Ice, ice, maybe (not)

Must-see ice-sheet TV

Posted by Joseph Romm (Guest Contributor) at 1:27 AM on 28 Nov 2007

Read more about: climate | climate science | climate change impacts

Do you want the latest data -- some not yet published -- and the best post-IPCC scientific predictions on the stunning collapse of Arctic ice and unexpected shrinking of the Greenland (and Antarctic) ice sheets? Then you should definitely watch this C-SPAN video of yesterday's American Meteorological Society seminar (see note on link below).

The seminar is by three of the world's top cryosphere experts: Dr. Mark Serreze (NOAA), Scott Luthcke (NASA), and Dr. Konrad Steffen (CIRES) -- full bios and program summary available here. I will post their presentations when AMS puts them online (which will be here).

I have spent a great deal of time studying the ice and sea-level-rise issue (see links below) and still found the presentations informative and startling. It is very safe to say the Arctic Sea will be essentially ice-free by 2030, and I'd personally bet on 2020 -- any takers?

The most interesting presentation to me was the last one, by Konrad Steffen, who made a convincing case that the IPCC is "underestimating the rate of sea level rise" this century significantly. He expects one meter or more by 2100. The modelers are busy at work trying to account for ice dynamics in ice-sheet collapse -- but it may take four or five years for them to do that. When they are finished, sea-level-rise estimates for this century are likely to double or triple.

So watch the full video as soon as you can, since I don't know how long the link provided above will be good.

Note to C-SPAN: Please set up permalinks -- rather than making people go to C-SPAN.org and click on "Featured Topics -- Energy" -- and hope the desired video is still there!

This post was created for ClimateProgress.org, a project of the Center for American Progress Action Fund.

For story: Ice, ice, maybe (not)
6 Comments | Post a Comment

arctic sea ice

2020 is a safe bet. From watching TheCryosphere i'd say 2015 is a possibility. Any tankers?

by jnffarrell at 7:11 AM on 28 Nov 2007

A pool

I got 2012 in the pool. The Mayan prediction for climactic disaster of some sort. Will it include climactic climate disaster? That's my guess.

I think the ice is melting at an ever increasing exponential rate and that will stop the ocean conveyor that powers the Gulf Stream. Putting north america and europe into an ice age. That'll cool things off.

How long before it goes back to a more usual pattern? as long as it takes to reform enough ice, to reflect enough solar heat, to offset the ever more serious excess GHG problem. Imagine the increase in fossil fuel consumption and GHG release from longer winters in Europe and the US.

This is going to be a global panic.

Will ice melt throw off the Earth's motion somehow effecting the seasonal solar angle? The weight of ice and water has remade the surface of the Earth for billions of years. Has it changed the orbital motion as well? The leap second added every few years because of slowing rotation is due to tidal pull.

http://amazngdrx.blogharbor.com/blog John Schneider, Northern Wisconsin

by amazingdrx at 8:26 AM on 28 Nov 2007

just checking

so this talk about the antarctic ice INCREASING while the artic is decreasing is bunk, right?

by Flamingo at 9:14 AM on 28 Nov 2007

permalink

rtsp://video.c-span.org/project/energy/energy112607_arctic.rm

as long as they leave it there.

by raleighsmvp at 9:22 AM on 28 Nov 2007

and even more link-like

rtsp://video.c-span.org/project/energy/energy112607_arctic.rm

by raleighsmvp at 9:29 AM on 28 Nov 2007

Yes, both are decreasing

so this talk about the antarctic ice INCREASING while the artic is decreasing is bunk, right?

Yes. Whatever the Antarctic ice sheet may have been doing, area-wise, its volume has been decreasing: http://www.nasa.gov/home/hqnews/2006/mar/HQ_06085_arctic_ ...

--- G.R.L. Cowan, hydrogen-to-boron convert
How shall cars gain nuclear cachet?
http://www.eagle.ca/~gcowan/boron_blast.html

by GRLCowan at 1:20 PM on 28 Nov 2007
[ Parent ]

ADVERTISING POLICY

You are not logged in. Thus, you cannot post a comment. If you have an account, log in. If you don't have an account, well, by all means go make one! Meet you back here in five.