Or doesn't.

Victual Reality

Anyway...

Has it occurred to anyone that they might want to look into what Jeroen van der Veer and/or Royal Dutch Shell are investing in?  Perhaps energy-efficient building products, energy-efficient lighting, strong yet light materials for autos and planes?

Perhaps they saw the writing on the wall, invested in other areas, and are ready to wean themselves from oil. One can dream. This might be a very good indication that the Titanic is no longer aimed directly toward the iceberg.

hee hee hee

This is true to a point.  It's often claimed that the demand for energy is price-inelastic (in the developed world), but I'm not sure I believe that, and I don't think we've had a good empirical test yet to see if it's true.

But the thing you have to remember is that, by the time the price gets high enough for Joe SUV American to notice and change his behavior, the world price of oil has gotten so high that all of Africa has gone dark and is starving.  Literally.

This isn't just about preserving our way of life and our creature comforts.  It's also about the impact our lifestyles have on the rest of the world.

This is so full of half-truths and omissions that I see it as "not even wrong."  Even the choice of "energy efficiency" is misleading - what we need and will have, like it or not, is energy "conservation" - not using energy.

  No mention of peaking of any fossil fuels, all of which will happen this century, oil now and gas very soon.  No mention of the need to curtail coal to prevent nasty global warming surprises, which could happen anyway.  No mention of extraction rates, and that's all that really counts - reserves don't mean fuckall.  Just a rant against renewables, which will be all we have in the long run!  The dude's a fossilized slimeball & oughta be converted to bio-diesel.

tooj

Up the line a bit,Wiscidea writes "perhaps they saw the writing on the wall--"and so on.I swear it has not been two days ago I was thinking of the very words and wondering how many of the young generation know where it comes from.I told my wife the sure way to know in any case would be if they said "saw the (hand)writing"or "could read the (hand)writing".Because,after all,everybody could see the writing.That wasn't the problem.The problem was that nobody could read it.(Except Daniel of course)

I do hope Wiscidea takes this in the spirit it is intended and that everyone else forgives me for goofing off.

Energy conservation will be necessary, no doubt.  But the potential headroom on the efficiency side is enormous and not to be dismissed.

At any rate, complaining that an oil-company exec is supporting a demand-side solution and not using precisely the right terminology is... out of touch?

However, if he says, that oil is abiotic, or at least plentiful, then ....

Oh, well, I guess he can shut up for a few more years, vest, and then say whatever he wants.

Texeme.Construct(function(x)=Participation(x))

Delivering Technology: The Key Role of International Energy Companies

by Jeroen van der Veer
Chief Executive
Royal Dutch Shell p.l.c.

. . .

I don't believe the world is running out of energy. Nor do I believe that - taking unconventional resources into account - we are even close to "peak oil." Nor that we must choose between economic development and action on climate.

. . .

What Do We Need to Do?

We need to do three things:

• make the most of fossil resources
  
• develop alternative forms of energy
  
• improve energy efficiency

Because of their efficiency and abundance, fossil fuels will remain at the heart of our energy system. We need to make the most of them, which must include dealing with their carbon emissions.

The biggest impact would come from significantly increasing the amount of oil we recover from reservoirs, little more than a third on average at present. At Shell, we see considerable scope for this, but no simple solutions. It depends on sustained investment in extending knowledge and applying technology.

Continuing advances are helping us to:

• reduce geological uncertainties
  
• drill better-placed, more-productive and cheaper wells
  
• manage reservoir processes more efficiently
  
• enhance the recovery of stranded oil

"Smart" technology, which enables engineers to monitor and control reservoir processes remotely, could significantly boost recovery.

Enhanced oil recovery techniques, which use heat, gas or chemicals to make oil flow more easily, will be increasingly important. But these projects are costly, complex and technically demanding.

These techniques depend on experienced people who are able to understand the subsurface possibilities, choose the right tools and apply them effectively.

The industry is also learning how to find and develop hydrocarbons in more difficult geology and harsher environments. For example, at Shell we are using our deepwater experience from the Gulf of Mexico in places like Nigeria and Malaysia.

Consumption of liquefied natural gas could double over the next decade. But this also depends on technological, as well as commercial, innovation.

Gas-to-liquids (GTL) technology offers another way of getting gas to customers. Shell has been pursuing this for 25 years, developing our proprietary technology, gaining operational experience from our first plant in Malaysia and building markets. Our planned 140,000-barrel-a-day plant in Qatar is due to come into production around the end of the decade. We believe GTL will be increasingly important, providing high-quality fuels to help reduce transport emissions.

Our experience illustrates three things about developing energy technologies: It takes long-term commitment. Being integrated matters. And it opens further opportunities.

 Technological advances will also be important in refining, in particular in dealing with heavier and more acidic crudes and in meeting demand for light and clean products.

There are also very large unconventional resources: heavy oils, oil sands and shales, coal-bed methane and contaminated and tight gas.

And, of course, there is a lot of coal, particularly in countries like the United States and China.

. . .

 Shell is also testing an environmentally sensitive way of unlocking the very large potential of oil shale in Colorado, using electric heaters to gradually heat the rock formation and release light oil and gas.

Coal gasification offers a way of using coal more efficiently, cleanly and flexibly. The resulting syngas can fuel efficient combined-cycle power plants. It could also be used, with the same technology as GTL, to produce high-quality liquid fuels.

I believe the world will be able to rely on the efficiency and convenience of fossil energy for a long time to come.

Developing Carbon Solutions

How does this fit with the need to reduce carbon dioxide emissions?

I have a vision of green - or greener - fossil fuels with much of their carbon dioxide captured and sequestered either underground or in inert materials. I believe this is practical and could, certainly in the medium term, be cheaper, more convenient and more flexible than alternative energies. . . .

Oh well, it was a nice fantasy while it lasted.  A CEO of a major oil company pushing for meaningful efficiency such that it actually resulted in conservation of energy and other resources being pushed to their limits.  It's not exactly what he said, but it was fun to think for a moment it might be what he meant.

So long as you were pushing efficiency, everyone smiled because it meant using at least the same amount; when you started promoting conservation, then trouble started.

So, yes, it's more than a matter of picking the wrong word.  It's the wrong concept.  

The 5% Project

Small problem.  Global petroleum production will likely peak by the year 2025 (in my estimation).  If oil then begins to cost today's equivalent of $200, $300, or $400 a barrel, will energy demand really double?  

Let's see.  How many people in China, India, or even the U.S. will be able to afford those prices?  More to the point, will our planet be able to feed a population of 9 billion once fertilizer prices quadruple, and once 50% of the arable land now dedicated to food production is converted to the production of biofuels to support America's happy-motoring lifestyle?

Hmmm. Methinks efficiency and conservation will finally begin to take hold.  But not because of good will and progressive thinking.  Because it will be the only way our society will be able to survive.  The same reason far-flung suburbs are likely to shrivel and die.

Aren't they all basically just big statements that "We don't need energy effeciency"

Rather than being distractions, wouldn't it be more apt to call them diversions?

They aren't any better than other forms of energy.

It just happens that the hardware that uses them is much more energy effecient.

So it's not so much the energy that we are seeking, as it is the "ability" to use effecient hardware.

Exxon is the largest publicly held oil company, yet it's production puts it at par with Norway, the world's tenth largest oil producing country.

From now on when you talk about big oil talk about state-owned firms like Saudia Arabia, China, and Russia.  All of which dwarf the production of Exxon.