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How to Talk to a Climate Skeptic
'One record year is not global warming'Posted by Coby Beck (Guest Contributor) at 8:02 AM on 31 Oct 2006(Part of the How to Talk to a Global Warming Skeptic guide) Objection: So 2005 was a record year. Records are set all the time. One really warm year is not global warming. Answer: This is actually not an unreasonable point -- single years taken by themselves can not establish or refute a trend. So 2005 being the hottest globally averaged temperature on record is not convincing. Then how about:
The five-year mean global temperature in 1910 was .8 degrees Celsius lower than the five year mean in 2002. This, and all of the above, comes from the temperature analysis by NASA GISS.
There is an interesting quote from that page: Record warmth in 2005 is notable, because global temperature has not received any boost from a tropical El Niño this year. The prior record year, 1998, on the contrary, was lifted 0.2°C above the trend line by the strongest El Niño of the past century. So, yes it is true that one record year does not make a long term trend, but that is clearly not the whole story.
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