Staff Contributors
Guest Contributors
Gristmill

Letter from Bali: A tragic truth

Professor Andrew Light laments the unnecessary line in the sand the U.S. has drawn in Bali

Posted by Guest author (Guest Contributor) at 3:26 PM on 15 Dec 2007

This is a guest essay from Andrew Light, an environmental ethicist and professor of philosophy and public affairs at the University of Washington in Seattle. He attended the Bali meetings as an observer and participant in a side event. The essay comes to us from Nusa Dua, Indonesia.

-----

I must admit, I clapped. I was probably among the loudest.

Drawing a line in the sand
A line in the sand.
Photo: iStockphoto

With the negotiations here in Bali for the U.N. conference on climate change facing an apparent intractable deadlock going into their last day, I was in a standing-room-only auditorium to hear former Vice President Al Gore address the assembled environmental community, business leaders, and state representatives. For those familiar with Gore's stump speech on global warming, and his acceptance address for the Nobel Peace Prize earlier in the week, much in his comments was familiar.

One line changed all that. Cautiously hoped for by some, unanticipated by most, it changed the climate in the room considerably: "I am not a representative of my government, so I am not bound by diplomatic niceties. My own country, the United States, is principally responsible for obstructing progress here in Bali. [Applause.] We all know that."

With these words, Gore expressed the extreme sense of frustration most in the room had been feeling this past week over the U.S. delegation's refusal to commit to language in the Bali roadmap for cuts of 25 to 40 percent of greenhouse gases below 1990 levels by industrialized countries in the next extension of the Kyoto Protocol due to be settled in 2009. More than that, by openly criticizing the Bush administration, Gore had definitively answered those tempted to lump all Americans together on this issue -- a welcome relief for those of us who had become progressively more embarrassed by our country's position and inability to effectively explain its reasons.

When offered, those reasons were simply lame. Why did the U.S. block the emissions cut goal? To avoid "prejudging" the outcome of the next treaty. In the end they won, finally getting an agreement from the E.U. for a document that will not require an outcome wherein the U.S., or any other country, embraces a goal for eventual caps on its emissions.

What exactly would the 25 to 40 percent goal have prejudged? This is a difficult question to answer, especially in light of American negotiators' public praise this week of the work of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and their recognition of the validity of the conclusions drawn in its most recent Fourth Assessment report. It can't be that cuts are needed -- only skeptics still hold that view, and the administration has renounced this position. It must be the specific figure proposed in the Bali document and the sorts of economic transformations that would be required to meet cuts in that range.

It didn't need to be this way though. The stakes were actually low enough at this meeting that no hard-line brinksmanship was necessary. We could have instead showed up intent on demonstrating a more constructive role for the U.S., sending a message to the world that we are now serious on this issue. Instead, we drew an unnecessary line in the Bali sand.

At the beginning of this past week I met a reporter who was bored with what he was covering so far. After all, nothing was really being decided. The member parties of the U.N. framework were really just negotiating about negotiating -- laying out the relatively broad aspirational brush strokes of what a future climate treaty would look like. The goals for cuts stipulated in the Bali roadmap would not set up a binding parameter on the next treaty, but only outline a reasonable, and, given the dire warnings of the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report, prudent expectation for the language of the next treaty. Even if a target range could be used to exert some pressure on the shape of the next treaty, it would not be unassailable.

By the end of the week, the refusal by the U.S. to agree to even this minimal language had turned the meeting into a crisis worthy of front page and top-of-the-hour reporting. The reporter I met earlier was now scrambling. A diplomatic stalemate had been created with repercussions beyond Bali, extending into the administration's planned Major Economies Meeting in Hawaii next month, where Bush would push forward his own voluntary approach. Because the U.S. would not even accept compromise language committing only previous signatories of the Kyoto Protocol to the goal of a 25 to 40 percent cut (so, not us), the administration seemed intent on keeping everyone from having aspirations to do what they thought was the right thing.

Why did the U.S. hold out? Why did the administration continue to alienate us in the eyes of the rest of the world? I'm not sure, but here are four potential reasons.

1. The Bush administration was trying to protect their friends in the energy sector, who helped get them get elected.

If this is the case, then this administration is politically naïve -- and that simply isn't true. This is the explanation many of us gave in 2000 after Bush reneged on his campaign promise to regulate CO2 as pollution, and Cheney kept his list of environmental advisors secret. It was an explanation that seemed plausible in 2004, when the administration was still harboring doubts about the science.

But now those days are past, and such an explanation holds less and less water. It evinces even more leaks in light of the current thinking of the business community on this issue. In addition to those businesses who have actively adopted an ethic of responsibility about climate change, those that remain see a changing regulatory climate and don't like the options. In his remarks, Gore repeated the promising news that had been at the center of John Kerry's message to the conference earlier in the week: The states are on the move. Regional state compacts have been launched in the Northeast, Midwest, and West on cutting greenhouse gases, which will commit over half the U.S. economy, and just under half the population, to significant cuts, amounting to responsibility for just under 40 percent of total U.S. emissions.

No business working across borders wants to work under three or more sets of climate regulations. As a representative from a prominent utility put it in Bali, those working on the regional compacts should not get too comfortable, as they will inevitably lead into a federal system (most likely cap and trade) and eventually an international system. If these are the friends of the Bush administration, they apparently no longer want protection from regulators, but instead require support to build a single, coherent regulatory system.

2. The administration didn't want to burden the next presidential administration with the expectation that the next treaty should contain mandatory caps of this magnitude.

Sound implausible? The Washington Post reported that in a closed-door meeting on Friday, U.S. senior climate negotiator Harlan Watson told Democratic aides "they should be grateful the United States was resisting mandatory emissions targets. 'I'm doing you a favor,' he said." But again, I find this explanation implausible. For one thing, it is presumptuous and mistakenly paternalistic. It is hard to believe that this administration is really trying now, on this issue, to reach across the aisle or assist a Democratic president who actually wants to participate in the Kyoto process.

And if a Republican wins the next election, there is a good chance that he will either also want to cooperate with the rest of the world on climate change, or be forced to do so by the people and the Congress, in which case the administration is just increasing the hurdles he will have to get over to win international trust in the next diplomatic round. Besides, given the legacy -- leaving the next president with the problem of Iraq -- this would be a relatively small, non-binding burden, and of very little help.

3. The Bush administration is stalling the process until commitments for cuts are garnered from China, India, Brazil, and other high-output developing countries.

The U.S. has staked this claim as a bedrock of its opposition since the beginning and used it as a reason to prevent our own EPA from regulating carbon under the Clean Air Act even while it was still denying the scientific basis of the problem. What this position leaves out, and was also shockingly absent from the original debate over Kyoto in the U.S. Senate (where a non-binding vote ran 95-0 against the treaty), is any recognition that the Kyoto treaty is part of a process and not a one-off attempt to solve the problem.

Developing countries must be shown that there will be real leadership on climate change from the wealthy polluters, not in order to bide their time on the sidelines, but with some reasonable assurance that mitigation and adaptation efforts will not prevent needed development. Look at the debate in Bali over technology transfer. As the Pakistani environment minister put it, without help to acquire clean technologies, compliance with an international regime of carbon cuts and sustainable development would be at odds.

This is not only a fair claim, it is premised on joining an international regime. In one press briefing, James Connaughton, chief of the White House Council on Environmental Quality, put it this way: "We will lead. The U.S. will lead. But leadership also requires others to fall in line and follow." While analytically true, it begs the question: Why would anyone follow a leader who appears to be standing still?

4. The administration was simply trying to save face.

After seven years of being the chief impediment to an effective global treaty, ostensibly because of doubts about the scientific consensus, and now being forced to publicly relinquish those doubts, the administration is reaching for a reason to re-justify its mistaken position after the fact. We've heard this one before in other areas of foreign policy.

If this is true, it is beyond sad. It's tragic. It is not the kind of behavior we would expect of a democratic global power facing what may be, in the words of the theologian Thomas Berry, the great work of our generation.

At the end, all explanations, those offered to us by the U.S. delegation and those we dream up ourselves, are unsatisfactory.

Which brings me back to Thursday night in Bali, listening to Gore's speech. He knew what he was saying in this applause-generating line, and the implications of saying it. Unfortunately, too many media outlets have left out the remarks that followed. Gore outlined two paths for those who had applauded: either get mad, or move forward on the assumption that things will change in the U.S. in the next two years, creating a better environment for a cooperative agreement that the U.S. will eventually join.

The outcome was essentially the second path. According to Hans Verolme, director of the World Wildlife Fund climate-change program, what we now have is a document that leaves "a seat at the table for the next U.S. president, but clearly the Bush administration has shown it's not serious about using the best available science to craft a deal that reflects the urgency of the threat of dangerous climate change. The serious countries will do their best to strike a serious deal in 2009."

By drawing an unnecessary line in the sands of Bali, the Bush administration has proven itself not serious about one of the most important moral issues of our time. In that respect, while the world has continued down Gore's second constructive path, we should also reserve the right to at least revisit the first path -- getting angry -- just for a while.

Bush has let down the majority of Americans, who want something to be done on global warming, and the broader international community, which is now prepared to do something about it. The reason it felt good to applaud Gore's zinger on Thursday is that we should feel good about being on the right side of an issue like this one, even in the midst of our frustration.

Still, righteous indignation can be a good spark for renewed commitment, but it can't be relied upon to get us where we need to go. The world community has graciously left us a spot at the table to prove ourselves over the next two years. When we do that -- when we take our seat and lead -- we'll really have something worth applauding.

Wonderful Imagery

About drawing the line in the sand...reminded me of that scene in the film Madagascar, where the animals are in a very serious predicament (lost on an island they don't know, far away from home), and the only thing they can do is squabble childishly, drawing lines in the sand. For some reason, the picture of someone (from the US) childishly squabbling instead of paying attention to the serious predicament reminds me of the current situation...odd...

The thing I don't understand is why the US gets away with acting like a hard-to-get, beautiful, rich girl: "you change everything to fit what I want, and maybe I'll agree to sign it." Couldn't anyone call their bluff, like Gore seemed to be trying to do?

As for 'prejudging', the definition I found for that was as follows:

To judge beforehand without possessing adequate evidence.

So what evidence do they want?

Sigh. But well done for applauding. By the way, I missed the specific article in any English-language media, but a local paper here translated and paraphrased Gore as saying, not just what is quoted above, but to leave a space open for Bush's successor. Does anyone know if he was really that explicit? Or did the words go through various misadventures en route?

If I share initials with 'Global Warming', is that a sign?

The business of climate change...

Thanks for sharing! But I'm still unclear from your essay as to why the U.S. administration did what they did.

My take on it is that the people who make up and support the Bush administration are simply incapable of imagining the world, outside of their narrow instrumental politics. That is, if the world goes to hell and the ice sheets melt, well, at least the Republicans had another "victory" to snub their opponents with.

I think, though, on a  deeper level, more so than the Democrats, the Republican are beholden to Big Oil and Big Coal. Politics is the shadow of big business, as Dewey said all those years ago. It's not that Americans are any more stupid that other peoples (they also favor government action), but that their government (and media) is effectively run by business interests.

How will what is happening in Bali..............

..........be explained to our children?

Seldom in the course of human events have so few leaders made decisions that could prove to be so deleterious and potentially ruinous of the lives of so many children.  And for what?

Steven Earl Salmony
AWAREness Campaign on The Human Population
http://sustainabilitysoutheast.org/

"I am not a representative..."

No, Al, you're not.   You were not elected in 1992, and not in 2000.   The IPCC was not "elected".    I don't even know who was at this conference, and in an age of the Internet and participatory democracy, I find all activities surround CO2 regulation to be incredibly dictatorial.  

How are the representatives chosen?  What powers to they have?

Remember, the world's largest country, China, 2 Billion people, are living in a dictatorship.   Those individuals have no say even if their government happened to do what you and Al Gore want them to do.


Possibly the best Alternative Energy blog I read: New Energy and Fuel

Gore in 2000

Let's keep the record straight. Gore was elected in 2000. Bush was apointed.

Video of Gore Bali Speech

After searching for quite some time I finally settled on this ten minute excerpt as the longest version of the Gore/Bali speech on the web at this time.  I checked all of the UN and CSPANs and usual suspects for a longer one.

Its here on my blog
 http://web.mac.com/cjohnsonla

and originally here on YouTube
 http://youtube.com/watch?v=0HeTA1S7TXM

<object width="425" height="355"><param name="movie" value="http://www.youtube.com/v/0HeTA1S7TXM&rel=1"></param><param name="wmode" value="transparent"></param><embed src="http://www.youtube.com/v/0HeTA1S7TXM&rel=1" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" wmode="transparent" width="425" height="355"></embed></object>

-Christopher

A new paradigm is needed

http://amazngdrx.blogharbor.com/blog/_archives/2007/12/16 ...

A new paradigm in utility grid engineering.  The old "stable" fully dispatchable grid is no longer viable.

The Bali conference needed to hear this.  Did it come up at all?

http://amazngdrx.blogharbor.com/blog

great article

Amazingdrx, that's a great article.  95 percent of baseline power from wind with storage of heat and cold and using 10 percent of cars which would be plugins.  It makes sense.

Although I could see some nervous electricity grid operators saying, please, please stay home and generate electricity instead of going to the movies or whatever.  


Getting angry...

So, the U.S. has declared total war on the biosphere and common sense.

Perhaps the rest of the world should answer it by dropping (not the bomb, but) their dollar assets. Perhaps a collapse of the U.S. economy would force emission reductions like in East Germany when communism collaped there. Ecologico-economists should ponder that possible solution.

Entire Gore speech video

You may find a link to the entire 52 minute Gore speech at Bali at this site (lower right hand corner):

http://www.un.org/webcast/unfccc/2007/index.asp?go=071213 ...

wild speculation and grammatical correction

Well, you shot down all the explanations for Bushco intransigence that immediately occur. So here are two wild ones:
It's already too late to prevent cataclysmic change and the well-informed at the apex of the world's most powerful government know it. The overwhelming majority will die. These guys have plans for a domed enclave, or a city in orbit, in which they and their chosen will survive. They need more money to build it.
I know, pretty far-fetched. Here's another, suggested by the part about how the US delegate actually opposed efforts to reduce emissions on the part of other countries: the US government has been taken over by lizard-like aliens and they want to anti-terraform the Earth to better resemble their hotter, stormier homeworld. In addition to the fact that all the actions of the Bush administartion are consonant with efforts to increase the greenhouse effect as fast as possible, my other evidence for this theory is Dick Cheney. Do you believe that guy is human? I want a DNA test.
All right, now for the grammar issue. It isn't correct to say "corporations who..." It should be "corporations which". But this issue goes way beyond grammar. The author's (typically) erroneous worldview is revealed elsewhere in the piece: "the US" is said to want or say things; and then the word "we" is used to talk about what the criminal representing the Bush administration has done. None of us was consulted, or ever will be--we are not responsible for what these people do. We are responsible for trying to put a stop to it, but many of us have worked for years to get them impeached, to get investigations of their many crimes, to contact "our" representatives in Washington to get responsible policy--all to no avail. Governments are not people, and we need not identify with what is done by representatives of the US government.
Similar muddy language and thinking surround corporations. Corporations are not people, and they are not LIKE people--they are like machines. There are no "good" or "bad" corporations, and they cannot be reformed. They are machines for making money, and if we tolerate their continued existence at all we must get them under human control, not attempt to use moral suasion on them. That would be about as effective as trying to reason with your car. True, statements are made "by corporations"--what does that mean? If a corporation states that it loves forests, for example, it means two things: that the people in the PR department decided it would help the corporate image best if they said this in these words---and ususally, it means that the corporation is currently raping forests.
Perhaps the greatest problem hampering human attempts to deal with our mounting crises is our inability to make collective decisions well. It would help to at least think about this more clearly.

Bravo, MWildfire!

Very well put!

The lazy habit of using the name for an entire nation to represent a small number of decision-makers goes back, I guess, to the ancient Greek historians, who could write things like "The Athenians invaded Sicily," without bothering to make it clear that not all Athenians were responsible for the decision or took part in the actual expedition.

Better that, though, than the concept of collective guilt that the ancient Israelites were so fond of.  We may well wonder, e.g., if all the inhabitants of the Earth, minus Noah and his family and a few animals, deserved to be drowned, or if all the first-born of Egypt deserved to be slain by the Angel of Death.

And yet, let us remember that there are some Americans who are ready to explain the deadly attacks of 9/11, and deadly attacks on Americans in the military in Iraq and Afghanistan, as expressions of God's wrath against all the American people, who have apparently sinned and displeased Him by not completely restricting women's reproductive rights, and by not crushing homosexuality.

I cannot tell you how bad I would feel, were God to direct an asteroid to smash into us in NYC, on account of the crimes of Bush/Cheney & Co.

Chickens deserve our true friendship! So do fish! So do other sentient beings! Let us learn to be kind.

Reasons why USA did not agree with U.N.Climateprop

Some reasons are given to explain why the USA (supposedly the Bush administration) was not ready to support other countries conclusion.

But the most important reason (possible) was left out, perhaps inadvertently. The USA has the greatest economy and therefore the most difficult job in curtailing its undesired emmissions into the global atmosphere. The leaders also know other countries can "promise", thinking they can actually do anything in their countries to reduce bad emmissions. Other countries will not be pointed at, if they fail. But the USA will certainly be singled out if it fails quantitatively. The USA has been the world's greatest leader in environmental protection, so it's not like they should now be thought-of "the problem". Anything the USA signs or doesn't makes news - because they have the greatest operation. Other countries just "promise", then see what happens....
Just a thought (missing).

MeltingIceGeoid Honolulu, Hawaii, USA

You are not logged in. Thus, you cannot post a comment. If you have an account, log in. If you don't have an account, well, by all means go make one! Meet you back here in five.
sign in
Search Gristmill
Subscribe
  • subscribe via RSSStay updated with the Gristmill RSS feed.
  • Add to My Yahoo!
  • Subscribe with Bloglines
  • Subscribe in NewsGator Online
  • Subscribe in Netvibes
  • Subscribe in Google
Using Gristmill
  • What is Gristmill?
  • Posting rules
The comments of Gristmill users reflect the opinions of those individuals only, and do not necessarily reflect the viewpoints of Grist, its staff, its board members, their psychotherapists, or their aestheticians. Got it?

Gristmill is powered by Scoop.

ADVERTISING POLICY


About Grist | Support Grist | Job Board | Archives | Grist by Email | RSS | Podcast
Gristmill Blog | In the News | Ask Umbra | Muckraker | Victual Reality | 'Tis the Season | The Grist List | The Bottom Line



Grist: Environmental News and Commentary
a beacon in the smog (tm) ©2008. Grist Magazine, Inc. All rights reserved. Gloom and doom with a sense of humor®.
Webmaster | Sitemap | Privacy Policy | Terms of Service | Trademarks