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On energy dependencies

The weather will matter more and more

Posted by Ron Steenblik (Guest Contributor) at 12:47 PM on 15 May 2007

Read more about: energy | biofuels | ethanol

Energy dependence seems to be the topic of the day, or at least the last two days. David Roberts posted a link yesterday to an eye-opening article about the surge of interest among the Amish of Ohio for solar PV panels. I had always assumed, wrongly, that the Amish eschewed electricity, period. Actually, they just don't like depending on the outside world.

Meanwhile, renewed violence in Nigeria, a major petroleum producer, is giving oil markets the jitters.

So is home-produced energy always better?

That is certainly a perennial argument made by proponents of biofuels. Yet as the share of corn for ethanol grows (27 percent of this year's U.S. crop), the nation's fuel supply will be increasingly subject to the vagaries of the weather. Here's a foretaste from the DTN Ethanol Center:

Corn has had a couple of wild-and-crazy weeks [on the Chicago Board of Trade], first rallying on planting delays and then collapsing on more planting progress than expected. Corn ran up over 30 cents and then fell over 40 cents. The decline also came into the bullish teeth of an extensive flooding problem in the Western Corn Belt. It is estimated by elevator sources that northwest Iowa will have to be 20 percent re-planted and southwest Iowa has been behind schedule right along. Flooding is also evident in Missouri, Nebraska and South Dakota. The Toledo, Ohio, area is also flooded and elevator sources there say 10 percent of the corn will need to be replanted. [Emphasis added.]

It is always salutary to be reminded of the fact that crops yields are affected by factors largely beyond human control: precipitation and temperature. Rutgers University researchers James Eaves and Stephan Eaves made this point in a paper they released earlier this year: because of weather-induced corn yield fluctuations, the supply of ethanol produced from corn is not necessarily less inherently risky than the supply of oil.

That is not, of course to say that there aren't plenty of good reasons to reduce consumption of petroleum products. But the various alternatives are not all less prone to disruption.

more FUD on alternative fuels

You can always buy oil on the spot market when ethanol is short.  You can't do the reverse.

Weather and Fuel Farming


In regions where droughts occur, eucalyptus are known to be at high risk of catching fire.

The southeast U.S. is currently in the midst of such a drought.

Florida is burning NOW.

Eucalyptus plantations have been documented to deplete ground water and cause or exacerbate drought situations.

Nevertheless ArborGen is laying the groundwork for massive plantations of non-native eucalyptus trees genetically engineered to be cold tolerant for biofuels and paper pulp.

These eucalyptus trees have been engineered for other traits which ArborGen refuses to reveal.  News articles and reports indicate these traits likely include reduced lignin content and the ability to kill insects.

ArborGen seeks approval from the USDA to allow their genetically engineered eucalyptus trees to flower and produce seeds.  There has been no consideration as to what happens if these seeds escape into native ecosystems.  

This is an area heavily impacted by severe storms, including tornadoes and hurricanes--seeds from these trees could travel for hundreds of miles.

Once this GE tree flowering and seed production is allowed, it will be easier for APHIS to approve outdoor field trial releases of other GE trees, such as poplars and pines for flowering and seed production.  This could spell disaster for our native forests

APHIS is accepting comments on ArborGen's proposal until May 21.

You can find how to write APHIS and learn more about this insane proposal here:

National Effort Launched to Stop Genetically Engineered Eucalyptus Plantations in US Southeast
http://www.organicconsumers.org/articles/article_5120.cfm ...

Also on this issue: The Center for Food Safety ~
http://ga3.org/campaign/GE_Trees/ide6573ro3e8wb7?
ge=20040818162316710

Remind me

Why would we even want to do Ethanol?
http://greyfalcon.net/ethanol2
http://greyfalcon.net/ethanol3
http://greyfalcon.net/ethanol4
http://greyfalcon.net/ethanol5
http://greyfalcon.net/ethanol6
http://greyfalcon.net/ethanol7

What benefit are we supposed to be gaining from it?

  1. Lowering the price of gas?
  2. Cut CO2 emmisions?
  3. Lower air pollutants?

Well it certainly isn't doing any of that.

And whats worse, we're also getting billions of dollars taxed away each year by supporting it.
(0.51 cents/gallon)

Only good way to reduce our demand for foreign oil. Is to reduce our demand for oil.
And the only practical way to do that is by building cars that need less oil.
http://greyfalcon.net/plugins

-David Ahlport

Better gas mileage.

I not long ago filled up with half 85% ethanol and half normal gasoline.  

Got better mileage.  

However, I was less worried about mileage than I was worried about the unintended consequences of doing what I did (or going with a full tank of 85% ethanol).  I was mostly worried about higher ignition temperatures damaging my 4 cylinder 1999 engine.   But I took the risk.

Maybe the Marvel Mystery Oil helped so my engine didn't catch fire. Maybe it was the will of the gods. Maybe it was something else.

Regardless, I have not done it since.

Heh

Well I would have been more worried about the E85 eating at your rubber seals.

If you blew a fuel line your car would be a big inferno.

-David Ahlport

By the way

People are aware that Ethanol and MBTE are no longer required to be mixed in gasoline, right?

http://www.epa.gov/otaq/regs/fuels/rfg/420f06035.htm

-David Ahlport

Let's focus on the more important forms of energy

To try and keep the topic from veering again into that perennial favorite, "how do we keep all the shiny cars going round and round," I thought I'd share something I thought was interesting about a far more critical form of energy, electricity.

Remember, according to one of the smart guys at RealClimate.org, we don't have enough oil and natural gas to drive to double atmospheric CO2 levels--we run out first.  But we have MORE than enough coal to quadruple (or more) the original 280 ppm CO2.

So, if we're thinking about energy dependency, let's worry about getting off the fuel that's going to kill us first, and that would be coal.  And getting off coal means dealing with the way we use electricity.

Phillip Schewe's book "The Grid" (at p. 252) cites the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI) for the proposition that the minimum level of electrification needed for a society to begin to surmount poverty is 1,000 kWh annually per person.  Also says that Americans, on average, use about 13,000 kWh.

What occurred to me when I read that was that, given that we already are wealthy and do not have past energy deficits to deal with, that, with some intelligence and effort, it should be possible to reduce our demands for electricity for every person in this country to that 1,000 kWh/person-year level--meaning that each person, instead of being responsible for burning 13,000 pounds of coal to be burnt (we use coal for about half our power nationally, and it's roughly 2 pounds coal per kWh), we would only be calling for 1,000 kWh annually, or 85 kWh per person per month.

If we reduced our electric demand to about 8% (1/13) of current, we would not have to burn any coal at all, nor would we need to stress over whether to run nukes.  In fact, we wouldn't have to have any fossil fuel for electric at all--hydro accounts for about 8% of the grid supply now.  Of course, it's not all in the right place, but there are resource strengths in evergy region that would allow locally produced electricity to shoulder the load without breaking if we would limit ourselves to this goal.

That would mean that we'd actually attain energy independence, at least for electric power.  But electricity will get you through times of no liquid fuels far better than liquid fuels will get you through times of no electricity.

So how about we take all the vast amounts of human energy that we're devoting to trying to keep the "insolent chariots" running around, combine it with the energy being spent on "$100" laptops, and devote all that energy and intelligence to the far more important and useful problem:  making 1,000 kWh per person per year sufficient for a decent life for all.

The 5% Project

True enough

I agree that we need to green the grid, but perhaps the best way to get the raw materials we need to do that are the same ones that would be involved in making better electric cars.

In particular high density, cheap, batteries with long cycle lives.
^^^ To store renewable electricity.

And high torque effecient electric motors
^^^ Ideal for pumped storage, and geothermal drilling

But overall the idea being, by putting both the cars and the grid into one unified problem we only have to invest infrastructure resources in one area.

But more fundamentally it brings the concept front-and-center to the general public that
"the only way these cars are going to get greener is if the grid gets greener."

_

Largely though we should cut down on the Oil first, since if we don't, from a more functional standpoint then the next step would be shifting to liquified coal.

And getting stuck with the option of coal or more coal wouldn't be such a good one.

By lowering our Oil usage rate now, it ensures that we can continue to use Oil for backup electricity for our cars ;D

-David Ahlport

JMG

I like your target of 1000 kWh per person per year as a starting point for discussion. Who knows if it is achievable, but at least it provides a basis for looking at how we use electricity.

I think one needs to separate consumption for heating and cooking from other consumption (e.g., lighting, clothes drying, computers), however. Somebody living in a home in an area with a mild climate (e.g., San Diego) with a gas cooker, gas-heated hot water, and gas heating is going to achieve that target a lot easier than somebody stuck in an all-electric home where the summers are hot summers and the winters cold.

These are only my personal opinions.

Yes, so ....

that's why we use a 1000 kWh/person-year average -- and to attain that, we need the mild climate types to go far below that, while we work like mad to figure out how to optimize the energy use/carbon-production balance from the existing and new housing stock in every region.

People in more extreme climates have one set of challenges; people in milder ones have a different set--like parting with their ginormous plasma screen TVs.  

We may well find that people in the more extreme climates can reduce their electric use more dramatically than the people who already don't use electricity for heating, hot water, and cooking.   They might only be doing 8,000 a year, but it's all lifestyle for them; most people are a lot more invested in their lifestyle than they are in their furnaces--they pretty much don't give a rip about what fuel they're using, so long as there's heat.

The 5% Project

They them their you your we us our I me mine

Just do it.  I had to look, our electric bill is 2500 kWh/year/person in an all electric house in Seattle climate.  We could cut that in half.  There is no need for coal.

Perhaps not by the US EPA

But individual states in the US can (and do) still have their own rules.  For example, I was in New Jersey about a month ago, and they still have 15% ethanol fuel.  I'm sure California does also, etc.

Ethanol fuel

I would like to invite all audience to visit a newly lounched site dedicated to biofuels, ethanol and climate issues. Potential writers are wellcome to write to editors@ethanol-news.de
http://www.ethanol-news.de

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