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Be car-ful?

Giving up car-lessness for Rob Lowe's plug-in hybrid

Posted by Alan Durning (Guest Contributor) at 1:00 PM on 16 Nov 2007

This essay is part of a series on not owning a car.

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rob_lowe_flickr_V_80wThe weekend before Halloween, my car-less family got a loaner plug-in hybrid-electric car to try. You see, the City of Seattle and some other local public agencies are testing the conversion of some existing hybrids to plug-ins to accelerate the spread of these near-zero-emissions vehicles. As a favor and, perhaps, for some publicity (this post), the city's program manager offered me four days' use of the prototype -- previously driven by actor Rob Lowe.

Enthusiasm about plug-in hybrids -- like their now-almost-mainstream siblings the gas-electric hybrids -- has been running high of late. For example, the California Air Resources Board is among the toughest air quality regulators in the world. When members of the board's expert panel reviewed the evidence on plug-in hybrids, they issued a boosterish report predicting widespread adoption and fast market penetration. The Western Governors' Association is similarly smitten (MS Word doc). The tone of some popular press reports makes it seem that the vehicular second coming may be at hand.

For this auto (pictured in our back yard, with our Flexcar visible out front), I wondered, would my family give up its car-less ways? Would the joy of these 100+ mpg wheels cause us to end our 21 months of car-free-ness, emulate Rob, and buy our own plug-in?

plug-in_hybrid_350

The short answer? No. Plug-in hybrid-electric cars hold great promise, as long as we can fix the laws. And the technology. Oh, and the price.

None of those fixes are "gimmes." Without fixing the laws -- and specifically, without a legal cap on greenhouse gases -- plug-ins could actually do more harm than good. And without the second two fixes -- working technology and competitive prices -- plug-ins won't spread beyond the Hollywood set. (Echoes of this point are in Elizabeth Kolbert's latest article in The New Yorker.)

But I'm getting ahead of myself. Let me start at the beginning.

What's a plug-in hybrid-electric car?

plug-in_and_Peter_150wLike any hybrid car, a plug-in is a vehicle with a gasoline-powered internal combustion engine and, also, a battery-powered electric motor. Either the engine, or the motor, or both can power the wheels. The balance between the two shifts continuously depending on how much power is in the battery and how hard you're pressing the accelerator. Furthermore, excess energy from the engine -- and the wheels, during braking -- recharges the battery.

What's different about a plug-in is that it's got a larger battery than a regular hybrid -- much larger. In the Prius we drove (converted to plug-in by the lithium-ion battery wizards at A123 Systems of Watertown, Mass.), the battery fills the space under the trunk where the spare tire should be. (Who needs a spare anyway?) Also, as the name suggests, a plug-in has an electric socket, so you can charge the battery by patching the car into the electric grid at home or work. (That's what my son Peter is doing in this photo.) Thanks to these additions, plug-in hybrids are more electric-powered than gas-powered. Think of them as battery vehicles with back-up gasoline engines. As the placards on Rob Lowe's trial model declared, a plug-in can easily go more than 100 miles per gallon. (Of course, that's a one-eyed claim, since plug-ins operate more on kilowatt-hours than gallons.)

How did it drive?

Fine, thanks. Driving a plug-in hybrid is like driving any other car. There's not much to say. You push the accelerator and it goes. What's different? It's really quiet, even quieter than a regular Prius.

In fact, the main differences my kids noticed were the luxury car features, not the battery-electric ones. Unacquainted with Hollywood-sized bank accounts, they've rarely set their car-less feet inside an auto so new and loaded with features. They liked the leather interior and, especially, the computer monitor centered in the dashboard. It displays real-time navigation instructions, maps your location, and utters directions -- with perfect diction, in a woman's voice. (Whose voice is that? I want to know.) When you shift into reverse, the monitor converts to a closed-circuit TV screen and shows what's behind you. My son Peter and his friend took turns standing behind the parked car and watching the screen. Again, none of this has anything to do with the car being a plug-in. It has to do it with being Rob Lowe's. Apparently, you can get such features on most new cars. (Being car-less, I had no idea!)

As for me, I enjoyed the gauges and graphics that indicated what power source I was running and what my fuel economy was. Or, I should say, I enjoyed the gauges and graphics for the first 48 hours. For the remaining 48 hours, the dashboard beeped incessant warnings. "Problem" flashed relentlessly on the computer screen. The only way I could stop the alerts was to turn off the bonus battery kit. Just before our use of the car ended, a technician from A123 returned my call and explained how to reboot the control system to "clear the error." (One problem with a car that's half computer is, well, it's half computer.)

No doubt, plug-in makers will iron out such problems before the vehicles hit the market. Road testing is one purpose of Seattle's pilot project. And no one anticipates mass-market plug-ins for a few years, in any event. The largest consumer pilot test yet was recently announced in northern California, and it will involve only ten cars.

What's remarkable is how unremarkable it was to drive this revolutionary new car design. During our short (pre-beep) time with it, the plug-in provided the same performance as any other new car, with less mess: the same comfort and speed, with fewer economic, environmental, and military repercussions.

That's the good news.

Actually, it's only the beginning of the good news. Since driving the car, I've been studying up on plug-ins, and they've got lots to love.

The good news: Plug-in hybrids ...

Are perfect for normal days. On any given day, about half of American cars, pickups, vans, and SUVs cover 20 miles or fewer, according to the Pacific Northwest National Labs in Richland, Wash. (PDF). So even though plug-in hybrids have a limited all-electric range, a range of just 20 miles per battery charge (roughly what Rob's plug-in has) would be enough to quench the daily energy demand of half the U.S. fleet. That's right, half the fleet would burn no gas on any given day.

Tap unused generating capacity. The same paper demonstrates that the existing U.S. electric power generation, transmission, and distribution systems have ample unused capacity to charge up plug-ins' batteries during off hours, mostly at night. Demand for electricity is intermittent and fluctuates both daily and seasonally. In most parts of North America, the entire electric power infrastructure is fully utilized only about 5 percent of the time. Plug-in vehicles could charge up in the off-peak hours, using onboard timers or more sophisticated "smart grid" mechanisms. (This point is often misunderstood: it's not that plug-ins charge up on electricity that would otherwise go to waste; it's that power plants have unused capacity. That is, they could operate more of the time, and the extra juice they make could fill plug-ins' batteries.)

Help us get off oil. Without a single new power plant or high-tension wire, the U.S. electricity grid could supply 73 percent of the energy needed by its light duty vehicles. Getting that much transportation energy through the electric grid, rather than through the petroleum distribution system, would trim U.S. oil imports by half! It could also prevent -- and help moderate the economic impacts of -- oil price shocks, while keeping more dollars circulating locally.

Cut fuel bills. Electricity is far less expensive per mile driven than oil: it's like buying gasoline for under a dollar a gallon. And because charging vehicle batteries in off-peak hours would dramatically increase sales of power and allow the amortization of capital costs over more kilowatt hours, the price of electricity would probably decline.

Increase energy flexibility. Electricity is a more versatile energy carrier than gasoline, ethanol, or biodiesel. It's far easier to transport than liquid fuels and increases energy options. For example, plug-in hybrids can put electricity back into the grid, to help balance loads or increase security.

Boost energy efficiency. In technical, engineering terms, electricity is an efficient energy carrier, whether compared to conventional fossil fuels or hydrogen or biofuels. The makers of the all-electric Tesla sports car make this point well in a geek-alicious presentation you can watch here (click "view presentation").

Can store renewable power. Plug-in hybrid vehicles, with their capacity to stockpile electricity, are a much-needed complement to the continued expansion of wind, solar, and other intermittent renewable power sources. On-board batteries could soak up any unused power that flows from wind and solar installations when the winds blow or the sun shines, then use the power whenever it's needed.

Clean the air where people live. Plug-in hybrids would improve urban and suburban air quality, thanks to plug-ins' near-zero-emissions from driving. And while emissions of health-threatening pollutants from electricity plants would increase, those plants are typically far removed from population centers. What's more, power plants' grand scale makes advanced pollution control systems economic. The industry-supported Electric Power Research Institute and the environmental lobby Natural Resources Defense Council joined together to study the air quality implications of a sudden and sweeping shift to plug-in hybrids. They assumed a worst-case scenario in which almost all of the new power came from coal-fired plants and concluded that emissions of most health-threatening pollutants would diminish markedly.

Could slash greenhouse gas emissions. According to the most comprehensive study of the question yet completed, again by EPRI and NRDC, rapid adoption of plug-in hybrids between now and 2050 could -- repeat, could -- slash U.S. greenhouse-gas emissions by billions of tons, cumulatively. (I know, following the numbers of climate protection is confusing: millions, billions, tons, pounds, barrels. Suffice it to say, billions of tons is a lot -- a big deal.)

The bad news:

Emissions today. For starters -- and notwithstanding any future greenhouse-gas benefits -- driving a plug-in hybrid right now in North America probably increases climate-warming emissions, compared with driving a regular hybrid. Why? In a nutshell, because most of a plug-in's electricity comes from coal-fired power plants.

Now, you might think that running a plug-in hybrid on Cascadian electricity would mean running it largely on emission-free hydropower. But that's a mistake. You see, every watt of hydro and wind electricity that we produce is already spoken for, used to satisfy demand somewhere here or elsewhere in the western power grid. So consuming local power (usually, hydropower) to charge plug-ins means that, somewhere else on the grid, another coal-fired plant has to rev up just a bit to replace the power sucked down by the car's batteries. Until renewable power becomes so abundant that we get virtually none of our power from dirty coal plants -- until we have long periods of each day when we have no other use for some of our wind and solar and hydro power -- any marginal demand for baseline power (the night-time power that can recharge plug-in hybrids) will most likely be met by increased generation from coal. (In fact, because of Cascadia's lack of coal plants, PNNL counts us as the North American region least ready for plug-ins. Ouch.)

Trading gasoline for coal-fired power is a bad deal for the climate. This chart adapted from the EPRI/NRDC report illustrates the situation. The chart shows that, if the electricity that charges a plug-in's batteries comes exclusively from coal, the total climate-disrupting emissions per mile from a plug-in exceed the emissions from a regular hybrid. (Sorry, Rob. I know that's got to hurt.)

(I added a note at the bottom explaining more about this chart, for the data hungry.)

Plug-in_hybrid_emissions_chart_350

Emissions tomorrow. Even though today's power grid doesn't make plug-ins a good deal for the climate, EPRI and NRDC find that replacing gasoline and diesel vehicles with electric ones will eventually be a climate plus -- assuming the electric power system gets cleaner over time. But that's a big assumption. The only guarantee of clean plug-ins (like those shown in the shortest bars of the chart) would be a firm, descending legal limit on greenhouse-gas emissions.

So in essence, the real barrier to reducing vehicle emissions isn't car technology at all. It's the law. Once we've capped greenhouse-gas emissions from all sources and implemented an economy-wide tax or cap-and-trade system (auctioned, please!), we can be sure that plug-ins will deliver on their potential climate benefits. Until then, plug-ins will likely be slightly worse for climate than regular hybrids.

Batteries are inconvenient. Inventors are improving batteries in a hurry, as this article from the electrical engineering journal Spectrum details. But they're still a long way from the finish line. Even the best batteries are limited in range, lifetime, and recharge speed. Despite all the high-tech wizardry we can throw at the problem, electricity remains wickedly difficult to store.

Liquid fuels like gasoline and diesel, on the other hand, are terrifically convenient. In less time than it takes your traveling companion to get back from the loo at Exxon, you can pump enough fuel into your tank to drive hundreds of miles. In contrast, recharging your state-of-the-art lithium-ion battery with 20 miles' worth of electricity takes hours, maybe even all night. And unlike fuel tanks, the storage capacity of batteries shrinks over time, and may eventually require costly replacements.

Cost. Charging a plug-in's batteries is cheap, especially compared with $3-a-gallon gas. But the batteries themselves are pricey. (The all-electric Tesla sports car's half-ton battery system alone costs almost as much as a new Prius, according to the same Spectrum article.) Even the most devout evangelists of plug-in hybrids point to the problem of battery cost. For example, MIT's Gerbrand Cedar, one of the inventors of the technology behind A123's battery design, estimates in this presentation that battery costs need to come down by about 60 percent for plug-in technology to compete in the market.

The hype cycle:

Three of the five trips I took in Rob Lowe's former ride were delivering carloads of kids to soccer games. (I had parenting debts to pay.) One thing I'll say: the plug-in brought squads of people around to talk -- far more than have ever noticed us arriving by tandem bicycle or bus. The experience set me thinking about the psychology of vehicle technology.

In 1999, at the height of the fuel-cell craze, I remember listening to car makers and science writers foretelling the imminent arrival of the hydrogen economy. Soon thereafter, hype turned to disillusionment. More recently, biofuels have followed a similar trajectory, in which expectations blossomed far faster than actual market presence and, when unrealistic expectations were not met, the popular sentiment began to switch to rejection. Plug-in hybrids are becoming the new "it" technology in Cascadia, and I worry they'll fall from favor as quickly as their predecessors.

These technologies all hold promise, plug-ins possibly more even than the others. Fixating on car technology, however, is part of the problem. It perpetuates the hype cycle: every new fuel or power train design leads to a whirlwind romance, followed, eventually, by disenchantment. And the drama distracts from less glamorous but ultimately more effective, political and institutional solutions, such as auctioned cap-and-trade systems, carbon taxes, and complete, compact communities, not to mention feebates, decoupling, efficiency improvements, congestion pricing, and pay-as-you-drive auto insurance -- and even ride hopping, high-tech hitch-hiking, better public transit, walkshed mapping, and (my current passion) Bicycle Respect.

When we make these changes collectively, through our democratic institutions, vehicle technology will take care of itself. Investors will finance new product development. Consumers will select those products that meet their needs at a price they're willing to pay. Plug-in hybrids will compete head-to-head, with fuel cells, biofuels, bicycles, conventional technologies, and perhaps alternatives we do not yet imagine. And I'll decide, like everyone else, whether to buy a plug-in hybrid car. For now, though, I'm staying car-less.

Besides, as this photo shows, our car-less trunk is almost as big as Rob Lowe's. plug-in_and_burley_350w

Boring details about the chart, in case you're interested: Extracting, transporting, and especially refining petroleum burns a lot of oil. The resulting greenhouse gases, shown in blue, are called "well to tank" emissions (measured in this chart in grams of CO2 equivalent). The emissions, shown in red, from your exhaust pipe are called "tank to wheels." The emissions that come from the electric power system are shown in yellow. As you can see, total emissions per typical mile are higher for a plug-in running on electricity from an old or new coal-fired power plant than for a regular hybrid.

The plug-in hybrid reduces emissions if it's run on power from a natural-gas-fired power plant, especially from one of the better ones, which are called combined cycle plants. Unfortunately, plug-in hybrids are unlikely to charge up on natural-gas power because of the costs of operating natural gas plants. Utilities tend to operate them mostly in peak periods, because their fuel is expensive. What's more, natural gas prices are rising because North American natural gas production has peaked and hauling the stuff across oceans is expensive. Plug-ins cause much less climate pollution than regular hybrids if they're juiced up on renewables or "advanced coal with sequestration." This last option, technically called "integrated combined cycle gasification with carbon capture and storage," is an experimental technology with promise but also a lot of technical barriers still to cross. Read more about it in this book by Simon Fraser University's energy guru Mark Jaccard.

assumptions

The chart is really interesting, but I would like to know the assumptions that went into it, specifically about length of trip.  Obviously, some assumption was made about "average" length of trip, because there is a bar segment for both electric and gasoline emissions.  Whereas in reality, for a short trip, you may not use any gasoline at all.

I think that before we can conclude that plugin hybrids are really worse for the climate, we need to look at the assumptions behind the calculations, particularly as they relate to how the car is actually used.

Plug in Hybrids

I'll post some numbers. Cause the idea that plug-in hybrids are worse for the environment than regular hybrids is wrong. It is based on the fact the coal has higher greenhouse emissions per BTU than oil but. But what it overlooks is that fossil fuels are converted to electricity in an electric power plant with much higher efficiency than they are converted to either electricity or mechanical motion in a car. (This is true for a number of reasons including the fact that a car engine has to be light.) So you produce electricity so much more efficiently in a power plant, even from coal, than you do in a gasoline engine that all the other losses in an electric car or plug-in hybrid  don't overwhelm the gain. Neither line losses or battery losses make up for the difference in generating efficiency.

Now it is also true that plug-in hybrids or electric cars run on coal may cut emissions, but not as much as we need to.  But nobody thinks we can reduce greenhouse emissions without cutting emissions from electricity generation in any case. And a plug-in hybrid cuts overall emissions a little now, while our grid is mostly fossil fuel, and a lot more if we switch our grid to renewables.

Where does that well-to-wheel chart

Where does that well-to-wheel chart come from?
Where's the source data from?

I'm not entirely sure NRDC would be honest when it comes to biofuels.
http://www.stanford.edu/group/efmh/jacobson/E85ResptoComm ...

And I'm also not very fond of the US-DOE lifecycle analysis either because it admittedly delivers a gross underestimate of the total emissions.
http://greyfalcon.net/n2o.png

-David Ahlport

Hold on now.

In contrast, recharging your state-of-the-art lithium-ion battery with 20 miles' worth of electricity takes hours, maybe even all night.

Thats just incorrect.

Takes a Tesla Roadster 3.5 hours to charge up for ~250 miles.

A Phoenix Motors SUV could get a 100 mile charge in 1 minute.  Given enough current.
http://greyfalcon.net/quickcharge
http://greyfalcon.net/quickcharge3.png

Even the old EV1 could get a pretty quick 20%-80% charge in under a half hour.
http://greyfalcon.net/quickcharge2

And unlike fuel tanks, the storage capacity of batteries shrinks over time, and may eventually require costly replacements.

There's a silver lining to that though.
http://greyfalcon.net/plugins5


-David Ahlport

Thanks!

Thanks for those awesome links about ride-hopping and high-tech hitchiking. I've had similar thoughts but I didn't know how far along people were in getting it to work. Very illuminating stuff.

I also think that taxis can benefit from technology. Instead of renting a whole car, you rent a seat on a taxi shuttle. Airport, company, and mall shuttles already do this, but if you put sharable shuttles all over the city, and compute optimal routes in real-time (and you give people the option of having a "stop" along their route like with subways, for a cheaper price, so that routes are more sharable), you could cut down on car usage alot. These sorts of schemes work really well with congestion pricing or (why the heck not?) cap-and-drive (only 1000 cars are allowed to drive in the city center at one time, handled by computerized real-time auction pricing, etc.)

No guarantee, so just give up?

[R]eplacing gasoline and diesel vehicles with electric ones will eventually be a climate plus -- assuming the electric power system gets cleaner over time. But that's a big assumption. The only guarantee of clean plug-ins ... would be a firm, descending legal limit on greenhouse-gas emissions.

Just because it's not guaranteed, it's not worth pursuing?  The existence of "clean power" programs from local utilities shows clear consumer demand for renewable energy.  If customers ask for it, and agree to pay for it, it will be built.  Even coal power gets cleaner each decade, as better and cheaper scrubbing technology becomes available.  Even if it's not guaranteed, I think it's a pretty safe bet that the grid as a whole will get cleaner over time, just as it has been over the past few decades.

I agree it's important to consider the negatives, and to consider the idea that this may just be a fad or a pipe dream like hydrogen cells, but you seem to be straining a little to find something, anything to criticize.

-- A.

Taking accounting to the extreme since 2004.

hybrid fans, a debate on oildrum...

...about hybrids, here

Gar,

did you see the response to your wind proposal by bill hanahan?  He posted it here at at the end of your generate-all-electricy-with-wind post

I disagree

According to my understanding, overnight charging during off-peak hours contributes a negligible amount to emissions.  In other words, power plants aren't shut down at night, they simply "spin down" to a lower output than peak.  Your theory that when you plug in your car someone at the coal plant says "Hey Vinnie, start stokin' her up, we got a big one!" is incorrect.  You wouldn't even be a blip on the electric grid radar, more on par with your neighbor turning on their electric dryer or firing up the hotplate for some late night griddle cakes.

Powerplants really do produce power

MrLee wrote: Your theory that when you plug in your car someone at the coal plant says "Hey Vinnie, start stokin' her up, we got a big one!" is incorrect.

It is not incorrect and is in fact what occurs.


Oh, Bulls#!t

First, as much as the bicycle fanatics among us would like to see it there isn't going to be some mass conversion from cars, trucks and SUV's to bicycles and transit anytime soon. At least not voluntarily.

II. Claiming that any increase in power generation needed will come from burning new coal is also bs. Power plants have to burn coal and dams release water overnight. Generators and turbines at coal plants are not allowed to significantly slow down at night as it takes quite a bit of time to synchronize them and bring them online. That's why they call it "spinning reserve." Even if 100% of plug-in power comes from coal it is still more CO2 efficient than burning gasoline in individual cars. The numbers are fairly clear on this from multiple sources. Of course batteries are the ideal partner for wind power.

Thirdly, the current engine in the Prius is oversized compared to a properly designed plug-in hybrid. At most any PHEV should have a maximum range of 6 hours driving at freeway speed (60 mph) using a micro diesel to supplement the grid charge. Just for the safety of the rest of us a driver should stop about then. That drops your ICE parasitic weight by half as a small engine burning less fuel from a smaller tank etc, etc. Stop the car, take a walk, get some lunch, plug the car in or let the genset spin. Even with the batteries completely drained a smaller genset could provide a 25 mph "limp home" speed.

D. Even existing diesel engines can burn petroleum/hydrogen/natural gas/propane/veggie oil blends with minor modifications A duel-fuel diesel (gas/liquid) emits a lot less CO2 and soot than a standard unit for power output. It also can be smaller still than a reduced size gasoline generator. I would also point out that a mixture of hydrogen, methane and liquid hydrocarbons is exactly what you get out of a biomass pyrolisis rig that you would use to create char for Terra Preta. That would be carbon negative fuel for a vehicle.

Combined, production of diesel-electric, plug-in hybrids would give a vehicle base that could operate on almost any combination of fuels like solar and sorghum or wind and woodchips. Should there be an accelerated climate change or peak oil crisis we will still need some vehicles to serve as taxis and service vehicles. Even having one percent of the total fleet could be crucial in an actual fuel emergency.  

Put the Carbon Back

Hybrids Are 8-Track Players


Wake me up when the streaming audio arrives: hydrogen fuel cell powered vehicles.

Note to the author: while you may be "car free" you're not "house free" as I am (I live in a one bedroom apartment).   You need an entire infrastructure of a home and all it's energy needs (including a garage just so you can charge your plug-in).

Me, I have a car that I use when needed, but mostly I ride my bike.

why stop there?

Make me up when they perfect magic, jabailo.

(Until then, we only have engineering ... the science of the possible.)

I did, retroactively ...

Make me up when they perfect magic ...

(Until then, we only have engineering ... the science of the possible.)

You're welcome.

--- G. R. L. Cowan, boron internal combustion fan
How shall cars gain nuclear cachet?
http://www.eagle.ca/~gcowan/boron_blast.html

the science of the possible

So what's actually possible right now G., given our  infrastructure and social constraints?

(Some people don't like to think of "designing for acceptance" as engineering, but I do.  Books like Mastering the Dynamics of Innovation, and The Innovator's Dilemma reinforce my view.)

Interesting report from RAND

While not addressing plug-in hybrids, a new working paper from the RAND Corporation finds that hybrids are certainly better than flex-fuel vehicles (FFVs):

Among the key findings from the consumer perspective:

For all three vehicle types, the advanced diesel offers the highest savings over the life of the vehicle among the options considered. These savings increase with the size and fuel use of the vehicle: $460 for the car, $1,249 for the SUV and $2,289 for the large pick-up truck.

The hybrid option has smaller but still considerable savings for SUV applications ($1,066), moderate savings for pick-up applications ($505) but minimal savings over the life of the vehicle for car owners ($198).

The vehicles operating on E85 cost all three owners more over the vehicle life, with a greater net cost burden for larger vehicles and increased fuel consumption: (-$1,034 for cars, -$1,332 for SUVs, -$1,632 for pick-ups).

Both the hybrid and diesel vehicles are more fuel efficient than their gasoline-powered counterparts: 25 to 40 percent better for hybrid and 20 to 30 percent for diesel, depending on the vehicle.



These are only my personal opinions.
Rand Report

I've had a big knock-down, drag-out, with Randall at FuturePundit about that report.  I started Friday morning, when I was known to be grumpy, but still I think I have a valid complaint.

The Rand Report, like some others, relies on "equivalent conventional vehicles" for its modeling.  It does not compare across vendor, model, and technology ... instead it looks for matches in everything but technology.  If vendor X makes model Y in gas and diesel, they dive in.  Same if a vendor A makes model B in gas and hybrid.

The thing is, you depend a lot on those vendors doing the best possible design for their market segment, and putting equal talent and innovation into gas-or-diesel or gas-or-hybrid.

I say Phooey (even though I am not really grumpy at the moment).

What you really want to do is define a segment (like "small sedans" or "midsize suvs") and then scan across all makes, models, and technologies, to see who is the best of the best.

I think in midsize cars, judging for emissions first, cost second, the Prius is a clear winner.

In small cars it might be a shoot-out between the Honda Civic Hybrid and the Honda Civic GX (natural gas vehicle).

Most of Alan's conclusions are counter to the

EPRI/NRDC report he cites. The report clearly shows that if we build plug-in hybrids they will reduce greenhouse gases over both conventional cars and hybrid cars, today and on into the future. Go read the report. It is enlightening and heartening.

Researchers drew the following conclusions from the modeling exercises: Annual and cumulative GHG emissions "are" reduced significantly across each of the nine scenario combinations [my emphasis].

The only scenario where plug-in cars would be slightly worse than hybrids (but still much much better than coventional cars) is a fictional world where all power is generated by coal. The bar chart above is one Alan built to support his argument from data he found in the report (he left out a lot of information). That particular chart does not exist in the report.

In the end, it all comes down to biodiversity. Poison Darts--Protecting the biodiversity of our world

The more I learn...

the more I realize there really is no such thing as a "good" car.

eddy out, redboat
The Chart

Heh, I just looked at the chart, saw that the Plug-In Hybrid would be a net win on C02 for my power mix, and called it a day.  I skipped the text because that seemed to be the bottom line.

(I get 'power mix' tags from my electric company: 16% renewables, 11% large hydro, 17% nuke, 41% natural gas, 15% coal.)

What is a power mix tag?

Too lazy to google.

Plug-ins might put pressure on utilities to use lower carbon sources. People who drive them will want to be able to say they produce less CO2 than their competitors. Of course, that could only happen if utilities were market driven and beholding to the wants of consumers.

In the end, it all comes down to biodiversity. Poison Darts--Protecting the biodiversity of our world

power mix

I think I've linked to it before.  It's a little slip SCE puts in with our power bill to tell us projected and actual sources for our electric power.

The internets being what they are, you can see it as a pdf.  Page 2 is the interesting part, projected and actual for 2006.

SCE is funny.  They always "project" 7% coal, even though it can go (in bad years like 2005) as high as  38%.  Our 2006 "actual" of 15% is a little nicer.

Carbon taxing and trading

Well that's a relief, all we need is a carbon tax (so politicians can waste the money with more study of and subsidies for  nuclear, clean coal, fuel farming, oil war, and so forth.

And a "free" market in carbon emissions so that hedge funds have another trading game to scam with insider trading.

Forget about new technology, like plugin hybrids, it will take care of itself.  Once tax policy and carbon traders eliminate GHG.  

Meanwhile we can all be carfree by renting an (6% efficient according to Amory Lovins)infernal combustion vehicle from flexcar.  Thanks Alan.

You have shown the way to eliminating the 26% of GHG emission that comes from transportation.  

Really there was no need to actually drive the plugin hybrid on batteries (how many times did you drive it before the computer needed a reboot?) or have someone test drive it who understood technology well enough to reboot it.

You knew all along that plugin hybrids are just another fad and they emit more GHG than a regular hybrid.  Good for you.  Thanks for helping Cheney and friends witrh their energy policy agenda!

When will you and your kids be signing up to go to iraq, iran, syria or whatever oil war is next?  

Thanks Alan.

http://amazngdrx.blogharbor.com/blog John Schneider, Northern Wisconsin

Car Sharing

I think you missed a big plus point with the carsharing model.

It reverses the thinking of the car driver. When you own a car, you have already made an investment into lots of things (insurance, car, parking permit) to name a few. It makes sense to drive it, you need to get that value our of it.

With carsharing, you drive less because it costs real money when you drive, not the other way around. You get creative.

Even better, the service I use, PhillyCarShare, uses the Prius for 1/2 of their fleet.

be careful with cost claims

First, IMO an excellent article.  But it repeats a common misunderstanding about costs.  

Maintaining transportation infrastructure requires funds.  Currently, most of those funds come from gasoline(1) taxes.  Electricity is lightly taxed and the taxes that do exist fund government activities related to electricity or general purposes.

A meaningful shift to electricity away from gasoline would result in a shortfall in transportation funds.  Taxes would then need to be levied on electricity consumed for transportation purposes.

As an example of the required magnitude, take California.  Current pump prices of around $3.35 per gallon include about $0.62 in taxes (federal and state excise of $0.36 and state sales of about $0.26) (2).  This represents 18% of the pump price (or a 23% increase on the pre-tax price).  Very roughly, we would expect that electricity used for transportation purposes would be taxed similarly, percentagewise.  (Oddly, the internal efficiency of the electric vehicle could result in an even higher percentage tax on the electricity!)

Of course, a real economic analysis would include this.  But it would also include the reduction in health care expenses and other benefits of lower ground level pollution.

(1) or diesel

(2) See http://www.eia.doe.gov/bookshelf/brochures/gasolineprices ...
or
http://www.energy.ca.gov/gasoline/gasoline_q-and-a.html


tesla presentation misleading

Related to this, please see my inquiry to Tesla Motors a month ago.  As of today they still have not updated their seriously but simply flawed analysis regarding biodiesel:

...I refer to the Flash preso slide 11 of "bconverted.swf" that is accessed from page http://www.teslamotors.com/blog2/?p=25

 This slide uses a value of "18.21 kWh per gal" and footnotes the reference as "Anguilla Electric Company, 2001 average".

There are two problems with this value, a minor one and a larger one.  First the minor one:  If anyone checks the most recent annual report from Anguilla at http://www.anglec.com/Anglec__Report_2005.pdf
 they'll note that 2001 was an anomaly with respect to performance.  The performance in the four years from 2002 through 2005 ranged from 17.02 to 17.46.  This is 4% to 7% below the value Tesla uses.

Second, and more importantly, Anguilla Electric Company presents their figures in imperial gallons (IG).  An IG is about 20% larger than our usual U.S. gallon (gal) - per Google 1 gal = 1.20095042 IG.  Thus, the kWh/gal is 16.7% lower than the kWh/IG.

Note: If you use the average kWh/gal for Anguilla for several years and make the IG/gal correction you'll find that the diesel generator efficiency is about 3.8kWh/L, which is "normal" based on the research I've done.  My research includes data from several companies, including Anguilla.

I should also mention that one should use delivered kWh rather than generated kWh for this analysis.  Some honest estimate for transformer and line losses is necessary.

I think the right thing to do is to correct this error ASAP and notify any parties that may have quoted or relied on the figures impacted.  I'm sure you'll agree.

It doesn't change your story, but it's a meaningful difference.

Electric cars have great potential.  I assume Tesla wants to do the right thing and tell the truth, the whole truth, and nothing but the truth.  The conservative principle should guide us in this along with our humility in trying to distill such complex issues as full life cycle GHG emissions for various transportation fuels.

Please let me know by the end of the week that Tesla has corrected the error and communicated the change.  

I wanna have that cool car

The car is cool but doesn't like the looks of its bumper. And if I'm going to have that car, I'm sure I'll change its bumper.

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