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How to Talk to a Climate Skeptic

'Warming is due to the Urban Heat Island effect'


Posted by Coby Beck (Guest Contributor) at 9:31 AM on 28 Oct 2006

(Part of the How to Talk to a Global Warming Skeptic guide)

Objection: The apparent rise of global average temperatures is actually an illusion due to the urbanization of land around weather stations, the Urban Heat Island effect.

Answer: Urban Heat Island Effect has been examined quite thoroughly (PDF) and found to have a negligible effect on temperature trends. Real Climate has a detailed discussion of this here. What's more, NASA GISS takes explicit steps in their analysis to remove any such spurious signal by normalizing urban station data trends to the surrounding rural stations. It is a real phenomenon, but it is one climate scientists are well aware of and have taken any required steps to remove its influence from the raw data.

But heavy duty data analysis and statistical processing aside, a little common sense and a couple of pertinent images should put this idea to bed. Here is an image, taken from Astronomy Picture of the Day (a wonderful site, by the way), of the surface of the earth. It is a composite of hundreds of satellite images all taken at night. (The large version is well worth the download time!)

Aside from being very beautiful, it is a perfect indicator of urbanization on earth. As you can see, the greatest urbanization is over the continental United States, Europe, India, Japan, Eastern China, and generally coastal South America.

This next image was taken from NASA GISS. It is a global surface temperature anomaly map which shows warming (and infrequently, cooling) by region.

Look at North America, look at Europe, at Asia, Australia, Africa and the Poles and compare them to the urbanization in the image from APOD. There is quite simply no way to discern any correlation whatsoever between urbanization and warming. If the UHI effect were the cause of warming in the globally averaged record, we would see it in this map.

The claim that global warming is an artifact of the Urban Heat Island Effect is simply an artifact of the Urban Myth Effect.

Addendum: Wikipedia has a very good article on this subject. Among all the interesting details it mentions a few papers that directly discuss efforts to identify and quantify UHI influences on the global temperature trend including this one (PDF), which would be a good one to cite:

A 2003 paper ("Assessment of urban versus rural in situ surface temperatures in the contiguous United States: No difference found"; J climate; Peterson; 2003) indicates that the effects of the urban heat island may have been overstated, finding that "Contrary to generally accepted wisdom, no statistically significant impact of urbanization could be found in annual temperatures." This was done by using satellite-based night-light detection of urban areas, and more thorough homogenisation of the time series (with corrections, for example, for the tendency of surrounding rural stations to be slightly higher, and thus cooler, than urban areas). As the paper says, if its conclusion is accepted, then it is necessary to "unravel the mystery of how a global temperature time series created partly from urban in situ stations could show no contamination from urban warming." The main conclusion is that micro- and local-scale impacts dominate the meso-scale impact of the urban heat island: many sections of towns may be warmer than rural sites, but meteorological observations are likely to be made in park "cool islands."

If necessary, be sure to refer to all the other ways we know the global warming trend is not an artifact of anything. It is real.

Excellent piece coby

Simple, concise, and powerful, very well done Coby.

Just so your readers know, this myth was put forth 'in part' by the economist Ross McKitrick among many others.  Heh, I'm not done with his profile page either so no link. :p

Just curious, did you come up with the graph comparison by yourself or did somebody else point it out to you?

eh.....

by "graph" I mean "image".  Gotta love posting in 10 seconds or less!

inspired by APOD

I thought of that when I saw the picture of the earth at night.  It seems so much more satisfying than statistical analysis and all the other technical opacity.  It seems it is hard to argue with, I don't recall anyone yet having any answer for that, besides just ignoring it an making an end run.

Thanks for the feedback! :)

"What if this weren't a hypothetical question?" -- unknown

Heat island effect is real, but accounted for

Coby, while your conclusions are perfectly fine, I think that your argument would be stronger if you started with more of an explanation of the heat island effect, which after all is the main reason why our cities have been dramatically heating up over the past decades.  Refusal to acknowledge this is what gave such ammo to Crichton and others.

Erroneous thinking

This comparison of images is completely erroneous. For it to be valid you'd need to map the change in urbanization vs heat anomalies over the same (and much longer than one year)_ timescale.From that you'd see that the urban heat effect is very real and accounts for the majority of 'global warming'.

My Sympathies

A typo once posted...

Why is there no edit? And don't say because there's a preview. Really, why?

"thoroughly investigated?"

I noticed that you linked to an article by Thomas Peterson:
" 40 clusters were compared using data from 1989 to 1991. Contrary to generally accepted wisdom, no statistically significant impact of urbanization could be found in annual temperatures."
um, he looked within a narrow range of 2 years - in US-only data - and didn't find a significant effect. That's not exactly a refutation.

What about Michael's study?

It's here.

He goes over the ground carefully and reaches a pretty big conclusion - that the heat island effect is NOT properly compensated for.

skeptics working on it

Anthony Watts at surfacestations.org has been looking at US surface stations. With a team of dedicated skeptics he's been collecting photos and data on weather stations that are likely biased by local conditions (biased upwards temps), on the premise that the US temp record fails to properly account for the UHI effect.

Watts and his team have collected a good number of sites they think are of good standard. At the time of this post [transferred from illconsidered blogspot - posted late February 2008], they're about a third of the way through the project.

They have plotted the US temperature profile using only the sites they think sound, and have compared with the profile as given by the US Climatology Network (http://cdiac.ornl.gov/epubs/ndp/ushcn/newushcn.html), which is used by GISSTEMP and HADCRU.

So far, the results provide a very good fit.

http://yaleclimatemediaforum.org/features/1007_surfacetem ...

That article links to climateaudit, a well-known skeptical site run by Stephen McIntyre, which has been working on the data from the 'good' weather stations as determined by Watts' team. In the thread doing the math on the preferred data stations, this is the post (below) where one of the skeptics, John V, compares the surfacestations.org data with USCHN.

http://www.climateaudit.org/?p=2124#comment-147569

Even the skeptics are getting the same result as the mainstream. If anyone is sincerely interested in this subject, the surfacestations/climateaudit project now spans three threads (the post above is from the second one, which is 300 posts long), and it will be interesting to see the results when they complete their project. [If the results have been updated, I would be interested to know]

As a side note, I consider the discussion going on in this climateaudit thread to be the very best example of the skeptical community putting their money where their mouthes are. It is a substantive, polite investigation, and while they have begun with their conclusion (not very scientific), they are genuine in their efforts. When so much skepticism (and advocacy, for that matter), is couched in ignorance and vitriol, this project champions the best of the skeptical community. Let it be a standard-setter for all sincere discussion on climate change.

And, the US temperature profile looks almost exactly the same when all the urban data is excluded, which is one thing that is done to test for UHI.

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