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China and the long-distance runner

Will bikes or cars win?

Posted by Jon Rynn (Guest Contributor) at 10:23 AM on 22 Aug 2007

China has an environmental problem. No, I'm not talking about weathering huge dust storms, opening one coal power plant a week, surpassing the U.S. as the largest emitter of carbon dioxide, or flooding ecosystems with huge dam projects. I'm talking about something serious: If pollution does not get better in Beijing in time for the 2008 Olympics, the long-distance track events may be canceled.

According to an article in the San Francisco Chronicle, "China's new middle class in love with cars -- big cars":

The auto boom has dire implications for next summer's Olympic Games in Beijing because it contributes to the noxious cap of smog that makes it the world's most polluted capital city.

Jacques Rogge, the International Olympic Committee president, suggested at a ceremony in Beijing on Aug. 8 that events such as long-distance races might have to be postponed if the smog remains too heavy a year from now. "My concerns, which I believe are the concerns of everyone, are the climate and the environment, and especially the air environment," he said.

This weekend, in a test of the drastic anti-pollution measures expected for the eve of the Games next year, Beijing authorities are banning half of all vehicles from city streets, alternating days between odd-numbered and even-numbered license plates.

Also, Chinese car ownership is projected to increase dramatically:

The biggest car-buying boom in world history is under way in China as vast numbers of people join the middle class, abandon their bicycles for autos and sport utility vehicles -- and, in the process, add to China's already fast-growing emissions of greenhouse gases ... total car ownership is expected to surpass the U.S. level by 2025.

There is a sliver of hope that the growth of public transit may at least keep pace with the growth of cars:

In the past seven years, Shanghai has built five subway lines covering 80 miles, carrying 2 million passengers per day, and 170 miles more are under construction. Auto license plates are limited by quota and sold by auction to the highest bidders, fetching prices as high as 50,000 yuan, or $6,700.

Also, according to the Chinese government, by 2020 Beijing will have the largest metro system in the world.

So what happened to the bicycles? According to a Chinese government story about bicycles in China, in 2000, on average, each Chinese family had 1.63 bicycles, which fell to 1.2 in 2005. But that's still a lot of bikes. In addition, according to the SF Chronicle article, "Shanghai authorities have spearheaded use of the electric bicycle -- a contraption that can be recharged at home and allows the user to go about 10 miles per hour."

Like much else in China, there is a race on between a sustainable model -- in this case, a transportation system based on bicycles and public transit -- and a model contributing to environmental collapse and oil shortages; that is, an automobile-centered system. The fate of China, and perhaps much of the fate of the planet, may rest on the outcome of this long-distance race.

I met a man in Xi'an

and in our conversation I told him I was going to rent a bicycle to ride on the city wall.  He found it hilarious that Americans, who can afford to drive, would choose to ride a bike for fun.  Cars are valued above most everything there, and completely rule the roads - pedestrians and bicycles have to wait for a break in traffic to cross car lanes.

I did notice an overwhelming number of electric scooters in both Beijing and Shanghai - at first I assumed everyone just went around coasting their scooters downhill to save money, until I realized they were all electric and therefore silent.

The subways are great!

I rode the subways in both Shanghai and Beijing last year, and they're great. They have plenty of signage, much of it with English translations for visitors. (The ticket machines in Shanghai were less consistent with the English translations, but a couple of English-speaking local residents helped me out.)

The maglev train from the airport is pretty impressive, too.

One question is whether the subways can handle the huge annual ridership increases that will probably occur if people continue to move from rural to urban areas at the current pace.

new money

I was in Beijing for a couple weeks in April --- met a guy from Shanghai.  According to him cars are a status symbol in Beijing, whereas apartments are in Shanghai.  Interesting...

Cory
No Power for the Impotent

I lived in Beijing in 2001-2002.  On my first day there, in August 2001, I looked up at the beautiful blue skies and asked my friend who had already been living there, "Where is all this pollution you told me about?"  He said, "I promise, today is the first day it's been like this.  I don't understand."   On the second day of blue skies, I actually started to seriously doubt him.  On the third straight day of blue skies I was convinced he'd exaggerated. But then we ran into a journalist that afternoon, and my friend asked her about it and she said, "Oh, the intercollegiate olympics are in town and the track events have been going on for the last three days and they shut down a number of power plants."  It was that simple.  Keep a good image.  Ruin the week for tens of thousands of poor people. The fourth day, and every day thereafter, the pollution, was back, hard core.  Then, in February 2002, when the air was worse than in summer and the sky essentially black from coal-burning heat, President Bush came to town for two days. Presto: perfect blue skies for those two days, and, I presume, no power for thousands without a voice.
So I have no doubt the running events at the Olympics will be fine, but it won't be fine for many many Beijingers.

These stories from China are amazing

Look at them go for status symbols as fast as they can afford them. Change what is a status symbol. Give people environmentally non-destructive ways to scratch their itch.

In the end, it all comes down to biodiversity. Poison Darts--Protecting the biodiversity of our world
Glamourous Lifestyle through Coal

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/asia-pacific/6968589.stm

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