Peak coal, peak bees

Trends on an ever-shrinking planet

Posted by Erik Hoffner (Guest Contributor) at 2:24 PM on 08 May 2007

Read more about: energy | oil | biodiversity | water conflicts | coal

I was at Coop Power's excellent annual renewable energy summit in western Massachusetts recently. Richard Heinberg was there as a presenter. He discussed his well-regarded peak oil projections, and he then put that curve next to his peak uranium and peak coal projections. That visual drew gasps from the crowd -- especially the peak coal bit.

Sure we've got lots of coal, but its quality ain't what it used to be, and won't go as far. Check his data. This got me thinking of all the indexes we might put forward to track important trends on this ever-shrinking planet.

The next one I'd promote, given our perilous reliance on the mobile hives that are driven from farm to farm to pollinate our crops, plus this winter's mysterious honeybee population crash, would have to be peak bees. And how about peak freshwater. What would you propose?

For story: Peak coal, peak bees
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Please stop promoting the peak coal idea, Erik

Peak bees and peak water may be something to worry about, I'll grant you, but world coal production (in the sense of obtaining energy from it) will peak within the next few decades only because of environmental restrictions, not because it is physically running out or because it is becoming too expensive relative to other energy sources.

David already posted something on peak coal, and I discussed the issue at length here and here. If future coal use is NOT accompanied by carbon sequestration, then you should be fearing the consequences of continued coal use, not of a peaking.

These are only my personal opinions.

by Ron Steenblik at 2:38 PM on 08 May 2007

How about some positive peaks?

peak autos
peak subsidies
(dare I say it?) peak population
peak number of industry shills occupying top-level positions in US government departments

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by Corey McKrill at 3:36 PM on 08 May 2007

Peak water

I have a recent post on sustainable freshwater.

by Gar Lipow at 3:43 PM on 08 May 2007

peek-a-boo bees, water, et cetera

I certainly understand the temptation to extend the peak oil analogy to other resources, but I'm not convinced it is appropriate. Peak oil is peak oil because there is a limited amount in existence, or at least Nature isn't making it as fast as we consume it. Furthermore, we actually burn it. When it is gone, it is gone forever, or at least until plants fix it again and are buried under miles of sediment.

Bees on the other hand, are not necessarily reaching a peak. Water is not necessarily reaching a peak. There are still a few bees around and we can look into ways of preserving what we have and rebuilding the population. Water can be managed in order to actually increase the supply of clean fresh water.

What is peaking, then? Hmmm... how about agricultural land? There is only so much land that can be brought under cultvation. We're going to have to set aside at least a little for other ecosystem services.

by wiscidea at 3:54 PM on 08 May 2007

Facts first, then policy

What is disturbing about the German coal study is that it puts into question the assumption of abundant cheap coal. Government, industry and environmentalists are all operating from this assumption.

Summary and links to original study: Peak coal by 2025 say researchers

The first item of business to get a better hold on what the facts are. How can we begin to talk about policy issues, such as carbon sequestration, if we are clueless about supplies?

Similarly with oil. The U.S. Government Accountability Office in a February report, pointed out that predictions of a peak in oil production range from now to 2040. In the GAO's measured language, they said that it would be good to have better analyses for such a key resource.

I'm not saying we should mute our environmental convictions. Rather, that we should understand the importance of basing our arguments on the best information possible - and know when the data are suspect.

"Reality is that which, when you stop believing in it, doesn't go away."
- Philip K. Dick (the late science fiction writer)

Bart
Energy Bulletin

by Bart Anderson at 4:07 PM on 08 May 2007

Good ones, Corey

Yep, peak autos is a priority, and peak shills. And this was the point - having a sense of humor about all of this. I don't know if coal is going to peak any more than the next guy (admit it Ron). Or uranium. And while I'm certain that bees and water are renewable resources, Grey Falcon, your peak farmland proposal is sobering and poignant. I'd like to add another I thought of afterward: peak pavement. For every reason.

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by Erik Hoffner at 5:31 PM on 08 May 2007

Peak corn

I'm greatly hoping that peak corn will be soon. Do we really need to keep turning fossil fuels and topsoil into childhood (and adulthood) obesity, diabetes and heart disease? Not to mention the impending biofuels debacle.

No, friends, yellow is not the new green. It may be the new black, but not the new green.

Anyway, there are better things to do with all that acreage.

by Dawn Pillsbury at 11:13 PM on 08 May 2007

I tend to agree with Wiscidea

The idea of peak oil has some explanatory value, if one takes it as driven by geology and economics. But most of the other "peak things" relate to scenarios that take many other factors into account. So, yes, if there is a big push for nuclear power or renewable-based power, it will tend to be at the expense of coal. But how has the notion of "peak coal" helped explain that?

I am not saying I can predict when coal production were to peak. But if geology and extraction costs were the only variables considered, I would be willing to bet that it would occur later than suggested in the Energy Watch Group study. (For one, more coal would be impounded from the probable to the proven categories.) When conventional coal production may actually peak will be determined more likely by policies, especially land-use constraints and similar environmental policies, and in that regard the Energy Watch Group's prediction for peaking in 2025 may not be wrong. Of course, as I said, though underground and surface-mined coal production might start declining, there would remain a large potential for coal-bed methane extraction and in-situ coal gasification (not that I am advocating these!).

These are only my personal opinions.

by Ron Steenblik at 3:11 AM on 09 May 2007

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