More on the G8 climate statement

The U.S. outmaneuvered European leaders, yet again

Posted by David Roberts at 12:36 PM on 07 Jun 2007

All right, the more I read about this G8 climate agreement the more it becomes clear that the Bush administration completely outplayed the other developed countries on this. That, at least, they're good at.

Blair, Merkel, and Sarkozy all went into the summit staking their credibility on forcing an agreement: mandatory emissions cuts based on a shared target. The U.S. said: f*ck you. They begged. They pleaded. The U.S. repeated: f*ck you.

Meanwhile, the U.S. made a canny counter-proposal: a series of new talks, including China and India, to stretch out 18 months and produce "aspirational goals." Obviously it's toothless, but it did offer European leaders the chance to save some face and claim victory. It had the desired effect of dividing them and diluting the pressure on Bush. Blair, who is desperately casting about for a legacy other than the Iraq War, was quick to declare Bush's tepid offer a breakthrough. Meanwhile, Sarkozy, who's the new kid on the block and knows that Bush needs him as much as he needs Bush, noted dryly that the U.S. needs "to make another effort."

So after some intense lobbying, this is how far the U.S. was willing to move: it agreed to "seriously consider" the other developed countries' target of 50% cuts by 2050. Having said unambiguously that it will not accept any hard targets, what reason is there to think the answer will change after serious consideration? It also agreed that climate negotiations should continue under UN auspices (strange world where this is a concession).

In exchange, the Euro leaders dropped their demands for hard targets, endorsed Bush's toothless aspirational talks, and declared a "huge success." This is obviously making the best of a bad situation, returning to their expectant publics with something rather than nothing. But make no mistake: other than a vague acknowledgment of the problem and the need to cut some emissions, at some point, somehow, the U.S. basically gave the rest of the world the finger yet again.

The most revealing line I've read about it comes about halfway through this NYT piece:

When Mr. Bush turned to [Merkel] and said he has "a strong desire to work with you" on the issue, the chancellor pursed her lips.

I bet.

Here's the section on climate change from the G8 declaration (PDF):

We are therefore committed to taking strong and early action to tackle climate change in order to stabilize greenhouse gas concentrations at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system.

Taking into account the scientific knowledge as represented in the recent (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) reports, global greenhouse gas emissions must stop rising, followed by substantial global emission reductions.

In setting a global goal for emissions reductions in the process we have agreed today involving all major emitters, we will consider seriously the decisions made by the European Union, Canada and Japan which include at least a halving of global emissions by 2050.

For story: More on the G8 climate statement
6 Comments | Post a Comment

Poor Angela!

There she is, sitting between W. and Vladimir (I call him Vladimir). One wonders if she is asking Vladimir to stand up, walk behind her and massage her shoulders.

It is well-known that he speaks very good German -- but that is ironic, because he learned German while he was working in the KGB office in East Berlin. Every time he opens his mouth and speaks in German, no doubt there are people in the West with long memories who shudder ...

As for the substance of the agreement, and the negotiations leading up to it, there was some conservative commentator on the NewsHour last night, who seemed quite pleased with the outcome, and who made the point that the Europeans are "process-oriented" and the Americans are "results-oriented." That went right over my head. My guess is that it has something to do with Merkel's satisfaction that at least the UN has been accepted by the US as the formal context in which these (apparently toothless, but whatever) discussions are supposed to take place.

I am disappointed with the relative reticence of Nicolas Sarkozy. It seems that had he joined forces with Merkel in a more forceful way, they could have accomplished something more substantial. None of the other leaders was in such a position of strength: Putin could not be distracted from his Third Reich/Cold War tactic; Prodi and Abe are politically weak at home; Blair is so negligible that one wonders why they even bothered to invite him; and Harper is as much W.'s lapdog as Blair ever was. But Sarkozy could have done more, if he were really committed to the issue. Instead, he seems to have played this cute game of not wanting to be seen as a clear opponent of the US just yet, on the one hand, and trying to win or maintain the approval of French greens, on the other, by expressing criticism and doubt after the statement was released.

Back to Vladimir: He and W. seem to have made up, by agreeing to have the missile defense system (which anyway no one believes really works) put in Azerbaijan. Wow!, what a twist! Who saw that coming?! But a good thing it is, no?, just in time for the Bush family picnic. I hope Vladimir shows up wearing a prisoner's overall, printed with the words "Property of Guantanamo Naval Base," as a sort of joke.

Chickens deserve our true friendship! So do fish! So do other sentient beings! Let us learn to be kind.

by caniscandida at 1:38 PM on 07 Jun 2007

A note from the "old" side of the pond

One of Merkels chief climate advisers had the following interpretation, according to the Int. Herald Tribune.
"The United States is now on a bandwagon they cannot stop," said Hans Joachim Schellnhuber, a German expert on climate change who is Merkel's chief adviser on climate policy. "That is more than I expected. In a way, climate common sense prevailed at the last minute."

by onkl at 2:09 PM on 07 Jun 2007

But onkl,

I think everyone can take it for granted that the next U.S. president is going to take global warming seriously. In that sense, the bandwagon is already rolling -- the public is on it, the states are on it, etc. The only real question at issue at the G8 was whether Bush would be able to run out the clock on his own tenure without doing anything, and in that he succeeded.

grist.org

by David Roberts at 2:35 PM on 07 Jun 2007

Certainty of strategy

You'r quite correct, Bush has some reason to celebrate. However, the goal of the process is not "Making Bush unhappy", that should be considered to be collateral damage. The importance of these statements is a growth in confidence about the future US policy, the growing certainty that the US will indeed collaborate (even if only halfhearted). This might help and influence policymakers creating new rules and business facing new investment right now allready. Or, by example, the knowledge that the US is on a train with only a very remote chance of jumping off, means that wind energy project currently undertaken see an increase in expected future revenue.

This aside, I do agree: it certainly could have ben better.

by onkl at 4:59 AM on 08 Jun 2007
[ Parent ]

Just one question:

Is it 2009 yet?

by amnoelle at 11:05 AM on 08 Jun 2007

Politicians Always 2 Steps Behind...

...great, just as they come to an agreement to "stop global warming" people in the real world are discovering how great it is!

http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/nationworld/2003739 ...

Up north, climate change receives a warm welcome

QAQORTOQ, Greenland -- The biggest island in the world is wind-raked, gripped by ice over four-fifths of its land, prowled by polar bears, and its coastlines are choked by drifting icebergs and sea ice. Many of its 56,000 people, who live on the fringes of its giant ice cap, see the effects of global warming -- and cheer it on.

by jabailo at 11:31 AM on 08 Jun 2007

ADVERTISING POLICY

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