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APEC's weak brew on climate

Pacific Rim countries vow to do ... very little

Posted by David Roberts at 5:35 PM on 20 Aug 2007

Throughout the year, members of the Asia-Pacific Economic Co-operation group (APEC) -- including the U.S., Japan, and Australia, among others -- have had a series of meetings. In early September, they will announce their grand plans, which, according to a leaked draft (PDF) obtained by the Sydney Morning Herald, contain "aspirational" greenhouse-gas emission targets. Here's what APEC will shoot for:

• Setting up a Network for Energy Technology to promote collaboration on research on clean coal, nuclear power and renewable energy such as solar and wind power;
• A non-binding, unenforceable 25 per cent reduction in energy intensity (energy consumption per unit of GDP) by 2030;
• Agreement on the importance of preserving and managing forests as "carbon sinks", and
• Agreement to encourage investment in renewable energy and develop international standards for sustainable biofuels to spur on alternative fuels.

Color me unimpressed. This guy's got it about right:

"This is a 'Made in the USA' declaration, covered in Australian coal dust," Ben Pearson, of Greenpeace, told the Herald. "It's Bush and Howard trying to look good for elections but actually doing nothing."

Hey you Math Wizards

Ok here is your math problem (been too long since I was in school):
25% reduction in energy consumption per unit of GDP by 2030
plus
3% annual growth of GDP
Equals how much growth in total energy consumption?  

I am doing a wild assed guess here, but wouldn't a 3% annual growth of GDP just about double the size of GDP by 2030?  So, wouldn't this mean about a 75% increase in energy consumption?  

Jesus, are we going to be living with Bush's legacy until 2030?

Your math is fine

Justlou, your ballpark math is just fine.  3% per year increase doubles the base amount in about 24 years, so even a 100% increase in carbon intensity (getting twice as much economic activity per unit of carbon emitted), if coupled with just 3% growth puts you no better off than today after 24 years -- a mere 25% increase leaves you screwed royally.

The 5% Project
Translation:"Do Nothing"

At some point Climate Change will destroy some first world nation to such an extent that the populace will leave their TV's and look for a scapegoat. At that time I can only hope that some of the political and economic "powers that be" are available for necktie parties. Australia is the primary candidate for this kind of catastrophe.

Essentially the governments of the US, Australia, China and India have decided to wait for the die-off to act. They have refused even token measures to reduce emissions growth.

In case anybody hasn't noticed the world's stock markets are slightly volatile as of late. Think how much worse that will be once investers realize that traditional "economic growth" is impossible due to peak oil, environmental damage and reduction in world grain supplies. Ooops.

Put the Carbon Back

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