Adapting to climate change?

Vancouver's submerged seawall

Posted by Coby Beck (Guest Contributor) at 8:48 PM on 30 Dec 2006

Read more about: Vancouver | climate | climate change impacts

I took these pictures a couple of days ago along the seawall in downtown Vancouver. Every month there are a few high tides that flood the sidewalk, not always completely like this, but sometimes a good 20 cm (8 inches) over. How many cities will lose similar attractions with, say, a meter more of sea level rise?

For story: Adapting to climate change?
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ecco il destino della Serenissima

In fact, my third reaction to the first shot, the one with the little dog's backside, was, Yipes!, I would not want to be sitting in those seats, dangling over the water! So it makes sense to read that the water is usually not there.

Vancouver is a remarkably pleasant, comfortable, humane city. Surely, few cities can match it.

But Venice, la Repubblica Serenissima, is a treasure, part of all humanity's patrimony. And it seems ever more clear that we are going to lose her, if nothing is done.

On "global weirding": here in NYC, we have had a record-challenging snowless December. Meanwhile, in Denver, they have had rather more snow than they can handle.

On regular serious flooding: so far that has not been a problem, here in NYC. But I wonder why Mayor Bloomberg has been advocating big new building projects, and why there is an impressive amount of new fancy-schmancy residences along the Hudson River in lower Manhattan. How confident can those developers and buyers be? What do their insurance agents tell them?

Chickens deserve our true friendship! So do fish! So do other sentient beings! Let us learn to be kind.

by caniscandida at 2:40 AM on 31 Dec 2006

Snowmobiling

They are snowmobiling on dirt here canis. There is so little snow it disappears into dirt after only a few of these infernal machines roar over the trail.

But the good folk have spent 10s of thousands on all that stuff, so they are damn well going to get their money's worth! A few beers and they don't notice the brown "snow".

Ahh the smell of internal combustion in the morning! Nothing smells better to real americans.

A local theater is advertising an ice-fishing comedy show, they mention laughter at "40 below".

It hasn't even gone to 20 below here for 10 years. And we are supposed to debate very politely with global climate change deniers?

Meanwhile lake levels keep dropping and invasive insect species thrive on decimated tree species.

http://amazngdrx.blogharbor.com/blog John Schneider, Northern Wisconsin

by amazingdrx at 7:53 AM on 31 Dec 2006

ski cams

Real-time ski cams from the slopes in rural Pennsylvania: http://www.skiliberty.com/webcams.htm

Ped Shed Blog

by Laurence Aurbach at 10:19 AM on 31 Dec 2006

Albuquerque,

...New Mexico has 10-24 inches, just in the last day or two. They also had more rain this summer than the last 50 years or more.

Incredible.

by KathyF at 10:44 AM on 31 Dec 2006

News?

I was really surprised when the 2'+ of snow they got in Denver was news, and the fact that my freakin' quince tree is blooming in Massachusetts in December is not. Huh? I mean, don't we expect snow in Denver? People seem to have a surprisingly adamant bias against cold weather, despite the fact that they've chosen to live in parts of the world with seasons, and when those seasons start going away, it doesn't seem to bother them.

The 2' of snow at home in NM, though, seems like the one normal thing that's happened this winter. I mean, I get that that's not necessarily the norm historically, but within my lifetime, it is. When I was a kid I went sledding all the time at my house in Santa Fe, skied from Thanksgiving till Easter on a fully-open ski mountain (recently, they've struggled to open at all before Christmas, and closed early a lot, though it used to be that they complained about the Forest Service not letting them open early and close late).

So, in the midst of all this warm, wet gloom, I am happy to hear that our monsoons came back somewhat over the summer and our snow came back at least somewhat this winter. It feels normal to me, anyway.

by willa at 4:58 PM on 31 Dec 2006

More . . .

Here in Maine we have just two inches of snow on the ground and we've gotten a total of just 4-5 inches this month. It's supposed to rain tonight and tomorrow and then warm up into the 40s during the day next week with more rain. And this is in "ski country"! I have to say I don't miss the whine of snow machines in the background where I live (a trail passes way down back (it used to pass over our land but I stopped that when I moved here - I was not very popular but the noise and stench whenever I wanted to go skiing down back were just unacceptable). But I'd rather have the whine than the weather we've been having this year. I hope people are paying attention but most are bemoaning the "weird winter" not really thinking that this could become the norm soon, if it isn't already. I believe climate change is happening much quicker than most people want to admit. I was thinking tonight maybe a good thing to do is begin planting trees that are more adapted to winters with few days below freezing but that can withstand a bit of cold because that could still happen (forget below zero, we haven't seen that here in Maine except for one or two nights in three or four years). Because we're going to lose our maples, firs, etc.

by SMLowry at 5:03 PM on 31 Dec 2006

Willa

I am so with you on your quince tree being more news than lots of snow in Colorado. And I, too, am sick of the idea that the perfect day must be sunny and warm, even in Maine, even in what should be "the dead of winter". It bothers me a great deal, deeply saddens me, that we're losing one of our seasons -- one of my favorite seasons in fact, and to be frank, it pisses me off that so many people who live here, supposedly of their own free will, seem to be welcoming the effects of climate change.

by SMLowry at 5:08 PM on 31 Dec 2006

global warming...

...is not real. It's all lib propaganda!!!

Al Gore is personally responsible for the different weather patterns across the United States with his pompous ego!

Lib media made up all these stories to ramp up the destruction of the US economy!

Hear more about this in Fox News (the only real and unbiased news channel)!!!

by atreyger at 7:23 PM on 31 Dec 2006

Not to play spoiler...

but a few examples of extreme weather events doesn't mean very much of anything. I too believe global warming is a serious problem but it is exactly the type of unscientific- oh my god, we are having no snow this winter or oh my god record snow this winter- that makes environmentalists lose credibility. Stick to the facts, you don't need anything more than that- and you need trends to make a case, not single data points- please....

J.S.

Economic Illiteracy Harms The Planet! www.voicesofreason.info.

by Jason D Scorse at 8:38 PM on 31 Dec 2006

but...

This has been happening for the past six years (at least). I was hoping that 2001-2002 winter (with 69 degree temp for one January day in upstate NY was a fluke). I was kind of hoping that last winter (with continuous 50-60 degree temps in January) was kind of a fluke too. But, let's see, one snowy (average) winter out of the last six? I don't know... Let's not claim unscientific, if the trends ARE there. Record breaking rainfall and flooding in NY and PA this summer? Record snowfalls in CO and such this winter? How about above average temps in FL? Or the never-ending El Ninos (supposed to be 15 year cycle, now almost annual)? Has anyone heard of such facts prior to last decade?

by atreyger at 1:08 AM on 01 Jan 2007

Willa

Two feet of snow in Albuquerque is definitely not the norm, while it isn't that unusual in Santa Fe (they received 32 inches). Even the snow totals varied wildly in Abq according to the altitude.

And Jason, I for one am not saying any of this proves anything, except that extreme climate can take many different forms all over the globe. One day I suspect the UK and northern Europe may face freezing weather again while the rest of the world bakes.

by KathyF at 6:20 AM on 01 Jan 2007

2' in ABQ

Well, the people who built a ski area at Sandia Peak obviously thought Albuquerque got snow. I mean, I get that 2' in one storm is somewhat unusual, I just don't think--based on my memory of 25 years of skiing in New Mexico--that it's the biggest climate-weirdness news, so I'm somewhat perplexed when it's treated that way.

I must also say I despise the weather we're having here in the Boston area today--wet and chilly and rainy, too warm to really put my horses' winter blankets on but too cold and wet to leave them "naked". If it would just get cold, they'd actually be able to stay much warmer, because the snow doesn't soak them like rain does. How anyone--even someone who doesn't understand climate change--can think this is better than multiple feet of snow is completely beyond me...

by willa at 6:48 AM on 01 Jan 2007

people who like climate change...

...won't get this cartoon:

http://cartoonbox.slate.com/hottopic/?image=2&topicid...

by willa at 6:52 AM on 01 Jan 2007

Boycott!

"Not to play spoiler..."

Only read the title, hehey.

http://amazngdrx.blogharbor.com/blog John Schneider, Northern Wisconsin

by amazingdrx at 8:38 AM on 01 Jan 2007

Jason

Weird weather in itself doesn't prove climate change, you're right. But weird weather is a sign of it. I understand your concern about environmentalists losing credibility by shouting "climate change!" every time something strange happens because strange weather is often (less often these days, unfortunately) followed by normal weather which then allows skeptics to gain points, painting environmentalists as crying wolf.

Re: facts: Facts are great but personal experience helps makes those facts real, visceral, and more meaningful. In my opinion, linking the many instances of weird weather currently happening around the globe (I get a regular e-newsletter from www.climatecrisiscoalition.org that provides links to articles around the world in various categories) to climate change is essential. Otherwise people will find a way to dismiss what they learn is going on elsewhere (like the UK, Siberia, France, . . .) as well as the strangenesses they are experiencing where they live. Fact is, these events are all connected, as is everything and everyone on Earth.

And anyway, as has been pointed out, strange weather is no longer an isolated experience but has become a trend: the warmest years on record have occurred in last ten years, I believe; consistently below normal snow here in the northeast for several years now; snow by christmas no longer assured and (I intuit) no longer the norm; melting permafrost, glaciers, and all happening faster than scientists had thought; islands already lost to rising seas, most recently the inhabited island of Lohachara in the Bay of Bengal; bears no longer hibernating in Spain; bears here in the northeast didn't take to their dens until a couple of weeks ago, much later than normal; I could go on but you get the idea.

People need to hear these things. They need to understand that what is happening is major, isn't going to go away, and isn't going to be solved by by simple, painless means. In fact, I've begun to think that perhaps the most I can do is to bear witness to what I see and experience, to not keep my mouth (and keyboard) shut, and instead of moving to be closer to my son and new inlaws I should, instead, be looking to move to a community that takes the issues facing us seriously enough to be planning for that uncertain future we all face. Finding such a place, however, may be difficult as I bring with me a disabled, brain injured younger sister and all her attendant issues. Anyway . . .

by SMLowry at 9:17 AM on 01 Jan 2007

Now then!

Hey Coby

You have the same problem as a whole bunch of good ol' boys n gals. You don't have your head stuck in the sand man!

Now before you go out and start shooting anyone who owns a private jet or luxury yacht just hold on.

Even if there was a shred of truth in such a ridiculous idea as global change:

a) what are you going to do to stop it?
and
b) Mr Joe Average in every place from Carmel to Timbuctoo is the cause and he ain't
planning to do nothin different unless and until he's flooded out or fried crisp.

So, do be sure to find sand on high ground to bury your head in - otherwise you could end up all a splutter in the flood water!!!!

by Fishmarket at 10:25 AM on 01 Jan 2007

See

This kind of talk only encourages the deniers. Then we get to reargue over decades old wing nut talking points.

The latest recycled one? It's just a natural cycle.

http://amazngdrx.blogharbor.com/blog John Schneider, Northern Wisconsin

by amazingdrx at 10:55 AM on 01 Jan 2007

Luckovich's fish

Willa, yes, it is a cute cartoon. But I cannot interpret the circular space beneath the fish's eye in the second panel.

I agree that the unusually heavy snowfalls in Denver and Albuquerque are not the weirdest of weather phenomena. The back-to-back blizzards in Denver received so much news coverage apparently because of their effect on air travel. I only mentioned the Denver snow because it was a very unusual event, at the same time as we in the Northeast are experiencing very unusual conditions of a different sort.

KathyF, I was told during my year in Santa Fe that they rarely get much snow during the winter, usually no more than a light dusting. Up on the Sangre de Cristos, though, where the skiing is, is another matter.

SMLowry, thanks for mentioning climatecrisiscoalition.org. As was pointed out by a recent letter-writer from Greece, Grist tends to be rather US-focused, hence of less interest to readers elsewhere. And that particular focus is not unreasonable, for a couple of different reasons; and they do provide links to a wide array of environment-related blogs. But they themselves can do only so much, and that does not include your fascinating item about the bears in Spain no longer hibernating.

I wonder where there are bears in Spain: surely along the Cantabrian coast in the north, e.g. in the Picos de Europa in Asturias? That is a remarkably green and well-watered region, and it would be a pity if it dries out, from too little cold weather.

Just to the south, the Castilian plateau has always had a brutal climate. In the historic northern Castilian city of Burgos, birthplace of El Cid, the climate is proverbially described as "nueve meses de invierno, y tres meses de infierno," "nine months of winter, and three months of hell." But it seems that the plateau is getting warmer at a surprising rate, and Hell is extending its reach. A short distance east-northeast of Burgos is the Rioja valley, where some of the best wine in Spain is made. Let us hope that those vineyards can hold on for a while longer. Ditto, for the vineyards in California.

Chickens deserve our true friendship! So do fish! So do other sentient beings! Let us learn to be kind.

by caniscandida at 11:51 AM on 01 Jan 2007

Sandia Peak

is located several thousand feet above Albuquerque. That's why they get snow there, but when I lived in Abq there were years when they couldn't even open due to lack of snow. In fact, we only had one significant snowfall of 4 inches while I was there. So yeah, this is a pretty major weather event for them. Not to mention there are still people stranded around the area, unable to get off the interstates.

Meanwhile 2006 is the warmest year on record for Great Britain. I'm sure both phenomena have something to do with the fact that I'm here now and not in NM. I am some sort of warm weather angel.

by KathyF at 12:30 PM on 01 Jan 2007

A dilemma

Could anyone explain to me why global warming, attributed to increasing levels of atmospheric greenhouse gases, can be solved by people using less energy?

Let us suppose each of us can reduce our energy use by 50%. How precisely does this help if at the same time the world population increases by 50%?

The idea that we can somehow ease our way out of climate change by conserving energy is unconvincing.

by Fishmarket at 9:42 AM on 02 Jan 2007

Fishy fish fish

You gotta conserve 50%, sequester CO2 back out of the atmosphere by increasing conservation land, eliminate CO2 by installing wind as baseload power to replace fossil and nuclear, and use distributed renewable storage and generation with 100s of millions of solar buildings and V@G plugin serail hybrid vehicles.

That will reverse global climate change within a decade as the developed world follows the most cost effective competitive solution once its is embraced by the worlds largest consumer nation, US.

The developing world will follow along, and as standards of living increase they too will embrace reproductive rights for women, halting the exponential poulation growth.

Leadership, you don't get it from a shaved ape though. You gotta have an actual human as prez of the US. We will try again to convince you all to embrace actual human leadership in '08. please consider it!

http://amazngdrx.blogharbor.com/blog John Schneider, Northern Wisconsin

by amazingdrx at 9:53 AM on 02 Jan 2007

snow

Kathy,
I used to go to races at Sandia every year. I'm 27 now and was on the Santa Fe ski team starting when I was 6 and ending when I was 18; we used to have no problem with having enough snow throughout NM, and in my early teens I remember training with the Sandia kids who had to come up to Santa Fe because Sandia never opened. It was only in my late teens that I started having to do crazy shit like driving to Steamboat to train for two weeks because Santa Fe and Sandia were both closed.

Canis,
Anyone who told you the city of Santa Fe doesn't normally get more than a dusting was either crazy or lying. Where I grew up in Tesuque is a few miles north of the city but at about the same elevation as the northeast side of town, and I have many pictures of myself sledding, of the trees and trucks and houses buried under more than a foot of snow, of the horses with thick blankets of snow on their backs (they love it!), etc. It's been a while, but I ask the older folks I know who have been around SF longer than I have, and they all tell me the 80's and early 90's were more "normal" to them than the last ten years have been.

by willa at 10:10 PM on 02 Jan 2007

snow in Santa Fe

Willa, my sources in Santa Fe had all kinds of reasons for misleading me. By "light dusting," the source in question went on to say, "The snow is rarely deeper than the top of one's shoes." But he had his motives for telling me that, and I much prefer to trust you.

The anecdotal evidence about the last ten years in SF is interesting. I assume that means: the climate is warmer, there is less precipitation, including snowfall, and water conservation has become a serious concern? That is the way people were talking when we were in NM a couple of years ago.

Chickens deserve our true friendship! So do fish! So do other sentient beings! Let us learn to be kind.

by caniscandida at 1:32 AM on 03 Jan 2007

climate change _partly_ normal?

One thing that was said a lot in environmentalist circles in Santa Fe when it first started getting so dry was, "It's not a drought, it's a desert." Which is to say, it's still freaky that it's too warm in the winter to snow much, but the fact that it's too dry all year round to rain or snow as much as people expect isn't entirely shocking. It is speculated, based on tree rings and whatnot, that the last 60 to 80 years were the wettest years in NM in, I believe, 500 years. Back in the 1940s, there was a lake with swimming areas and a diving board in the valley of what is now the entirely underground Galisteo River (it still runs when there's rain, but mostly it just keeps the ground wet for miles and miles of riverbed), and they say the grass was green and lush all the way from Santa Fe to Albuquerque along I-25 where now it's brown and dry and bare, with sparse tufts of half-alive grass.

So, I'm also keenly aware that what I see as "normal," and what seems so within living memory, has to be compared to the geological record.

I still think several feet of snow is the default for this time of year, though...

by willa at 5:29 AM on 03 Jan 2007

methane hydrate

To amazingdrx

For a real wow take on the subject go to

http://www.bbc.co.uk/radio/aod/mainframe.shtml?http://www...

Be sure to listen to episode 6 where Jim Kennet talks about methane hydrate reservoirs.

Regards

by Fishmarket at 11:33 AM on 03 Jan 2007

Here's Something Grist.org ignored

Scientists Work on Map of Climate Change
http://www.physorg.com/news86585073.html

This work...

by jabailo at 11:53 AM on 03 Jan 2007

Dramatic Sea Rise?

How old is that park area? If that was built 40 years ago do you really think that is due to anthropogenic sea rise? The ocean hasn't raised that much.

by wacki at 3:37 PM on 06 Jan 2007

finally, on topic!

Hi wacki,

Here's my tentative hypothesis:
- the city has guidelines for minimum elevation
of public areas by the sea
- this minimum is written down in some dusty book
in cityhall
- it was established a long time ago when the
downtown first started to develope rapidly
- maybe when first established it was based on
decades old standards

no one is adjusting it or thinking about it
the ocean has quietly risen ~15cm in the

last 100 years
- architects/civil engineers copy it without
question into plans for new construction.

I hope to investigate this at some point in the near future, it doesn't strike me as too far fetched. The alternatives would seem to be:

no city guideline to keep things above high tide
a screw up by someone somewhere
intentionally left below the really high tide

line to periodically inconvenience people
(and dogs - mine BTW!)

What do you think?

"What if this weren't a hypothetical question?" -- unknown

by Coby Beck at 11:28 PM on 06 Jan 2007

bad formatting

Sorry for the bad formatting, I didn't know the comment software would do me the favour of bulletted lists.

"What if this weren't a hypothetical question?" -- unknown

by Coby Beck at 11:29 PM on 06 Jan 2007

Vancouver

Hi Coby,

I am not sure, but I always thought that the idea was that the benches were sturdy enough to be used when the area wasn't flooded, which was most of the time.

And that of course, it was cute and confusing the rest of the time.

It always struck me as part of the Vancouver style of humor, but maybe I'm wrong.

patrick

by bookerly at 2:43 AM on 08 Jan 2007

you forgot one other factor..........

Coby,

You should add to your list "is the park sinking?"

Yellowstone park has shifted tremendous amounts in a very short time. All of this is due to the rather scary caldera or "super-volcano". There could be some geological mechanism playing a hidden roll under your park.

Good to see your blog exploding with comments, you deserve the attention!

by wacki at 11:22 PM on 08 Jan 2007

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