'Antarctic ice is growing'

How to Talk to a Climate Skeptic

Posted by Coby Beck (Guest Contributor) at 9:28 AM on 06 Nov 2006

(Part of the How to Talk to a Global Warming Skeptic guide)

Objection: The Antarctic ice sheets are actually growing, which wouldn't be happening if global warming were real.

Answer: There are two distinct problems with this argument.

First, any argument that tries to use a regional phenomenon to disprove a global trend is dead in the water. Anthropogenic global warming theory does not predict uniform warming throughout the globe. We need to assess the balance of the evidence.

In the case of this particular region, there is actually very little data about the changes in the ice sheets. The growth in the East Antarctic ice sheet indicated by some evidence is so small, and the evidence itself so uncertain, the sheet may well be shrinking.

But even this weak piece of evidence may no longer be current. Some recent results from NASA's GRACE experiment, measuring the gravitational pull of the massive Antarctic ice sheets, have indicated that on the whole, ice mass is being lost.

Second, ice-sheet thickening is not inconsistent with warming! Warmer climates tend toward more precipitation. The Antarctic is one of the most extreme deserts on the planet. As it warms, we would expect it to receive more snow. But even a whopping warming of 20 degrees -- say, from -50 degrees C to -30 degrees C -- would still leave it below freezing, so the snow wouldn't melt. Thus, an increase in ice mass.

While on the subject of ice sheets: Greenland is also growing ice in the center, for the same reasons described above. But it is melting on the exterior regions, on the whole losing approximately 200 km³ of ice annually, doubled from just a decade ago. This is a huge amount compared to changes in the Antarctic -- around three orders of magnitude larger. So in terms of sea-level rise, any potential mitigation due to East Antarctic Ice Sheet growth is wiped out many times over by Greenland's melting.

For story: 'Antarctic ice is growing'
7 Comments | Post a Comment

Confused data

As I have repeatedly stated,
Greenhouse (Global) Warming is not well supported.

Actually a more accurate term is "global cooling" due to global drought.

Yes it appears to be getting warmer... but if you remove clouds it appears to get warmer, but that is not a real warming. Because the air is getting dryer, it is cooler than it would otherwise be.

Confusion throughout the literature, and many mouths speaking total crap.

Well when you really understand what is happening, then maybe something can be done.

Until then the problem is progressing on as it should, with no one standing in its way.

We are truly fortunate that climatic changes are highly buffered, and change, even though it is accelerating at a great pace, is nevertheless a slow process for human beings. Insidiously slow.

by Zarkov at 2:51 PM on 06 Nov 2006

So...

... what you are saying is that it is not the heat it is the humidity?

Let me get this straight... A global drought is causing cooling? Which is recorded as globing warming because drier air contains fewer clouds, therefore letting more sunlight in and warming the air? So what we perceive as warm temperatures are actually cooler. And as the air further cools and loses moisture, it will get warmer? But this is because it is getting cooler.

I see... well, no. I don't see.

I'm afraid I have to accept the consensus of the scientific community, who might have a better handle on climatology, physics, and science in general.

by wiscidea at 3:05 PM on 06 Nov 2006
[ Parent ]

Deserts

>> And as the air further cools and loses moisture, it will get warmer? But this is because it is getting cooler. >>

LOL, well you almost closed the logic loop, but not quite.

Lets look at deserts, what we get is a blistering day temperature... no clouds, full clear sky sun.
BUT we also get freezing nights..... clear skies, the heat loss is dramatic.

The air becomes dry and does not heat up as much as it would if there was a high humidity AND also a clear sky.

So if that region of land was not a desert, then with clouds, both maximum(down) and minimum(up) air temperatures would be moderated.

Now because there are no clouds, the desert land has actually warmed, but the air is less hot that it would be if...... both land and air are just gaining a no weather temperature,
just as at night a similar logical situation arises.

But to us the desert is both much warmer and colder.

The ground may approach 90 or more degrees centigrade, the air 50C during the day, at night there could be frost formed from the little water in the air.

You may now appreciate, when you don't know what is happening, the initial climatic picture can be very confusing.

Remove water vapour and we travel towards a Moon climate. We may only know this once we arrive. This is not good enough.

by Zarkov at 6:50 PM on 06 Nov 2006

You can't keep doing this

Look, this the second time you've hedged. You can't say "I absolutely know why" and set out to disparage everyone else with name calling, and then write this Be All and End All guide and then suddenly punt at the end and say "well, this isn't well understood".

All we are saying is that Yes, It's Hotter than in the past 200 years. Agreed. Yes, we should not "pollute". Agreed. But is CO2 the main driver of global warming? We need to know more!

And the reason is this: We may overlook the forest for the trees. All the time we are buying hybrid cars to reduce CO2, we may not be applying attention to some more powerful cause of Global Heating, and hence be sideswiped.

by jabailo at 11:58 AM on 03 Mar 2007

There's a chicken and egg argument here

When the comment section to the 'Antarctic' thread is just used by s(k)eptics to repost other stock talking points, ignoring the fact that those have been addressed in other threads, this whole collection gets recursive really fast.

by hank at 5:55 PM on 02 Aug 2007

Having your ice and eating it

"Second, ice-sheet thickening is not inconsistent with warming! Warmer climates tend toward more precipitation. The Antarctic is one of the most extreme deserts on the planet. As it warms, we would expect it to receive more snow. But even a whopping warming of 20 degrees -- say, from -50 degrees C to -30 degrees C -- would still leave it below freezing, so the snow wouldn't melt. Thus, an increase in ice mass. "

So, glaciers melt, this is evidence for (or at least not against) global warming. Antarctica gets bigger - this is also evidence for global warming. What could happen that ISN'T evidence for global warming? Any chance of any predictive hypotheses that could be verified in the future?

by TheKidSalami at 6:14 AM on 02 Jul 2008

Antrctic Ice is Growing

Is it really all that unclear whether Antarctic ice is increasing or decreasing? Please note the following:

"And down south last September, NASA satellites showed the Antarctic Ice Field to be the largest it has ever been in the 30 years it has been observed by satellite (based on an analysis of 347 million radar altimeter measurements made by the European Space Agency's ERS-1 and ERS-2 satellites)."

This is from an anti global warming site:
http://www.middlebury.net/op-ed/global-warming-01.html

by Ron Lambert at 9:11 AM on 19 Jul 2008

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