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How much wind and solar could we have gotten for the cost of the Iraq War?

Posted by David Roberts at 4:27 PM on 27 Aug 2007

Solar Mirrors

Using solar thermal numbers (1 bbl./m2/year, $150/m2, ROI 10%/year), that war money would buy 83 million barrels of oil equivalent per day for 25 years.  I think that is total global supply.


slipped a decimal?

I get 8.2 Mbbl/day.  That's a bit over a third of our (the US) total daily consumption.  Still quite alot, but not instant freedom from fossil fuels, alas.

Did not slip

Lay out capital ($150/m2) (1 bbl./m2/year) and return 10% per year makes a solar thermal investment equal $15/bbl/year.  Lovins and BrightSource both concur.  Divide $454 billion (Iraq war) by $15/bbl (solar thermal) and by 365 days/year and I get 83 million bbl per day.  Astonishing.  And all that money is returned for more fun.

Am I going nuts?  The numbers are so easy.  Now, for the Lunar eclipse...

Not relevant

OK, fine.  $454 billion is a big number, so if you divide it by smaller numbers you also get big numbers.  But our electric doesn't come from oil to any significant degree (about 6% of total US consumption), so while the Iraq war may or may not have been fought over oil, it certainly wasn't fought over electricity.  We might just as well ask how many pretty ponies could have been bought for $454 billion.  Also preferable to the Iraq war, but perhaps more relevant since we could use those ponies for transportation and displace some oil consumption...

OK, I did slip into the twilight

$454 billion will buy 3 billion m2 solar mirrors which is worth 3 billion barrels of oil per year for 25 years, or 8 million barrels per day.  The money does come back for more fun in the sun @ $15/bbl equivalent.

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