What Saudi Arabia wants, Saudi Arabia gets

And they want us to stay in Iraq

Posted by David Roberts at 12:31 PM on 30 Nov 2006

Speaking of the Iraq War, you may have heard that VP Dick Cheney was "summoned" to Saudi Arabia recently by the crown prince. You may also have heard that Bush recently resumed his "stay the course" rhetoric, vowing not to withdraw troops no matter what the Baker Commission says.

Seems those two facts are connected. Seems Saudi Arabia really doesn't want us to leave Iraq, which they apparently communicated to Cheney in no uncertain terms.

Now they're openly threatening that if the U.S. withdraws they will arm Sunni militias (to back them against Iran-armed Shia militias) and sharply boost oil production, thereby cutting oil prices in half and undercutting Iran's economy.

This is particularly comforting:

To be sure, Saudi engagement in Iraq carries great risks -- it could spark a regional war. So be it: The consequences of inaction are far worse.

Virtually everyone has acknowledged that Iraq is a horrendous mess. But as Kevin Drum wisely reminds us, and this episode illustrates: it could get much, much worse.

Oil got us there. Oil threats from autocratic bullies are keeping us there.

Tell me again how expensive renewable energy is?

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Global warming will make Middle East a wasteland.

I have hosted Saud royals in my home a number of times, gave some night rides in gimbaled Boeing seats suspended inside a big solar dish mirror.

We discussed tribes, energy policy, and enemies. I remember their words like pictures, and read the Qu'ran to better understand their messages and methods. Believers can not lie.

Saudi Arabia is the most sunny place on Earth. They want solar technology before the oil runs dry. Much the same logic Iran uses for nuclear power.

Saudi Arabia is mostly Sunni and they most fear Iran Shiites. They planned to end the 1973-1985 oil embargo for a number reasons, most prominent was to reduce the threat from Iran. This had the side effect of the USSR collapse because the Soviet military-industrial complex was financed with hard currency from oil exports.

The collapse of oil prices in 1986 ended investor support for renewable energy.

A new Islamic war financed by oil will flood the world with cheap oil and the atmosphere with carbon.

This smoldering civil war dates back to the life and times of the Prophet Mohammad, a struggle between his descendants and his lieutenants.

by sunflower at 1:58 PM on 30 Nov 2006

Cheap oil or expensive oil?

sunflower...

Won't the first step for each side be the disabling of the other's oil infrastructure?

Iran has also tested an underwater missle that could easily take out oil tankers.

I would expect the price of oil to soar as the rest of the world competes for oil from other regions -- which will allow each side to finance the war by selling what they have left at a higher price.

by wiscidea at 2:21 PM on 30 Nov 2006

And don't forget...

...We still haven't started on Cheney's plans in Iran:

http://www.newyorker.com/fact/content/articles/061127fa_f...

http://www.rawstory.com/news/2006/Pentagon_confirms_Irani...

Hopefully the Saudis talked some sense into him on this front...

by jjwfmme at 2:35 PM on 30 Nov 2006

There is only one thing to do...

The U.S. must create an independent Arab Sunni state in Iraq and Saudi Arabia must become its protector. One for the Kurds and one for the Shiites as well.

It would also be nice if everyone in the new independent states (Sunnis, Kurds, and Shiites) could receive a share of the oil revenue from former Iraqi territory... like the folks in Alaska get. It would give people something to live for.

Iraq was created by the British. It must be dissolved by their heirs.

My limited imagination sees no other course for avoiding an ethnic/economic/ecological disaster in the Middle East.

by wiscidea at 2:43 PM on 30 Nov 2006

Proxy wars

The Iran-Iraq war did not stop the flow of oil. The flow of Iran's oil is not a target of Cheney. Even Osama bin Laden does not target Saudi oil. And most amazing, the oil of Iraq is still being exported.

The Islamic civil war will be fought in Iraq. Oil prices are the international weapons of choice.

Market instabilities will occur, but there will be plenty of oil. These combatants will not want to encourage market alternatives to oil.

by sunflower at 2:56 PM on 30 Nov 2006

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