Get ready for the summer driving season

Build your stockpile of gas now!

Posted by Payton Chung (Guest Contributor) at 2:28 PM on 27 Apr 2007

Read more about: green living | energy | cars | fossil fuels

Gasoline supplies right now are plumbing historic lows, just as May and the "summer driving season" are about to roll around. This fact has the industry types at the WSJ's Energy Roundup abuzz with predictions of $4/gallon gasoline, should the inevitable disruption (refinery fire, hurricane, Iran war) occur. As in years past, areas with higher cost gasoline, mostly the blue states along the oceans and Great Lakes, will see the highest prices.

Some hope that record margins (known as "crack spread," heh heh) will lead refineries to crank up gas production, but in any case, there's dangerously little slack in America's dangerously-tight gasoline supply chain. Blogger Robert Rapier points out that gasoline supplies right now are lower than they've ever been (at least since current records began, in 1991), besides a few Labor Day weekends when supplies are drawn down after all that summer driving.

I never quite understood the concept of a "summer driving season," anyways. Why waste a glorious summer day cooped up inside a car stuck in traffic? This summer, let's all escape gloomy gas prices and have a Summer Walking Season instead.

For story: Get ready for the summer driving season
15 Comments | Post a Comment

But, but, CERA says there's LOTs of oil.......

".... Cambridge Energy Research Associates (CERA) finds that the remaining global oil resource base is actually 3.74 trillion barrels -- three times as large as the 1.2 trillion barrels estimated by the theory's proponents -- and that the "peak oil" argument is based on faulty analysis which could, if accepted, distort critical policy and investment decisions and cloud the debate over the energy future."- http://tinyurl.com/y8vmfr

So if these guys are right because with all the oil we have PLUS ethanol and biodiesel we should be sitting fat and happy in energy reserves. OR....

The guys at http://www.theoildrum.com/ are right and we're going down the Oldavia theory (http://tinyurl.com/acvg8) slope to the post peak oil nastiness. It's a good thing that we can rely on a stable climate to feed us and a rational financial system to facilitate postive changes.

or maybe not....

Put the Carbon Back

by Pangolin at 2:55 PM on 27 Apr 2007

The first sign of peak oil

will be erratic prices that go up and down in short cycles but creep ever upward like a ten year stock market graph. It looks like we are there.

In the end, it all comes down to biodiversity. Poison Darts--Protecting the biodiversity of our world

by biodiversivist at 3:24 PM on 27 Apr 2007

someone is going to burn the oil

This not my position, but was suggested by someone I know...

Someone, somewhere in the world, is going the burn through gasoline like there is no tomorrow until it becomes prohibitively expensive. If an "environmentalist" avoids using it, the reduced demand will only make gasoline cheaper for those who don't care. They will buy and burn even more. Since it is inevitable that all that CO2 will be released by someone, we all might as well drive as much as we want to. On the bright side, the faster we use it up, the sooner our civilization will have to adapt to a life without oil. The sooner we drive the price up -- due to scarcity -- the sooner alternative energy becomes economically viable. Indeed, the faster we use it up, the more likely that OUR generation will have to live with the consequences.

Again, this is not my position.

Please discuss. I'll check in Monday to view your opinions.

by wiscidea at 4:34 PM on 27 Apr 2007

thelma and louise impulse

On the bright side, the faster we use it up, the sooner our civilization will have to adapt to a life without oil.

But that's not a bright side. Using up oil as fast as possible is the exact opposite of adapting to a life without oil. The pace of change makes a big difference. If we adapt gradually, we may have the time, money and energy to develop new standards, new technologies and new patterns of living. On the other hand, if we merrily continue on our wasteful path with no preparation, we will drop off a cliff and most of Kunstler's predictions will likely come true.

Ped Shed Blog

by Laurence Aurbach at 5:19 PM on 27 Apr 2007

Crude reserves vs. gasoline

Tar sands in Venezuela and Alberta, unproven reserves off the Taiwanese coast, biodiesel, ethanol, fuel cells, and umpteen GM hybrid cars aren't going to help one bit in August 2007. It takes months to get from oil well to gas pump, and right now the really big bottleneck is that the USA is short on refining capacity, not oil extraction. Lack of spare refining capacity, not lack of crude, was behind most of the recent runups in gas prices.

We don't have enough refineries because, well, I'll note that most of our existing refineries are in the part of Texas and Louisiana lovingly called "cancer alley."

I'm not particularly looking forward to $4/gallon gas -- well, actually, I am, but I don't want to hear the TV pundits, newspaper headlines, and windbag politicians all loudly whining about it 24/7, which they inevitably will.

by Payton Chung at 10:55 PM on 27 Apr 2007

decades

I'm with BioD, though I think the "peak oil" timescale will be long. Catastrophists who yearn for sudden and dramatic outcomes will be disappointed.

I still like the book "A Thousand Barrels A Second" for its description of the global oil supply chains, their sheer size and production. As we peak through one sort of oil or another (first land-based light sweet crude, then sours, offshores, etc.) we'll see the spiky climb BioD describes.

Those of us already on the road to lower CO2 emissions will probably weather that OK. We've got bicycles and efficient little cars.

And, I guarantee, a $4 summer will start to make more folks look like us.

by odograph at 8:05 AM on 28 Apr 2007

I'm with Odo

If we hit $4 a gallon this summer Prius sales will hit record highs (inventories are ready for it). Toyota is now number 1 and are way out in front. And if the 2008 Prius really gets 90 MPG (only with a plug-in me thinks) then we may see a tipping point for car technology and high gas mileage.

In the end, it all comes down to biodiversity. Poison Darts--Protecting the biodiversity of our world

by biodiversivist at 8:45 AM on 28 Apr 2007

A Nickel Here; A Dime There

But 3% of the world still controls 84% percent of all resources.

Still -- save your pennies kids. That's what Grist tells you to do.

J. Bailo Participant Texeme.Construct()

by jabailo at 8:56 AM on 28 Apr 2007

CO2

Regardless of whether you think of CO2 as a pollutant, you can think of it as a measure of economic power, and "control of resources."

If China passes us in CO2 as is predicted, what happens to old rubrics of who controls the resources?

by odograph at 9:05 AM on 28 Apr 2007

Amazon.com

Those of us already on the road to lower CO2 emissions will probably weather that OK. We've got bicycles and efficient little cars.

Something else we've got...The Internet!

Seriously, why are we still doing all this driving anyway. You know how I save energy -- by trying not to drive all all, and using an efficient UPS or other delivery truck to bring in my goods to me instead of the other way around.

J. Bailo Participant Texeme.Construct()

by jabailo at 9:17 AM on 28 Apr 2007

I'm with Jabailo!

Internet shopping and delivery beats driving to a local store, and definitely shreds driving around and comparing products across town.

Hey, there is actually an old Grist article about this:

http://www.grist.org/comments/soapbox/2000/01/24/yahoo/

by odograph at 9:23 AM on 28 Apr 2007

Someone gets it right...

There's a neat how to save the world series running on Foreign Policy magazine right now. One that bought my eye is by Howard Gardner.

http://www.foreignpolicy.com/story/cms.php?story_id=3787

The accumulation and cross-generational transmission of wealth in the United States has gone way too far. When a young hedge-fund manager can take home a sum reminiscent of the gross national product of a small country, something is askew. When a self-made entrepreneur can accumulate enough money to, in effect, purchase that country, something is totally out of whack. It’s impossible to deny that market fundamentalism has gone too far.

My comments on Gardner's article:
http://www.foreignpolicy.com/resources/forum/viewtopic.ph ...

I think that it runs a similar line as my societal concept of The Guillotine.
http://www.you-read-it-here-first.com/viewtopic.php?p=763 ...

J. Bailo Participant Texeme.Construct()

by jabailo at 9:44 AM on 28 Apr 2007
[ Parent ]

I'm getting tired of the spam.

hey, jabailo! Take your stupid t-shirts and your flat-earth naysaying somewhere else. It's really getting annoying and your posts can't even stay on topic.

Put the Carbon Back

by Pangolin at 10:40 AM on 28 Apr 2007
[ Parent ]

Pangolin Violates Posting Rules

Do not direct personal attacks at a poster or fellow commenter. Substance, people. Substance.

http://gristmill.grist.org/special/posting_rules

J. Bailo Participant Texeme.Construct()

by jabailo at 10:50 AM on 28 Apr 2007
[ Parent ]

Or these rules:

Don't be a troll. (Troll: Commenter who makes outrageous or provocative statements purely in order to derail discussion.) You know who you are.
No spam, no solicitation, no links to porn, no internet detritus of similar ilk.

by cce at 7:09 PM on 28 Apr 2007

ADVERTISING POLICY

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