienced driver is a bad combination.

Bigger is safer.   but for the people in the big vehicle.  for everybody else, it can be a danger.  

kind of curious why a prius can't be driven in a suburban rural area and how a Hummer is going to get mileage in the 40's.   But I'm pretty much confused and astonished by everything you write, which is your real intent I'm sure.

Prius is not a highway guzzler

The Prius is not a gas guzzler at high speeds.  I've driven more highway miles than you would believe in my Prius, and it has never averaged less than 45 mpg, measured either per trip, per tankful, per short or long hop on the highway, or any other way you please.

Aveo -- Why Carry Around 2 engines?


It's great that you can get 40-50 mpg with a Prius.

However, a Chevy Aveo -- much cheaper and simpler -- gets 38 mpg.

http://www.theautochannel.com/news/2007/02/20/037740.html ...

Even at today's high fuel prices, it seems to me the Aveo would be just as "green" and yet better for the consumer in terms of price and simplicity of repair.

Also, it's not carrying around a lot of batteries with their toxic materials.

Avero

According to your link gets 27/37 manual, 25/34 automatic.  That's great.  Good for them.  I support anything better than standard efficiency.  But the Prius gets 45/48.  And this is just the first generation - future models will likely land higher or even use no fuel during a commute (plug-in hybrids).  

So I'm missing your argument.  Batteries are much worse than burning fuel?  Maybe, but you'd have to convince me of that.

math ?'s

So can you please provide a bit more elaboration on if US energy costs are 7-8% of GDP than it follows that a durable good has a associated energy cost of 7-8%?  I'm not trying to be a smart a$$. I'm just trying to understand your logic and thought process. Some products obviously take way more energy to produce than others. Can you cite any other studies not linked to proving or disproving this one that used your "rule of thumb" about associated energy costs?  If reputabel ones exist, I can move on.

Of course, explanation your logic and thought process will provide insight as to how willing we are to accept or refute the rest of your methods of debunking the "study". Please also explain how your rule of thumb could or could not be used to conclude that by 2015 20% of the cost of a vehicle an be attributed to health care which is estimated at that time to be 20% of GDP. Then there is the cost of crime associated to GDP... (real or imagined in the case of a Hummer... OK now I AM being a smart a$$).

Hybrid...Schmybrid! We Got Free H

Engineers perfecting hydrogen-generating technology

http://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2007-08/pu-eph0827 ...

WEST LAFAYETTE, Ind. - Researchers at Purdue University have further developed a technology that could represent a pollution-free energy source for a range of potential applications, from golf carts to submarines and cars to emergency portable generators.


Thanks for debunking this nonsense

It is indeed surprising how many times this nonsense has found it's way into various publications and how often those of us who own and drive the Prius have to defend our choice of automobile.  I'll grant you the original report doesn't give one much to work with other than frightening (and unsupported) conclusions.  Being a simple sort of fellow, I approached it in a simple sort of way.  I began to wonder who was actually paying for all this energy my driving a Prius was inflicting on society.  If I drive my 2005 Prius for 100,000 miles, to keep the math simple, then at $3.25 a mile, somebody is going to be picking up a tab for $325,000.  I knew it wasn't going to be me, because my car only cost $26,000 (I got the fancy one with navigation).  I have been getting a consistent 48 mpg and haven't had to spend but a few dollars on routine service, so when was that big bill going to arrive and who was it being sent to?  

I finally decided that someone had made a mistake somewhere and I was comfortable that it wasn't me, so I have now felt secure enough to leave the house in my Prius, confident that I didn't need to trade it in on a Hummer after all:)

Thanks again

Randal

Joseph Romm

re: Jabailo OMG HYDROGEN!

Perhaps you should read this book.
I've heard good things about the author :P


-David Ahlport

This paragraph cracked me up...

"I am mocking this report because it is the most contrived and mistake-filled study I have ever seen -- by far (and that's saying a lot, since I worked for the federal government for five years). I am not certain there is an accurate calculation in the entire report. I say this without fear of contradiction, because this is also the most opaque study I have ever seen -- by far. I defy anyone to figure out their methodology."

Go to autobloggreen for more.

In the end, it all comes down to biodiversity. Poison Darts--Protecting the biodiversity of our world

It Does't Really Matter

Using neither a Hummer or Prius is sustainable. If everyone in China had a Prius, we would all be in a lot of trouble. The solution is to invest resources in public transit and cycling facilities. Because Priuses cost less to operate, they will likely encourage people to drive more, creating more congestion on our already overcrowded highways.

With bridges and roads all around America crumbing, we cann't even seem to gather enough resources to repair what we have let alone build more. Rail infrastructure can move a lot more people and it takes up a lot less space.

The age of the automobile is over. Hybrids only serve to prolong the agony.

Richard

Baby, Baby, Baby You're out of time...

Romm's book:

"updated in 2005"

2005?

That's like the 1820's (Little Ice Age) at the rate of progress in hydrogen generation technology.

Anyone working from references in 2006, 2005, 2004, 2003 when it comes to energy technology is

"Obsolete my baby...my poor discarded baby...I said Baby, Baby, Baby you're out of taaahhhhmmmmm!!"

Not impressed

"2005?

That's like the 1820's at the rate of progress in hydrogen generation technology."

Are you even attempting to convince anyone of your point of view?  I'm not impressed with your comments on the Prius or hydrogen.  Try citing some sources to support your argument.

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