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Sustainability in world politics, continued

On Revkin's piece on poverty and climate change impacts

Posted by John McGrath (Guest Contributor) at 12:12 PM on 02 Apr 2007

(A topic I return to every once in a while. See here and here.)

The link that Jason posted Sunday deserves a closer look, if you missed it over the weekend. Revkin has written an excellent, if somewhat depressing, piece on the fact that while climate change is overwhelmingly the responsibility of the world's rich nations, the nations that suffer most will be the world's poorest.

It also reminds me of something else I heard Tim Flannery say last week: whatever else we know about climate change, we know that it will stress nations, and stressed nations sometimes do horrible things. The solution to climate change must therefore necessarily be a multilateral one.

You could sum up the great liberal project of the 20th century with the first words from the UN Charter:

We the peoples of the United Nations determined to save succeeding generations from the scourge of war, which twice in our lifetime has brought untold sorrow to mankind ...

I can think of only one other document that uses its text to establish its own context so clearly.* Those who gathered in San Francisco in June 1945 were keenly aware of the horrors that occur when the international system meets a crisis it cannot solve without violence -- World War II had not ended yet. The idea was to create a body that could resolve the international disagreements that lead to war before they get to that point. It was to resolve the stresses that create war.

This clearly applies to the UN, but it's just as true for the other multilateral bodies that were created around the same time -- the IMF, the World Bank, and the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT, later the WTO). After all, at the time the commonly-held explanation for the rise of fascism in Europe was partly economic: the stresses of the Great Depression and the Treaty of Versailles had created the economic chaos and poverty that opened the doors for the Nazis. In order to preserve global security, it was recognized that the world needed institutions that could keep the global economy on an even keel.

Those institutions -- especially the IMF and World Bank -- get a lot of criticism for their behavior in the developing world, well-deserved in my view, but there's no denying the original motivating impulse. The New Deal generation was terrified that World War III wasn't that far off, and were desperately trying to craft a world order that would maintain security and promote development.

Today, the earth's climate doesn't have a body as powerful as the World Bank trying to protect it. We don't have a Security Council capable of making international climate law enforceable at the International Court of Justice in the Hague. We don't even have the level of agreement necessary to work towards that kind of a body.

But it's clear, in this telling of the story, that America dramatically broke with it's history as the builder of international security when the U.S. Senate refused to ratify Kyoto. Kyoto was, as much as the Bretton Woods agreements or the UN Charter, an attempt to solve global stress before chaos and inequality lead to war. Exaggeration? Hardly:

"We have a message here to tell these countries, that you are causing aggression to us by causing global warming," President Yoweri Museveni of Uganda said at the African Union summit in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, in February. "Alaska will probably become good for agriculture, Siberia will probably become good for agriculture, but where does that leave Africa?"

If you answer Mr. Museveni's question with the words "poor, thirsty, and hungry," congratulations: You've successfully predicted the future, unless we can convince the world's great powers to change direction. If you're an American voter reading this, yes, you have a greater obligation than the citizens of Denmark or Canada. But you also have the most opportunity to affect positive change in the world. Use it.

-----

* The other document whose text clearly tells us about it's own context? That would be the 1988 Toronto Conference declaration which reads "humanity is conducting an unintended, uncontrolled, globally pervasive experiment whose ultimate consequences could be second only to a global nuclear war." The document's reference to global nuclear war marks it as an artifact of the Cold War. But just one year later the Berlin Wall fell and just before Christmas of 1989, the Cold War was declared over by the U.S. and the USSR.

As the threat of nuclear war receded, you would think that a rational species would have turned its focus on the second-biggest threat to its survival. Instead, we've spent the last 20 years regressing from the clear language of Toronto, 1988. Even today, with climate change as one of the hottest of hot topics in politics, economics, and even celebrity news, America still hasn't returned to the environmental high-water mark of ... the Reagan era.

Good God. Now I'm really depressed.

Great post, John

I keep meaning to think and write more about the international political and moral questions raised by climate change. Global warming is the make-or-break issue for the international order: are we going to come together and renew our commitment to shared peace and prosperity, or are we going to atomize and fight it out for the remaining resources?

Obviously Bush has pushed as hard as he can in the latter direction, but I almost think his overreach will send us back the other way. The next president has an historic opportunity, that's for sure.

grist.org

Slow-motion nuclear war

I've found it very useful in talking to people to compare the threat of nuclear war with the threat of climate change. Most people really seem to "get it". It's like this:

With nuclear war, that disaster could be avoided as long as no one actually pushed the button. In many ways it was an all-or-nothing type of disaster. But Global Climate Change has already had strong effects, and they're slated to continue and increase under our business-as-usual approach. It's like a slow-motion nuclear war in terms of the destructive potential. Someone somewhere is launching right now and gradually the Climate Change missles effects' may be cumulatively seen to be as scary as nuclear war.

A Catastrophe in Slow Motion, in fact

Your metaphor reminds me of the great article here:
http://geosci.uchicago.edu/~rtp1/papers/LawReviewCatastro ... (24 page pdf)

By one of the RealClimate.org guys.  Probably the best single short summary of the problem--that it's a catastrophe in slow motion, and we're hard wired to respond to quick, visual stimuli and to relax in an environment of apparent stability--that I know of.

The problem with the nuclear war metaphor is, I think, that framing things in terms of wars engages a part of our brains that needs to be shut off for rational thinking.  I think the denialists new tactic ("but China and India aren't, so whydowehafta," said with stamp of feet) comes from this place.

The 5% Project

Creeping Normalcy and Sinking Ships

JMG wrote...

"Probably the best single short summary of the problem--that it's a catastrophe in slow motion, and we're hard wired to respond to quick, visual stimuli and to relax in an environment of apparent stability--that I know of."

Jared Diamond might reframe this issue in terms of "creeping normalcy". Humans can cope with sudden change and act to preserve themselves. But they have enormous trouble comprehending change that occurs over decades or generations.

JMG wrote...

" I think the denialists new tactic ("but China and India aren't, so whydowehafta," said with stamp of feet) comes from this place."

This is one more example of an entire politcal idealogy's intellectual immaturity and inability to consider the long-term consequences of their actions. If they were trapped on a slowly sinking ship -- absolutely no life boats available -- and there were a few people who refused to help bail water out of the ship, they would cross their arms and say "fine, if you are not going to help then we can all die". It is absolutely insane behavior.

A dream

In the past few months the media has, it seems to me, greatly increased its coverage of climate change. It's like it's okay now to talk about it. It's so different than even a year ago. Of course the more we learn about climate change, the worse it gets, but I think that (in my positive moments, and this must be one of them) people will get frustrated and even angry with the government, with corporations, with any entity they feel isn't doing enough given what's predicted to happen. I mean today on the radio I heard a report on the maple sugaring season in New England, which is one of the worst ever. Then I heard a remark about there being only 15 to 20 more years of sugaring due to climate change. Whoa! This is the kind of thing people here can really wrap their mind around. Sugaring is as much a cultural thing as an economic thing. It's something families pass down through the generations, along with the farm and the maple bush. It's not the same as losing a factory producing widgets. I'm hoping that more information like this will make it into people's consciousness and lead to many wonderful kinds of actions. Even so, I know there's not much hope for the maples. Their fate seems locked in place. What I hope is that the lobby that defends the Earth is comprised of the people of the Earth rising up, finally, to speak and demand change. I can dream but it's still possible.

we need more examples like this

Hello Ms. Lowry.

I recognize and respect your desire to not put an economic value on nature... which I think you've communicated elsewhere on the Grist website.  We should not need such information to justify protecting it.

However, I think we desperately need more examples like the one you just presented. Sure people care about polar bears and penguins, but they seem to notice more when their way of life is clearly threatened.

This seems somehow pertinent

A new video clip from Greenplease. Ribbit!

These are only my personal opinions.
About World Politics

Ha! Great Video!! Thanks

Gore, Carisoprodol 350 mg Project

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