1. Current CAFE (21mpg)
   
2. Clean Diesel (45mpg)   (Jetta Turbo Diesel)
   
3. Hybrid (94mpg)         (2008/9 Prius v3)
   
4. Electric (150mpg)      (Tesla Roadster)

Pretty much everything should be trending toward being electric :P

-David Ahlport

I would also be skeptical about claims that electric cars can really be all that efficient, such as the 150 MPG cited above.  I really do support electric vehicle and equipment applications but it is not always cost-effective, and in many cases is a marginal gain which is simply shifted from the mobile source to the industrial power plant sector (except hydro, that is).  The key is what kind of electrical source.

Obviously, if you're talking an aged coal-fired plant with an inefficient distribution system, that is much worse than somebody living next to a clean wind turbine farm.  And by the way, California was sued as to its ZEV (zero emissions vehicle) program and they totally and completely lost, and few companies make them in big numbers.

Mainly because of the economics, poor battery technology, and other concerns.  Let's face it, while gasoline is cheaper than buying "designer bottled water" we're screwed.  /sammie

Onward through the fog

A Tesla would still be greener than a Prius.

http://www.teslamotors.com/display_data/21stCentElectricC ...

And to phrase the money spent in a better way
They advertise "As low as 1 cent per mile"

Furthermore, electricity can cost a lot less, when it's charged at times of day when the demand is lower.  (For instance, during the evening, when windpower is readily availible)

_

But yeah, merely shifting to electric would go a long way, even if we still used coal.

The trick after that is shifting our grid away from fossil fuels.

-David Ahlport

Admittedly, it would take a long time to get there, but if electric cars in sufficient numbers started charging at night, it would no longer be off-peak (more technically Light Load Hour - LLH), but on-peak (Heavy Load Hour - HLH) and the price differential would reduce or possibly even reverse.

Even now, there are occasionally weird market fluctuations where LLH pricing will exceed HLH prices.  It makes no sense, but happens anyway.

"For instance, during the evening, when windpower is readily availible"

Typically there tends to be a nocturnal pattern to wind generation, with 60% or so of the output occurring during the LLH period, but January reversed that at the project we're involved in, with 60% of the generation occurring during the HLH period.

Common sense is an oxymoron...

Is that you can play games similar to BitTorrent does with internet bandwidth.

And you can actually have people buying stored electricity from their neighbor's car.

Not quite sure what an optimal sharing pattern would be.  

But you could quite easily have people PAY YOU to get on-demand electricity, while you just let yours trickle in.

_

Which gets really fun as batteries charge faster, store hundreds of miles of charge, and approach half a century's worth of wear and tear.

Surely, by the time we have enough cars on the road to have eaten away all the offpeak power, we'd have probably figured this all out.

-David Ahlport

Hey, I know it's tough for Green funded "scientists" to give up the free buttered scones and espresso, but we all have to make sacrifices...

"you can actually have people buying stored electricity from their neighbor's car"

Not sure I want to try and buy electricity from someone who's digital clock looks like this <blink>12:00</blink>.

My point was more that many GHG reduction strategies (hydrogen production, electric cars, etc.) rely on 'low cost' off-peak energy.

If consumption during that period increases, it will change the economics of the situation, so lower off-peak pricing shouldn't be taken as a given in any analysis.  This would also impact the savings potential of the 'smart grid' initiatives (if the lower off-peak pricing goes away).

Also, generation is ramped down or shut down to follow load as it drops off, so increasing consumption during what is now a lighter load period will require generation to be run at a higher level, with attendant fuel use and emissions.

As renewables are developed and displace GHG emitting resources, that impact will be lowered, but (at least IMO, for some time to come) will still exist.

Which is a long way of getting to the need to get people to think about conservation/efficiency/reduction in use, not just a shift from one resource to another.

Common sense is an oxymoron...

Petroleum products continue to dominate energy use in the transportation sector, the use of alternative fuels is expected to remain relatively modest through 2030. The IEO2006 reference case projects a 1.4-percent average annual growth rate for transportation petroleum demand from 2003 to 2030. Much of the projected growth in demand for petroleum products in the transportation sector comes from the non-OECD economies (2.3 percent per year) as compared with the OECD countries (0.8 percent per year).  

In the United States, the transportation sector continues to account for more than one-fourth of the country's total energy consumption; and in the IEO2006 reference case, U.S. transportation energy demand grows from 27.1 quadrillion Btu in 2003 to 33.1 quadrillion Btu in 2015 and 39.7 quadrillion Btu in 2030. The United States, currently the largest user of transportation energy among the OECD economies, accounts for 55 percent of total OECD transportation sector energy use in 2030.  

Also, generation is ramped down or shut down to follow load as it drops off, so increasing consumption during what is now a lighter load period will require generation to be run at a higher level, with attendant fuel use and emissions.

As renewables are developed and displace GHG emitting resources, that impact will be lowered, but (at least IMO, for some time to come) will still exist.

Which is why it's good that an electric car powered by coal is still much greener than a gasoline car run on oil.

But you are right.
The easy part is getting off oil.

The hard part is getting off coal.

However the technology to achieve both go hand in hand when cars are electric.

_

As for getting off coal.

The crutch I'd suggest to use would be gasified or torrefied biomass to fill the dispatchability gaps.

But the only way to curb the usage of a "cheap" source of energy like coal, is to attach a price to carbon emissions.

Or to yank out all of coal's lavish subsidies.  (Yeah right)

-David Ahlport